There are TWO schools of thoughts on this. Unfortunately, no one will know what CIC has in mind.
1 - They don't want scores to EVER go below 410 or 400. The logic of this is that if someone has a special skill needed by a province, they are welcome to be nominated by the province and that way, they can move to Canada. The logic of keeping scores above 400 or 410 is that unless you have some kind of special skill which is in need by the province, they want to generally keep the quality of applicants high. Candidates might be educated but most people who have a CLB 9 can manage to be over 400+. The ones who are below 400 are either OLDER or have not got a CLB 9 which are both concerns for CIC. Older immigrants do not contribute enough to the system and have less time to pay taxes compared to the younger lot. Also if you don't have a minimum CLB9, they could argue that it's more difficult to adjust into the Canadian way of life since language skills are something they give a lot of importance to. Strong language skills in one of their 2 official languages is something that helps in jobs and integration. It's also something that keeps coming up in public opinion that immigrants need to speak the language well.
2 - The other school of thought is that they won't mind the scores going below 400 since way back in 2014 in the OLDER system, anyone with a 6 in IELTS was eligible as long as they were in the chosen NOC. Hence if they could allow people with average language skills enter then, why not now? Many of those people have gone ahead and done well for themselves so why the big deal now. Anyone with a 390 could be as good as the people who were chosen then.
The counter argument to point 2 is that immigration worldwide is becoming more and more tighter and stricter. Canada doesn't owe anything to anyone. Australia has recently made their immigration more stricter and its more or less logical with the evidence we have that going forward, immigration to Canada can only get more and more difficult and not easier. LIMA points have been reduced. More points for french. More points for local education. So it's getting more and more tougher for people WITHOUT a Canadian connection or poor language skills. Hence it could only get more tougher over time and not easier.
People argue that Canada needs to reach 100 Million people to be economically at its peak and they always need people. And they need to bring in 100,000 to 300,000 people every year. Yes, of course. But Canada has shown in the last 2 years that restricting it to folks who are younger and with good language skills + PNP program is good enough to bring in the required numbers. There are a lot of people out there who can easily get 400+ and the rest can be covered through PNP. The world is very a large place and getting 100,000 educated people with good language skills is not difficult at all.
At the end of the day, NO ONE knows. IT could be Point 1. It could be Point 2. I just gave both sides to the coin and NO ONE will know.
I would not post this on the Ray of Hope thread since I would not want to bring the spirits of anyone down. I only wish and hope that everyone who wants to go to Canada truly get a chance to go to Canada. Immigration is not easy and EVERY SINGLE ONE OF US have been brave enough to venture into this and I hope everyone one of us get to reach our goal - to be part of this great country.
