may 2015 applicants for citizenship
- Thread starter jassi_cool1980
- Start date
The numbers are logic. Given the assumption that one out of ten applicants are on the "May tracker file".TomTony said:
I don't know why, but I have this feeling that sometime in mid-August CIC will publish on their website that all applicants under the old rules should have received an AOR and if not they should then call CIC.
The good thing about having an old/new process is that I think they already have a timeline and structure in place with predetermined dates to clear the backlog and start fresh. It just makes too much sense.
The good thing about having an old/new process is that I think they already have a timeline and structure in place with predetermined dates to clear the backlog and start fresh. It just makes too much sense.
ari5323 said:
sjakub said:
You don't have to assume any percentage at all -- only that the processing of applications (i.e. the ratio of applicants who have received AOR to those who have not received AOR) is the same for the people on the forum as it is in real life. I think that is a defensible assumption to make -- why would people on this forum be any different?
How many people are in the database here?
on-hold said:
I am not making any assumptions, ari5323 is.
And that was in response to someone saying there have been "thousands of applications relieved" - whatever that means.
I do agree, however, that the progress of all applications should be similar to the progress we see in those trackers,
which would suggest that most of he applications from the first half of May have already been acknowledged.
ari5323 said:This week 15 more green.
Go green go
I have a question for Mr. ari5323
I hope to get it before the date on which you wrote in your signature
Where or how I expected that you get Canadian citizenship in 17-05-2016
I hope to get it before the date on which you wrote in your signature
Where or how I expected that you get Canadian citizenship in 17-05-2016
Citizenship applied: with 1139 physical days
May-28-2015
Delivered June 1 2015 (signed by D. Stapleton)
AOR : 17- 07-2015
In Process : 17-09-2015
TX'd Local Office: 17-11-2015
Test Date : 13-02-2016
Oath Date : 17-05-2016
sjakub said:
No, I know. I couldn't figure out what was going on either -- what I assumed was that ari5323 was arguing (maybe implicitly) that because there weren't too many people left in our database to get AOR, there shouldn't be too many in the real world either. Then someone else mentioned 'thousands and thousands', which could mean anything at all. I just said that -- if my assumptions about the meaning of the argument is correct -- that there is no reason to think that the real world proportion is different from our database proportion.
You're totally correct to point out that it would be absurd to guess what REAL percentage of the real world our database is. I don't know exactly why I quoted you, maybe because everything else was a little vague.
If anybody else in interested in some more statistics,
I added a second sheet (a "tab") in the May time sheet.
It contains the number of applications delivered each day,
from the beginning of 2015 till June 10th - based on our and other time sheets.
It also contains graphs that show the average number of applications
delivered to CIC each day during specific months and weeks.
I don't claim those statistics represent in any way the actual trends,
but they do show that he number of applications delivered (that are
in those timesheets) went up towards the end of May and in June.
Which is most likely what happened to the overall numbers.
The optimistic part? Those differences are not that big.
There could be 1.5x or 2x or even 3x more applications
every day in late May and in June (compared to earlier months),
but probably not 10x or 100x more.
Unless our samples are completely not representative
for some reason and all of this doesn't mean anything
I added a second sheet (a "tab") in the May time sheet.
It contains the number of applications delivered each day,
from the beginning of 2015 till June 10th - based on our and other time sheets.
It also contains graphs that show the average number of applications
delivered to CIC each day during specific months and weeks.
I don't claim those statistics represent in any way the actual trends,
but they do show that he number of applications delivered (that are
in those timesheets) went up towards the end of May and in June.
Which is most likely what happened to the overall numbers.
The optimistic part? Those differences are not that big.
There could be 1.5x or 2x or even 3x more applications
every day in late May and in June (compared to earlier months),
but probably not 10x or 100x more.
Unless our samples are completely not representative
for some reason and all of this doesn't mean anything
oren said:
Has there been any correlation derived so far to know if AOR to IN PROCESS (or for that matter IN PROCESS to LOT as well) a push from Sydney to local office or a pull from the local office?
This could define when each should expect in-process status?
