Predictions for 8th Draw :: Dates of Draw | CRS Cut-off Score | No of ITA Issued

[ayamach]

Hi everybody,

the way I see it, there are two possibilities :
- Either CIC wants to slow their system down a little in order to invite all the best profiles (450+) and NOT invite the "little profiles", but eventually, if they want to meet their annual quota, they will have to let more people in. In this situation, we ca expect people around 380+ to get an invite maybe around Q4 when it's time for CIC to wrap up the annual cycle;
OR
- It was just an "adjustment" draw (which might happen again throughout the year), and things would go to normal next draw. Hopefully scores would continue to go lower until it reaches a certain point.

I'd say the first possibility is the most realistic, because in this scenario, CIC get to invite the best profiles of the YEAR, and not the best profiles of EACH DRAW

That being said, this is pure speculating, and it's pretty useless since NOONE can know what they're gonna do next! hell they can even empty the whole pool if they want to...

For info, I'm aiming for FSW 440 once i've completed one year of experience in France

 

[ButterflyChemist]

I am not sure if there would be hidden caps for now but I think they will have to make some arrangements for some specific NOCs. Like for example PhD
graduates are being totally ignored in current EE system despite the fact Canada need PhD professors for its Universities which are a good sources of generating revenue. In IT i feel there are more candidates in jobs like system/computer/software development engineers with small/medium sized companies and these employers are helping candidates in getting LMIA or PNP. For other 0/A/B NOCs other than software/computer engineers working in medium/large companies LMIA or PNP is a bit slow.
So CIC will definitely have to put and limit some caps in near future as they wouldn't want people only in specific occupations like computer/system/software. CIC always had immigration granted to people on a specific number per occupation base. EE system is blind for now, if 800 out of 950 are software/computer engineers then what about people in other occupations.
For the candidates in pool, I assume it would always stay around 22k-25k. How many people applied under FSW when there was 25k quota for the whole year. I believe hardly 15K would have applied in FSW last year when there was no education assessment required at all.
EE needs one to have enough money in short time in order to do assessment, language exam, POF, medical etc etc.

FSW has always required educational assessment to proof equivalency of education received outside Canada. EE is a selection process not an immigration program. The immigration programs (FSW, CEC etc) have not changed, only the method of selecting the candidates that get invited to apply for PR for each of the programs that fall under EE.

Furthermore,I do not for a second think EE is blind. There's a reason why PNP and LMIA holders are guaranteed a spot. Canada (the relevant provinces and SC) has pre-determined that there is a need for them and so they are more likely to hit the ground running and do well. Certain occupations are not in demand and I feel that even with certain point limits these people will be choosen last. Quite a few persons have posted having the relevant points but not getting ITA for a certain draw and this can be why. They have NOCs that are not in demand right now.

I would also not look at the numbers and worry about CIC meeting there targets. That their problem not ours. Canada doesnt just want people in numbers, they want people who can adapt and contribute. They aren't just gonna let everyone in to meet a target number.

 

[Oka]

I was waiting for my turn @430.
But it was a big surprise with the last draw.

But in real, this looks fair from cic point of view.

1.Main objective is to invite more potential candidates rather than reaching the target numbers.
2. This way they r enlightening/forcing the people to improve their scores.
3.Now many people will re think to take ielts to improve their scores, apply for wes , spouse ielts, spouse eca, second language if possible.
4. I think CIC giving time/ waiting to people to improve their scores and make it more competetive.
5.This way score will be standardized at certain level. Becaz still there are more chances or ways to improve the scores for people who are sitting below 400.and for cec candidates who are sitting at 430 and below.
6. I think, who ever moves fast in improving the scores they have good chances above 450 So far.
7.Another point, once the job Bank is ready and employers get adapted to this system there will be job offers and scores would go above 600 for them.
8. PNP s are also there with which goes above 600 +
9. So finally Cic kept the decision in our hands and fight each other on scores.

Anyways good luck to everyone. And hope for the best.

 

[The_Distant_One]

This is simply not true. There is no distinction between NOCs.

