Hi, everyone!
Another interesting observation.
A short backstory:
I have a strange habit of making printscreens of those messages I meet on this forum, facebook, reddit and twitter, which contain any info about someone who got a PPR recently. Then I save all these printscreens in a separate folder with a hope that one day I could compare the real IRCC statistics and my printscreens for some regularity to be found out.
So, here's what I found for
October and what I think about
November:
As we know from
this article, there were
586 FSW COPRs sent in
October.
According to my screenshots, I counted
68 posts about FSW applicants who had gotten COPRs.
So, here's a table:
Month | COPRs sent to FSW | Screenshots |
| October, 2021 | 586 | 68 |
| November, 2021 | ??? | 198 |
The idea behind this short story is that I assume that this forum + Ask Kubeir facebook page + immitracker = around 10% of those applicants.
Theoretically, we could extrapolate this ratio on the whole number of people in the backlog. So, every message with a COPR published here and there could mean 9 more "silent" or "hidden" applicants who also got a golden mail this month but still remain unnoticed.
For
November, I collected
198 screenshots for FSW, which, according to the aforementioned 1:10 ratio, could mean around 2,000 COPRs sent by IRCC to FSW applicants.
In conclusion:
I think we shouldn't expect almost a tenfold increment of COPRs under the November PPR Rain. The real number seems to be around 3 times higher than those we saw in October, I suppose. As a logical but sad result, with this "speed" of 2k per Month, it would probably take up to 25 months for the FSW backlog of about 50k ppl to be cleared. So, I see 2 options:
- The real number of COPRs in November is about 2,000 golden mails. IRCC will shift its officers responsible for CEC to FSW when the CEC backlog will be cleared (around Feb-Mar, 2022).
- I am wrong with my calculations and assumptions.
And I pray for the second option.
