Ray of Hope - 114th Draw

[PS_001]

Guys, can someone please share the link to the Ray of Hope - 115th Draw. I am unable to find it.

 

[SeniorStakes]

Guys, can someone please share the link to the Ray of Hope - 115th Draw. I am unable to find it.

https://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-discussion-board/threads/ray-of-hope-115th-draw.620013/page-17

 

[PS_001]

https://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-discussion-board/threads/ray-of-hope-115th-draw.620013/page-17

Thanks!

 

[SeniorStakes]

Any prediction for next draw

450 or 451

 

[SeniorStakes]

My score is 447 and my birthday is on 31 july, on that date i would lose 4 points and my score would be 443. What are my chances. Please help

Everyone loses 5 points on Birthday. How come you will lose only 4 points?

 

[SeniorStakes]

I don't understand this guys. On Mar. 29 there were around 2200 candidates over 451 in the pool. It has increased to 3350 in only 5 days?

@NikSharma01 @skg1988 @13nitinsharma

The snapshot is taken right in the beginning of the day i.e. midnight UTC whereas the draw happens during the day. The numbers seem to reconcile correctly:

Vacant slots on beginning of 29 Mar (midnight) : 1143

451+ candidates not given ITAs : ~180

(This is so because there are ~3600 candidates between 441 to 450 so simple average and continuity of density implies ~360 at 451. If these 360, approximately 180 would have gotten through and 180 are still left.

Number of days : 5.85 (they made us the entire day UTC on 3 April so 0.85 is factored in)

Average inflow of applications = (1143 + 180) / 5.85 = 226

The number 226 is in sync with the speed (222) we observed in the previous fortnight.

 

[aurelero]

Probably a stupid question but I was wondering if there is a way to know when is the next draw?
There seems to be no pattern when I look at the latest 6 draws.

 

[SeniorStakes]

Probably a stupid question but I was wondering if there is a way to know when is the next draw?
There seems to be no pattern when I look at the latest 6 draws.

I can give you probabilities -

4/10 - 5 percent
4/15 - 3 percent
4/17 - 75 percent
4/18 - 2 percent
4/22 - 3 percent
4/24 - 10 percent
4/25 - 2 percent

Guys (@skg1988 @13nitinsharma ) - do you agree?

 

[aurelero]

I can give you probabilities -

4/10 - 5 percent
4/15 - 3 percent
4/17 - 75 percent
4/18 - 2 percent
4/22 - 3 percent
4/24 - 10 percent
4/25 - 2 percent

Guys (@skg1988 @13nitinsharma ) - do you agree?

Thanks, I guess those number are based on stats from previous draws. If you are right it's boding well for me as I will be able to create and submit my EE profile on 04/11.

 

[keyur sharma]

Any prediction for next draw

450

 

[13nitinsharma]

I can give you probabilities -

4/10 - 5 percent
4/15 - 3 percent
4/17 - 75 percent
4/18 - 2 percent
4/22 - 3 percent
4/24 - 10 percent
4/25 - 2 percent

Guys (@skg1988 @13nitinsharma ) - do you agree?

Next draw 99% - April 17
Tentative draw 1% - April 10 (If draw happens after one week)

 

[13nitinsharma]

Any prediction for next draw

Prediction:

April 17 - CRS 449/450 - 3350 ITAs

 

[NikSharma01]

@NikSharma01 @skg1988 @13nitinsharma

The snapshot is taken right in the beginning of the day i.e. midnight UTC whereas the draw happens during the day. The numbers seem to reconcile correctly:

Vacant slots on beginning of 29 Mar (midnight) : 1143

451+ candidates not given ITAs : ~180

(This is so because there are ~3600 candidates between 441 to 450 so simple average and continuity of density implies ~360 at 451. If these 360, approximately 180 would have gotten through and 180 are still left.

Number of days : 5.85 (they made us the entire day UTC on 3 April so 0.85 is factored in)

Average inflow of applications = (1143 + 180) / 5.85 = 226

The number 226 is in sync with the speed (222) we observed in the previous fortnight.

Well as per my assumptions, out of the inflow of the applications with 451+ points, was 2207 on March 29, which surely would have got the ITAs each out of the 3350. As a result 1143 ITAs were left. If those ITAs are also given to the same applicants with 451+ CRS. That means those applicants would have entered into the pool from March 30 to April 3. So it makes the average as below:
1143/5=228.6

Correct me if I'm wrong! @SeniorStakes @skg1988 @13nitinsharma

 

[13nitinsharma]

Well as per my assumptions, out of the inflow of the applications with 451+ points, was 2207 on March 29, which surely would have got the ITAs each out of the 3350. As a result 1143 ITAs were left. If those ITAs are also given to the same applicants with 451+ CRS. That means those applicants would have entered into the pool from March 30 to April 3. So it makes the average as below:
1143/5=228.6

Correct me if I'm wrong! @SeniorStakes @skg1988 @13nitinsharma

Makes sense, agreed.

 

[13nitinsharma]

@NikSharma01 Lets move to 115 ROH, we all are already there.