This is a legal process carried out by a government agency, based on laws enacted by parliament. They cannot just do what they want. The ministerial instruction is very clear:

"(2) Foreign nationals who, on April 11, 2015 at 00:00:01 UTC, have been assigned a total of 469 points or more under the Comprehensive Ranking System that is set out in the Ministerial Instructions Respecting the Express Entry System, as published in the Canada Gazette, Part I, on December 1, 2014 and as amended from time to time, occupy the rank required to be invited to make an application for permanent residence."

If there were any restrictions of the type you are talking about, they would have to be listed here. There aren't.

Some people on this forum are confused because they think draws also apply forward. I.e. they believe if they put in their EE profile now with say 470 points, they would get an ITA immediately. This is b/s of course - they need to wait until the next draw, and meet the cut-off criteria at that point in time.

Show me anyone who had a valid (eligible) profile at the time of the draw and didn't receive an ITA. This forum would be up in arms if this were the case.

whilst at the moment you are right the wording is "under ministerial instruction".... I believe they will continue to analyse the pool and if need be the minister will "instruct" them to start choosing certain NOC codes or banning certain codes based on previous draws.

The whole point of the ministerial instruction clause is so they can manipulate it anyway they like and if any group gets up in arms they can always say "well its based off what the minister decides".

 

[SergiiK]

Totally agree that they will be balancing NOCs. It is just simple and in common sence.

 

[2niharika]

I was waiting for my turn @ 430.
But it was a big surprise with the last draw.

But in real, this looks fair from cic point of view.

1.Main objective is to invite more potential candidates rather than reaching the target numbers.
2. This way they r enlightening/forcing the people to improve their scores.
3.Now many people will re think to take ielts to improve their scores, apply for wes , spouse ielts, spouse eca, second language if possible.
4. I think CIC giving time/ waiting to people to improve their scores and make it more competetive.
5.This way score will be standardized at certain level. Becaz still there are more chances or ways to improve the scores for people who are sitting below 400.and for cec candidates who are sitting at 430 and below.
6. I think, who ever moves fast in improving the scores they have good chances above 450 So far.
7.Another point, once the job Bank is ready and employers get adapted to this system there will be job offers and scores would go above 600 for them.
8. PNP s are also there with which goes above 600 +
9. So finally Cic kept the decision in our hands and fight each other on scores.

Anyways good luck to everyone. And hope for the best.

+1

 

[Jfk20101]

Chris says only 10 to 15% of people will be selected from express entry this year rest of the people from previous years. what will be the 15% of 280,000? i would love to know.

 

[Jfk20101]

Citizenship and Immigration Minister Chris Alexander said he expects just 10 to 15 per cent of the immigrants who arrive in Canada this year will have been selected via the new Express Entry application system, a mechanism designed to choose immigrants more quickly to better meet the needs of the labour market. But he expects that figure will rise sharply by 2016.

 

[2niharika]

Chris says only 10 to 15% of people will be selected from express entry this year rest of the people from previous years. what will be the 15% of 280,000? i would love to know.

only 10-15% sure??

 

[manojsr]

only 10-15% sure??

Yes. here... http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/slow-start-for-express-entry-but-new-immigration-system-to-pick-up/article23887404/

 

[manojsr]

Hi everybody,

the way I see it, there are two possibilities :
- Either CIC wants to slow their system down a little in order to invite all the best profiles (450+) and NOT invite the "little profiles", but eventually, if they want to meet their annual quota, they will have to let more people in. In this situation, we ca expect people around 380+ to get an invite maybe around Q4 when it's time for CIC to wrap up the annual cycle;
OR
- It was just an "adjustment" draw (which might happen again throughout the year), and things would go to normal next draw. Hopefully scores would continue to go lower until it reaches a certain point.

I'd say the first possibility is the most realistic, because in this scenario, CIC get to invite the best profiles of the YEAR, and not the best profiles of EACH DRAW

That being said, this is pure speculating, and it's pretty useless since NOONE can know what they're gonna do next! hell they can even empty the whole pool if they want to...

For info, I'm aiming for FSW 440 once i've completed one year of experience in France

I agree with your first thought as well. They might want to buy time for more people to enter in the pool who may be 450+ and conduct draw with fewer invitations. CIC is unpredictable anyway . Obviously, moving from First Come First Server basis (old system) to the Express Entry means they want to drive it and select who should be getting in and who should not, with faster processing time.

I hope there should be some NOC specific capping soon else chances are there that people who belong to a NOC in demand - may not get ITA due to little lower score.

