Got this from another forum.
Background:
Figures:--
• Number of files in 2008 (backlogs) – 640000.
• Number of files in November 2012 (backlogs) – 100000.
• Number of visas issued in FSW till December 2012 – 55000-57000*
• Number of visas issued in FSW till June 2012 – 43653*
• Number of visa to be issued in 2013 – 53500-55300*
• Till June, 2012, 17068 applications in MI-2 have been processed and total of 25189* visas issued
• Till June, 2012, 6663 applications in MI-3 have been processed and total of 4378* visas issued
* - Including Primary Applicant + Spouse + Dependent
Facts:--
• CIC expects to clear all files received till November 2012 (100000 applications) by end of 2014
• To clear backlogs from 2008, i.e. 640000 files, MI-1 was started on 28th February, 2008 – introduction of a occupation in demand list
• To clear backlogs in 2010, MI-2 was started in June, 2010. – introduction of CAP of 1000
• To clear backlogs in 2011, MI-3 was started in June, 2011. – reduction of CAP to 500
• To clear backlogs in 2012, Pre-February 27th, 2008 files were returned and a temporary pause was initiated to stop taking new applications..
Assumption:
• None of the MI-1 applicants have received visa in 2013, nor their e-cas updated to medical received/decision made from June, 2012.
• MI-2 and MI-3 on a constant basis have been given visa and e-cas updated every now and then.
• Total of 2932 and 3337 applications are pending for MI-2 and MI-3 respectively which still have a decision pending.
• If we assume that all the pending MI-2 and MI-3 application will be granted visas, then a total of approximately 18800 visas will be issued.
• Therefore 55300-18800= 36500 visas will be remaining for MI-1, i.e. around 12100 applications.
Conclusion:
Looking at the trend, first, they will process all the MI-2 and MI-3 applications. Then they will start with MI-1, that too who have already done their medicals and submitted passport. May be in the interim, simultaneously or after issuing visa to these MI-1 applicants, further medical requirements will be issued to other MI-1 applicants.
Purely based on the assumptions and facts, I guess that people who received their medicals in 2012 for MI-1 will eventually get their visas this year (not sure when exactly). People who further receive medical requirement till mid of this year will also have a bright chance to get visa this year. If medicals are not received till June/July 2013, then expect that visas will not be issued in 2013 and it will go to 2014 quota.
I am sorry for being the bearer of this not so pleasant news. But I know how everyone in this forum and otherwise feeling. One thing is for sure, they will process all these pending applications by 2014. So just be more patient and pray to god that he helps us see this through. I wish everyone a speedy process for their applications, may there be heavy downpour of visas and medical requirements for MI-1.
References:
http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/department/media/releases/2012/2012-11-02.asp
http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/resources/statistics/facts2010/permanent/02.asp
http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/resources/publications/annual-report-2011/txt.asp
http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/department/media/releases/2012/2012-09-17.asp
http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/department/mi/index.asp
