Ray of Hope - 114th Draw
- Thread starter rza313
- Start date
@NikSharma01 @skg1988 @13nitinsharma
The snapshot is taken right in the beginning of the day i.e. midnight UTC whereas the draw happens during the day. The numbers seem to reconcile correctly:
Vacant slots on beginning of 29 Mar (midnight) : 1143
451+ candidates not given ITAs : ~180
(This is so because there are ~3600 candidates between 441 to 450 so simple average and continuity of density implies ~360 at 451. If these 360, approximately 180 would have gotten through and 180 are still left.
Number of days : 5.85 (they made us the entire day UTC on 3 April so 0.85 is factored in)
Average inflow of applications = (1143 + 180) / 5.85 = 226
The number 226 is in sync with the speed (222) we observed in the previous fortnight.
I can give you probabilities -
4/10 - 5 percent
4/15 - 3 percent
4/17 - 75 percent
4/18 - 2 percent
4/22 - 3 percent
4/24 - 10 percent
4/25 - 2 percent
Guys (@skg1988 @13nitinsharma ) - do you agree?
I can give you probabilities -
4/10 - 5 percent
4/15 - 3 percent
4/17 - 75 percent
4/18 - 2 percent
4/22 - 3 percent
4/24 - 10 percent
4/25 - 2 percent
Guys (@skg1988 @13nitinsharma ) - do you agree?
Thanks, I guess those number are based on stats from previous draws. If you are right it's boding well for me as I will be able to create and submit my EE profile on 04/11.
keyur sharma
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Next draw 99% - April 17I can give you probabilities -
4/10 - 5 percent
4/15 - 3 percent
4/17 - 75 percent
4/18 - 2 percent
4/22 - 3 percent
4/24 - 10 percent
4/25 - 2 percent
Guys (@skg1988 @13nitinsharma ) - do you agree?
Tentative draw 1% - April 10 (If draw happens after one week)
Well as per my assumptions, out of the inflow of the applications with 451+ points, was 2207 on March 29, which surely would have got the ITAs each out of the 3350. As a result 1143 ITAs were left. If those ITAs are also given to the same applicants with 451+ CRS. That means those applicants would have entered into the pool from March 30 to April 3. So it makes the average as below:
1143/5=228.6
Correct me if I'm wrong! @SeniorStakes @skg1988 @13nitinsharma
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