 

[LanaS]

Citizenship and Immigration Minister Chris Alexander said he expects just 10 to 15 per cent of the immigrants who arrive in Canada this year will have been selected via the new Express Entry application system, a mechanism designed to choose immigrants more quickly to better meet the needs of the labour market. But he expects that figure will rise sharply by 2016.

10 to 15 percent of total figure of immigrants arriving this year is 26000 to 28500 of selectees. So far we have about 7000 ITAs. It means that in order to meet the year target there should be about 2000 ITA's by the end of April. 9000 ITAs will reach exactly one third of overall 2015 EE invitations by the end of 1/3 of the year (by the end of the 4th month, April). All is correct

 

[Jfk20101]

I am not worried at all I am a Photographer/Filmmaker will get done with my one year till August and after that is done i plan to Enter the pool and move to Vancouver I still have my visa till 2016, if all fails i plan to move to South Africa. Its a great place to work there film industry is growing.

 

[nazmun2014]

Citizenship and Immigration Minister Chris Alexander said he expects just 10 to 15 per cent of the immigrants who arrive in Canada this year will have been selected via the new Express Entry application system, a mechanism designed to choose immigrants more quickly to better meet the needs of the labour market. But he expects that figure will rise sharply by 2016.
Since the system’s launch on Jan. 1, Canada has invited 6,851 prospective economic immigrants in the Express Entry pool to apply for permanent residency in various categories, from federal skilled workers to skilled trades people and those, including students, in the Canadian Experience Class. The Conservative government pledged to accept up to 280,000 immigrants this year, but the vast majority will be selected under the old system as Canada transitions to Express Entry.
“I don’t expect a huge number to have landed in Canada under Express Entry in 2015, but a growing number will have been selected and approved,” said Mr. Alexander, who was in Toronto Friday promoting what he described as a successful launch for Express Entry.[/b][/b]
“We wanted to get this right and what we’re seeing so far in 2015 is that it is going well. The pool is populated by lots of very qualified people. The processing times for the first successful applicants have been much faster than predicted, and news is getting out that this is a new beginning for Canadian immigration that is faster and more effective.”
Mr. Alexander said he doesn’t expect the new system to significantly alter the mix of Canada’s immigration source countries. India, China and the Philippines remain the largest sources for applications.
“We still see strong interest and immigration flows from Asia … but we also see some new markets responding to the prospects of a faster system,” Mr. Alexander said. “I know in France there’s a lot of interest in Canadian immigration and a lot of interest in Express Entry.”
In one round of selections, the top countries of residence were Canada (foreign applicants who are already in the country), the United States, India and England, according to Citizenship and Immigration Canada (CIC).
Standing in front of cameras primarily from Toronto’s ethnic media outlets, Mr. Alexander formally welcomed three of the first people granted permanent residency under the new system. One of those selected was Emma Hughes, a 29-year-old from Ireland with a degree in industrial chemistry who was working at a Burlington, Ont., chemical company. She applied in early January, was selected in the first round of Express Entry at the end of January, and had her approval for permanent residency by late March, a period of roughly two months.
“That is truly remarkable,” Mr. Alexander said. Under the old system, would-be immigrants could wait up to eight years to have their applications assessed, since it was run on a first-come, first-served basis. Now, the top candidates go to the front of the line right away, he said.
It’s a competitive system, but fair, he added.
Under the new system, applicants are assessed in an electronic pool. They are graded on factors such as age, education and work skills and given a score on a 1,200-point scale. Every few weeks, a cutoff score is selected by the ministry and all those above that score are invited to become permanent residents. CIC has had six rounds so far. Applicants with a Canadian job offer or those nominated by a provincial government have a significant leg-up, as all others can only score a maximum of 600 points. The points cutoff started at nearly 900 points but recently fell close to 450.
Mr. Alexander said one of the challenges he has faced is the perception that applicants will need a job offer to get into Canada, which is not the case. The percentage of people selected with labour market impact assessments is relatively small, he said.

I think it will give clear idea to all.

 

[2niharika]

I am not worried at all I am a Photographer/Filmmaker will get done with my one year till August and after that is done i plan to Enter the pool and move to Vancouver I still have my visa till 2016, if all fails i plan to move to South Africa. Its a great place to work there film industry is growing.

What is your CRS score