Low(er) Scores? Why You'll Still Get ITA under EE

[tenkrun10]

I have been reading people lamenting on not getting ITA. First, I sympathize with you. Beyond simply offering sympathy, I also argue that lower scores will eventually get ITA. The only thing sure now is you did not get ITA in the first ever draw. There are many more draws to come.

What we can learn from Australia’s EOI:
In July 2012, Australia launched Expression of Interest (EOI) to build in efficiency into its immigration processing. In fact, Canada’s 2015 EE was designed and launched on the back of Asutralia’s EOI success. Canada pretty much copied Australia’s successful EOI.

Australia had its first invitation round on August 1st, 2012 (Approximately 30 days after the gates opened to lodge interest)..see some similarities ?. For perspective, here were the first round results for round 1 http://www.migrationexpert.com/australia/visa/australian_immigration_news/2012/Aug/1/658/DIAC_Announces_SkillSelect_Invitation_Round_1_August_Results

ONLY 200 invitations, all very high scores. At the time, immigration expert (as you can glean from the article) opined that 1) The number of ITAs in the first round was significantly lower than what people should expect at subsequent rounds, 2) the scores selected will also drop drastically.

Migration expert article was spot on. By the 4th month, ITAs for each round had increased 10 fold!. 2000 – 2500 ITAs, scores had dropped. One more thing…more invitation rounds per month were launched as opposed to once a month.
Here’s the data number of invitations issued from 2013 – 2014 http://www.immi.gov.au/Work/Pages/SkillSelect/results/12-may-2014.aspx

In other words, relax!. Seen this before.

http://www.immi.gov.au/Work/Pages/SkillSelect/results/2-September-2013.aspx

 

[EEKnowledge]

Except Canada attracts more lucrative talent than Australia. Canada has a lop-sided amount of points for LMIA and PNP; candidate pool available to Canada is more vast. Yes, there will be fluctuation; but the cutoff score is not going to magically halve itself and become 440 unless CIC is desperate. The model will behave similarly; but won't be that drastic of a change as we expect.

Moreover, look at the cut-off score for Australia. It is virtually unchanged for different streams. Ranking metrics for both systems is different though; so lets see how inelastic Canada's system is.

 

[tenkrun10]

Except Canada attracts more lucrative talent than Australia. Canada has a lop-sided amount of points for LMIA and PNP; candidate pool available to Canada is more vast. Yes, there will be fluctuation; but the cutoff score is not going to magically halve itself and become 440 unless CIC is desperate.

Two things will happen

1) The cut off point will drop. there are rounds that people with 400 + points will be picked depending NOC Code, etc.

2) Overtime, provinces will nominate soley via scanning candidate pools. This is a points bump so people with points even below 400 will be bumped up when the provinces get fully onboard. Today, the Aussie EOI...allows provinces to determine the skills they want, scan the profiles and then select from the pool.

 

[desertfox]

Great Post!

+1 for you (But you deserved more!)

 

[EEKnowledge]

Two things will happen

1) The cut off point will drop. there are rounds that people with 400 + points will be picked depending NOC Code, etc.

2) Overtime, provinces will nominate soley via scanning candidate pools. This is a points bump so people with points even below 400 will be bumped up when the provinces get fully onboard. Today, the Aussie EOI...allows provinces to determine the skills they want, scan the profiles and then select from the pool.

I do not think the drop will be that drastic. We are asking for a drop of 400 points from today's draw. Not happening. Look at Australia; at launch the cut-off score was 75 and latest draw's score was 65. Not much variation to be frank. The have nicely settle into 60-75 band; as CIC told too.

New system is not NOC based; CIC clarified that in the presentation too. They will prioritize between FSWP and CEC; that is different streams.

Alberta has 0 nominations for EE; Sask has 600 and so on. Not nearly enough even for provinces.

 

[sush80]

Except Canada attracts more lucrative talent than Australia. Canada has a lop-sided amount of points for LMIA and PNP; candidate pool available to Canada is more vast. Yes, there will be fluctuation; but the cutoff score is not going to magically halve itself and become 440 unless CIC is desperate. The model will behave similarly; but won't be that drastic of a change as we expect.

Moreover, look at the cut-off score for Australia. It is virtually unchanged for different streams. Ranking metrics for both systems is different though; so lets see how inelastic Canada's system is.

Well said. Agree

 

[Marooned]

Interesting analysis , +1 @ tenkrun10

 

[tenkrun10]

Well said. Agree

Canada attracts more talent and also has about 10 times the number of immigrants in targets to bring in. So there is an equalization factor.

 

[fl_pie]

the cutoff score is not going to magically halve itself and become 440 unless CIC is desperate.

