Now, this may be slightly OT, but I still don't get the concept of "buffer". The physical presence is a very "black or white" concept. On any given day, either you are present or you are not. If you have done your homework i.e. kept track of all the trips and made sure that the info available to you (that is the entry stamps into Canada from CBSA and, possibly, the entry and exit records from the US I94, if that is applicable to you) tally up with the trips you have entered in the calculator, I can't see why there should be a problem.
Because if the IRCC officer thinks you are misreporting something, you may be misreporting it whether you have 1100 or 1500 days.
I just don't get it.
The reason for
IRCC's recommendation of a buffer (the recommendation to wait to apply beyond meeting the minimum requirement), which is similar to why the consensus here is to have a week or so buffer, is to allow for the
possibility of a mistake, recognizing that many, many applicants make mistakes (it is worth noting that more than a few forum participants who were totally certain they accurately accounted all dates of travel subsequently recognized making some mistake; also note, those who are absolutely certain they have made no mistakes are quite likely mistaken).
In addition to that, however, my view is also premised on the recognition that it is not just about whether the applicant has made a mistake, but also about the extent to which the total stranger bureaucrat assessing the applicant's physical presence can be confident there is NO possibility of a mistake affecting eligibility.
To a significant extent you are correct. Applicants declaring presence in Canada 200 or even 300 days above the minimum have not only been RQ'd but overtly challenged as to their presence in Canada, and some denied citizenship on the basis they failed to PROVE sufficient presence in Canada to meet the requirements (there are more of these cases going back to when there was a RESIDENCY requirement rather than a PHYSICAL PRESENCE requirement).
However, no overt suspicion is necessary to trigger elevated scrutiny, non-routine processing (including RQ), and potentially lengthy delays in processing time. In particular, it is NOT necessary for the processing agent to think the applicant is "misreporting something" for the application and applicant to be subject to additional, more thorough screening, and thus some delay in getting to the oath.
A buffer reduces risks. It does not totally eliminate risks. A buffer reduces the risk that a mistake will undermine eligibility, so long as the buffer is larger than all mistakes. It also reduces the risk that IRCC will need to engage in non-routine processing to make sure there are no mistakes or omissions which could POSSIBLY undermine eligibility.
How much of a buffer is a good idea varies widely from one applicant to another. Deciding when is the right time to apply is a very personal decision, one dependent on many, many individual factors. Just reaching the minimum threshold is merely one factor, a necessary condition of course, but there are many other things to consider if one wants to minimize the risk of non-routine processing.
Otherwise, no, physical presence is NOT black & white. While that requires an even longer explanation, and would indeed be too far off topic for this thread, it is perhaps worth revisiting some of the basics about the extent to which the routine application depends on an inference of presence rather than direct proof of presence.
Sure, it is true that on any given day a person either is in Canada, or not in Canada. BUT for purposes of meeting the actual physical presence requirement for grant citizenship, the number of days actually in Canada is not at all black and white.
After all, who can affirmatively document, let alone conclusively prove, where they physically were each and every day?
For the majority of days calculated to have been physically present in Canada, for almost all applicants, presence is generally
INFERRED. I have discussed this inference extensively in other conversations, including in particular the inference which is built into the presence calculator itself: the INFERENCE of presence in-between a reported date of entry into Canada and the next reported date of exit. Most applicants benefit from this inference. If, however, there is any possibility (even per innocent mistake) the applicant was not present some of those days in-between a date of entry and next exit, that inference may not hold.
Note, there are scores of actual cases in officially published decisions in which it is emphasized that entry and exit dates do NOT prove presence in-between those dates. This does not arise in the routine case. In the routine case the presence calculator and IRCC do indeed consider the applicant present in-between entry and next exit dates. If there is any concern, however, the dynamics change.
Overall, the amount of buffer which a prospective applicant can anticipate will obviate or at least reduce potential concerns, the amount of buffer which will in effect encourage the total stranger bureaucrat to be comfortable relying on the standard inference (of presence between entry and next exit dates), varies widely. The person regularly and full time employed as a welder in a Bombardier plant (located within a reasonable commute from his residence) for the past three plus years, can probably feel safe and comfortable with a much smaller margin than the applicant who has a sporadic employment history. The Bombardier employee is safe covering possible, small mistakes in dates. The applicant with gaps in employment may want to have a buffer which covers enough time to make the processing agent more confident about relying on the overall calculation meeting the minimum.