As per CIC working inventory data table for Permanent Resident Applicants, uptill December 31st 2010 total 173,050 applicants were awaiting a decision on their files received on or after the priority processing date of February 27, 2008 under Federal Skilled Worker category. This is certainly a huge backlog again. However considering that almost six month has been passed the important thing here is to consider how many applications are still pending.Further the CHC in their recent emails to applicants has already admitted that 144,000 applications are still pending review therefore one may assume that this list will further go done by June 30, 2011.
Considering 35% (assumption) rejection rate and 5% (assumption) withdrawals rate on un-assessed applications, out of total 173000 post Feb 2008 applications the final processing will be done for around 104,000 visa processable applicants. With average 35000 visa quota for Federal Skilled Worker category in my opinion this process will end by 2014 based on assumption that June 2011 M-III policy will continue for next 3-4 years (highly ambitious).
Now everybody can make his/her own estimated time lines. As per my understanding those applicants who have submitted their documents uptill 3rd quarter 2009 have atleast received medical/remedial requests or visa are issued to them. So from October 2009 till June 2010 there are nine months so in nut shall 4th quarter 2009 applicants should assumed that their cases will hopefully be finalized by year end 2012, 1st quarter 2010 applicants should assume that their turn will start after Dec 2012 and 2nd quarter 2010 applicant should pray that by their time another backlog is not created in CHC.