For all those pondering and feeling chaotic about the 2019 Canadian Elections. Here is a very comprehensive assessment on the election situations and the position of current Canadian government. Neverthless, the elections are in Oct 2019 and not right away in Q1 of 2019 as I believe, most think.
Better keep working on the options available and not just sit like a duck (the mistake I committed during 2016 - 17)
P.S. I wish I could write like this person (the following text) and would have bombed IELTS scores (wishful thinking).
Source:
https://www.quora.com/Will-Justin-Trudeau-win-the-next-2019-election-in-Canada
Odds are that Justin Trudeau will be re-elected in 2019, but that’s not because he’s doing a particularly good job or because his opponents are unusually bad.
In the entire history of Canadian federal politics, going back to Confederation, only two prime ministers with majority governments were thrown out after their first term: Alexander Mackenzie in 1878 and RB Bennett in 1935. What did they both have in common? They governed during global economic depressions in which times were desperate, by which I mean more desperate than most Canadians alive today can remember. It is very rare for Canadian voters to want dramatic change after giving a sizeable mandate to a government only four years earlier. However, I concede that we live in the era of Trump and Brexit, but still..
On the whole, I would give this government a C-. They have kept a few of their major campaign promises (bringing in more Syrian refugees, belatedly legalising marijuana, and reversing some controversial Conservative measures); however, a large number of the widely advertised and ambitious planks of their platform, conveniently enough made when the NDP was surging ahead, have been either unceremoniously broken, significantly watered down or indefinitely shelved (electoral reform, First Nations rights and spending, subsidies for the tar sands, MSM blood donation ban, green infrastructure and many others). Arguably, they targeted certain demographics who were leaning NDP during the 2015 election with promises that might not have been entirely genuine.
Now, none of this will necessarily cost them re-election, necessarily, however, it will take a toll.
According to the Library of Parliament, this government has also broken a historical record for passing the least amount of legislation of any majority parliament in roughly two generations (at least). As far as I am concerned, this government is unambitious, feckless, short-sighted, cynical and lacking in vigour. Its reputation for being progressive “change agents,” is largely the byproduct of successful marketing (reinforced by symbolism and Trudeau’s carefully constructed persona).
Anyway, in my opinion this is not an incredibly strong government, however, it will likely get re-elected anyway. The country is doing okay (albeit storm clouds are on the horizon) and while Trudeau’s personal popularity has come down from its absurd heights of 2016, a large plurality of Canadians are still willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. That will PROBABLY not disappear in only two years time.
Contrary to what others might claim, Trudeau’s re-election will not hinge on how well the NDP does. That’s a commonly held myth in Canadian politics. We haven’t had an American-style, strict, two-party duopoly at the federal level since 1921, and while there is often significant overlap between NDP and Liberal support, party support in Canada can also be extremely fluid (voter turnout and protest votes from populist minded voters can have an enormous impact too. Swings between the Right and Left are not unheard of either).
Indeed, the federal NDP’s second best result was in 2015. The result of that election was of course a Liberal majority. At one point during the 2015 campaign, several polls put the Conservatives in third place behind both the NDP and Liberals, and likewise some recent polls have suggested that the Conservatives could win with a weaker NDP while the Liberals could win with a more competitive NDP. The cynical notion that a “vote for the NDP is a vote for the Conservatives,” is a dishonest scare tactic trotted out by Liberals to sap NDP momentum whenever it emerges. There is no invisible law preventing a party called “NDP” from winning where it hasn’t before (ask Rachel Notley), and likewise if the Liberals lose to the Conservatives they’ll have nobody to blame but themselves (but expect them to try to blame the NDP).
When the 2015 election would’ve produced an NDP government with a Liberal opposition:
http://poll.forumresearch.com/da...
http://poll.forumresearch.com/da...
NDP polling higher than 2015 results, with the Liberals still holding a healthy lead over Tories:
https://www.ipsos.com/sites/defa...
http://www.nanosresearch.com/tic...
NDP weaker than in 2015, yet Conservatives well ahead of Liberals:
http://poll.forumresearch.com/da...
http://poll.forumresearch.com/da...
The only way Justin Trudeau’s Liberals could lose in 2019 would be under one (or both) of two scenarios:
Scenario 1 - Justin Trudeau pulls a Jim Prentice, overestimates his personal popularity and underestimates his opponents, comes across as cocky and arrogant on the campaign trail and during the debates, and inadvertently gives an opponent (Scheer or Singh, maybe both) the chance to excite voters and build momentum.
Scenario 2 - Trudeau gets blindsided by the issues, and goes into the election assuming that he can control the narrative only to find that the narrative has been defined by his opponents (think back to the halfway point of the Democratic primaries in which Bernie Sanders gave Hillary Clinton realistic cause for concern with an unapologetic social democratic agenda, or Jeremy Corbyn who made what was “supposed” to be an election about Brexit, an election about inequality instead. True, Sanders and Corbyn “lost,” but they came much closer than they were “supposed” to, Sanders changed the Democratic Party forever and reinvigorated its progressive faction, while Labour came in only 2 percentage points behind the Tories in the popular vote and held them to a minority - Corbyn could be prime minister yet). My point is, if Trudeau loses it will probably because he either assumes that the election is in the bag, or underestimates how strongly Canadians feel about a particular issue (NAFTA negotiations COULD provide that issue as Trump is unlikely to make any fair offers).
As his buddy and strategist, Gerald Butts once said: “arrogance is the Liberal Party’s kryptonite”. Trudeau almost blew it in the run up to the 2015 campaign because he became too complacent. That complacency could return (I’m not saying it will, but it could).
Andrew Scheer is a less threatening version of Stephen Harper with a unified and competent opposition caucus behind him and a pretty solid and reliable voter base. His dorky dad vibe can be dismissed as “lame,” but bear in mind he doesn’t have to beat Trudeau at his own game in order to win (a lot of voters prefer politicians who seem down to Earth). On the other hand, Jagmeet Singh is a charismatic, engaging and interesting opposition figure whose personal resume is actually significantly more impressive than Trudeau’s was before 2015 (he’s also a better debater, has more policy depth and a more interesting backstory). The Liberals would be fools to underestimate either of these opponents.
Still, yes odds are that Justin Trudeau will win re-election in 2019 (however, neither Andrew Scheer nor Jagmeet Singh can be discounted). 2023 should be more interesting.