I do not know what triggers further PoE scrutiny for PRs who have a valid PR card and use the automated kiosks. Obviously, CBSA utilizes some rule-driven fact-based criteria, and these probably include some random as well as relatively low-threshold risk factors. My strong sense is that any PR might encounter additional questioning on any given occasion when returning to Canada, even though the vast majority of the time PRs will sail through the PoE process easily and without being questioned as to PR Residency Obligation compliance (in all the years I was a PR and returned to Canada many times each year, I never once was asked a single question about RO compliance, but, I'd suggest, it was obvious I was living in Canada and easily in compliance, as MOST returning PRs are).
BUT sure, almost certainly, CBSA has and applies screening methods for identifying if and when a given PR should be asked questions about RO compliance.
Thus, there are a variety reasons why and various ways in which a PR might be referred to a Secondary examination involving inquiries related to PR Residency Obligation compliance. Ranging from some more or less random circumstances to circumstances rather obviously raising questions about RO compliance.
If, for example, a PR was last in Canada YEARS ago, that invites some questions about the PR's presence relative to RO compliance. Indeed, if the PR appears to have been outside Canada for THREE or more years, that on its face appears to be a breach of the PR RO unless an exception credit applies (PR abroad accompanying Canadian citizen spouse for example).
It is apparent that a PRs previous history of entries somehow factors into the screening process, be that merely a manual, visual display of most recent entry dates or a logarithm-driven electronic screening program. In any event, contrary to what many seem to recognize, certain travel patterns tend to be readily identifiable. Some of the IAD cases suggest, for example, that CBSA has identified RO breaches based on a pattern of travel indicating returning to Canada for short visits and otherwise being abroad for extended periods . . . and this has, in effect,
caught some PRs who were in breach when they were returning to Canada with a first PRC which is still valid for more than another year.
It warrants noting, too, that what is COUNTED in CALCULATING compliance is one thing. WHAT might trigger CBSA or IRCC to ask questions or have concerns about a PR's RO compliance can be many things, including as I just noted, a pattern of travel suggesting living abroad and spending only brief periods of time in Canada.
Arrival at a PoE without a valid PR card, for another example, increases the risk a CBSA official will at least make preliminary inquiries to discern if there is cause for a RO compliance examination.
As others have noted and emphasized, for purposes of
the RO CALCULATION itself the date a PR card expires is NOT RELEVANT. All that is relevant is how many days the PR has outside Canada during the RELEVANT FIVE YEARS.
The relevant five years is either:
-- from date of landing to date of fifth year anniversary of landing, if the PR landed less than five years ago; if days outside Canada during this five year period exceed 1095, the PR is in breach of the RO (since being outside Canada for 1095+ days during this period means it is NOT possible to be IN Canada at least 730 days during the FIRST five years following landing)
-- the five years immediately preceding the date of the examination, whatever date that is, for any PR after the fifth year anniversary of landing
Many times the PR's FIRST PR card will expire approximately five years plus a month or three or so after the date of landing. So the expiration date on the card can be a CLUE. That is, it can make a difference in whether a CBSA officer sees reason to ask about RO compliance. In particular, a first card which is still valid for another two plus years is a strong indicator there is NO reason to question RO compliance (there is plenty of time left for the PR to meet the RO). IN CONTRAST, when a PR arrives at a PoE after being absent for two years or more, and presents a PR card which expires somewhat soon, the circumstances suggest (to an officer paying attention) the possibility of a RO compliance concern which warrants at least asking some related questions. And, if preliminary responses suggest the need for a more detailed examination, the PR may be asked to complete a written questionnaire (as to residency related details).
SUMMARY: There are way, way too many variable circumstances which might signal cause for a CBSA officer to make RO compliance inquiries, to attempt enumerating them. BUT once such inquiries are being made, once the PR's compliance with the RO is being examined, the expiration date on the PR card is NOT relevant. Again, what is relevant is how many days the PR has been in or out of Canada during either the first five years, or after the fifth year anniversary, during the five years immediately preceding the day of the examination.