Over the last couple of months I have been doing intensive research about the new IRCC processing times with the help of this forum and Immitracker. I also spoke to a couple of nice IRCC agents who provided some valuable information regarding this;
This is the statistics I have accumulated and the new processing times as of 2019 are;
1) 50% of all cases are processed within 6-7 months
This is random and considered a jackpot!! There is really no pattern as to which applications can get processed within this time frame. I have noticed even cases marked RR in the 5th month receiving PPR within 7 months. So it is all pure luck!! You just have to pray you fall into this lucky category.
2) 80% of all cases are processed within 9-10 months
Eligibility Not Started/Met/Recommended Pass and also a few RR cases are processed within this time frame. So if your Eligibility falls under Met/Not Started then this is your new timeline. Not a lot of RR cases are processed under 10 months. However, there are lucky ones who do get processed. So do not worry if you have RR you could still get lucky.
3) 95% of all cases are processed within 14-16 months
Sadly, this is where the dreaded comprehensive Security Screening and Review Required folks fall into. Most RR cases should be processed within 12-14 months. I have rarely noticed a RR case go beyond 15 months. However, when it comes to SS the timeline is unpredictable as it is carried by CBSA and CSIS. Comprehensive Security Screening could last anywhere from 8-12 months. Applicants who fall under this category usually clear the other two stages(Criminality and Eligibility) by the fifth or sixth month. Even after 3 months if your security is still in progress then your definitely in Security Screening.
Now with the introduction of bio-metrics for all 2019 applicants, the security screening times have significantly reduced to 4-6 months. So if 2018 applicants have given bio-metrics then you could also be looking at faster Security Screening times.
4) Remaining 5% of cases are in black hole
If you are still waiting beyond 16 months then it means you have an extremely complex case or you just got picked up by the most laziest case officer in the history of immigration. I came across 3 cases from 2017 that are still waiting for PPR. On further investigation, I found that in one of the cases the spouse of the primary applicant was a felony and served 2 years jail time 5 years ago. The principal applicant cleared all stages but IRCC is taking their time with the spouse's admissibility review.
It is true that IRCC does process 80% of applications in 6 months on average and that was back in 2017. However, as express entry gained popularity, more applicants started flooding in huge numbers because of the relatively low CRS cut-off and as a result IRCC increased ITA's with each draws and in some cases they even conducted back-to-back draws to meet their immigrant goals. It seems they misjudged/miscalculated on handling these huge volumes of applications that were pouring in as they lacked resources. This led to the backlogs!!!
In order to tackle these backlogs, they reduced ITA's and cut-off back to back draws. Probably, why we had a 4 week gap between draws earlier this year.
CPC-Ottawa and CIO-Sydney are the two primary visa offices which process nearly 70% of PR applications. Recently, IRCC has recruited new case officers and also an interesting information I received was that IRCC has recruited plenty of students on a rolling basis as Program Assistants or Case Processing Agents to help case officers with their workload. This is one of many reasons why lot of proof of funds and work experience documents are marked as Review Required because unlike case officers, most of these students are not highly trained enough to understand such complex documents. Hence, they mark it as RR and leave it to the review of the case officer. Therefore, RR should not always be considered as a bad thing
Processing times will definitely improve in future once these backlogs are cleared. Surely, IRCC must have learned from their mistakes and taken all necessary steps to prevent such a thing from repeating again.
Of course, not everything is 100% accurate. I have tried my best to analyze information gained through different means and provide insights. I hope this information is found useful