How can the score keep itself up? Where will those 50k applicants with job offers come from? Also, keep in mind that there's a large gap between the lowest 600+ scores and the highest "regular" scores.

 

[EEKnowledge]

Canada attracts more talent and also has about 10 times the number of immigrants in targets to bring in. So there is an equalization factor.

Can you please quote specific numbers instead. The skill-sets Australia is asking are similar; and number of candidates they are bringing in are similar too. Australia has 190,000 seats for 2014-2015. Canada has 250K-280K. How is that equal to a factor of 10?

I know we all want to be hopeful; but let's not delude ourselves.

 

[fl_pie]

I have been reading people lamenting on not getting ITA. First, I sympathize with you. Beyond simply offering sympathy, I also argue that lower scores will eventually get ITA. The only thing sure now is you did not get ITA in the first ever draw. There are many more draws to come.

What we can learn from Australia's EOI:
In July 2012, Australia launched Expression of Interest (EOI) to build in efficiency into its immigration processing. In fact, Canada's 2015 EE was designed and launched on the back of Asutralia's EOI success. Canada pretty much copied Australia's successful EOI.

Australia had its first invitation round on August 1st, 2012 (Approximately 30 days after the gates opened to lodge interest)..see some similarities ?. For perspective, here were the first round results for round 1 http://www.migrationexpert.com/australia/visa/australian_immigration_news/2012/Aug/1/658/DIAC_Announces_SkillSelect_Invitation_Round_1_August_Results

ONLY 200 invitations, all very high scores. At the time, immigration expert (as you can glean from the article) opined that 1) The number of ITAs in the first round was significantly lower than what people should expect at subsequent rounds, 2) the scores selected will also drop drastically.

Migration expert article was spot on. By the 4th month, ITAs for each round had increased 10 fold!. 2000 – 2500 ITAs, scores had dropped. One more thing...more invitation rounds per month were launched as opposed to once a month.
Here's the data number of invitations issued from 2013 – 2014 http://www.immi.gov.au/Work/Pages/SkillSelect/results/12-may-2014.aspx

In other words, relax!. Seen this before.

http://www.immi.gov.au/Work/Pages/SkillSelect/results/2-September-2013.aspx

Thanks for the perspective. I didn't know about Australian first draw; statistics on their site begin in the middle of 2013. Let's hope the next draw will be soon, a lot more ITAs are issued and the passmark goes way down.

 

[EEKnowledge]

How can the score keep itself up? Where will those 50k applicants with job offers come from?

Let's find out. All I know is there are lots of people who have missed this round by 3, 11,120, etc. points. I think LMIA supply is there. PNP will contribute some too. They will separate out CEC and FSWP stream scores. But I do not think the score will dip to the level of 400s. But then this new system effectively shuts down people not in Canada; so how exactly is Canada benefiting from this system? I hope score comes down to the level of 410's and all. But I am not hopeful.

 

[fl_pie]

Can you please quote specific numbers instead. The skill-sets Australia is asking are similar; and number of candidates they are bringing in are similar too. Australia has 190,000 seats for 2014-2015. Canada has 250K-280K. How is that equal to a factor of 10?

I know we all want to be hopeful; but let's not delude ourselves.

Speaking about numbers, do you have any figures to compare the number of applicants between Australia and Canada?

 

[fl_pie]

Let's find out. All I know is there are lots of people who have missed this round by 3, 11,120, etc. points. I think LMIA supply is there. PNP will contribute some too. They will separate out CEC and FSWP stream scores. But I do not think the score will dip to the level of 400s. But then this new system effectively shuts down people not in Canada; so how exactly is Canada benefiting from this system? I hope score comes down to the level of 410's and all. But I am not hopeful.

I'd rather not find this out. I think that most LMIA holders were invited on this draw, and the rest will be drawn during the next round (which will also likely have a lot more ITAs issued), Of course, there will be some new LMIA-holding applicants every month, but not so many as to block the "regular" candidates altogether.

 

[EEKnowledge]

Speaking about numbers, do you have any figures to compare the number of applicants between Australia and Canada?

Australia does not release number of candidates in the pool. But they consistently issue 1800-2000 visas per draw. Cut-off hovers on 60-65. Cut-off for first draw was 65. Cut-off for latest draw was 60. Cut-off also varies for different NOCs. Like for a Chemical engineer it is 65; but for an electrical engineer it is 70. So their system is a bit granular.

Total immigration for Australia is set at 190K for current year; while Canada will take in 250K candidates. They issue around 25K visa for skilled categories; and Canada says they will issue around 40K for FSWP and 5K for CEC. So overall not a very big variation between numbers.