Low(er) Scores? Why You'll Still Get ITA under EE

[namaste]

Let's find out. All I know is there are lots of people who have missed this round by 3, 11,120, etc. points. I think LMIA supply is there. PNP will contribute some too. They will separate out CEC and FSWP stream scores.[size=10pt] But I do not think the score will dip to the level of 400s.[/size] But then this new system effectively shuts down people not in Canada; so how exactly is Canada benefiting from this system? I hope score comes down to the level of 410's and all. But I am not hopeful.

I am not an expert on anything immigration but simple maths and logic tells us that the score will MOST CERTAINLY drop to 400s at some point. Canada is benefiting by choosing only the highest qualified person in each draw, but the definition of the "highest qualified" is bound to change with each subsequent draw. There just aren't enough applicants with LMIA job offers or PNP to sustain Canada's immigration if they want a steady stream of immigrants and if they want to reach the annual skilled immigrant quota they have set out.

And this is quite similar to Australia as others have pointed out. During the first draws, only ones with 70/75 and up are invited while subsequently when they run out of such high scoring applicants, those with 65 and lower are invited.

So just because one didn't get invited in the VERY FIRST draw is not a reason to panic. There will be many many many more draws to come.

 

[tenkrun10]

I am not an expert on anything immigration but simple maths and logic tells us that the score will MOST CERTAINLY drop to 400s at some point. Canada is benefiting by choosing only the highest qualified person in each draw, but the definition of the "highest qualified" is bound to change with each subsequent draw. There just aren't enough applicants with LMIA job offers or PNP to sustain Canada's immigration if they want a steady stream of immigrants and if they want to reach the annual skilled immigrant quota they have set out.

And this is quite similar to Australia as others have pointed out. During the first draws, only ones with 70/75 and up are invited while subsequently when they run out of such high scoring applicants, those with 65 and lower are invited.

So just because one didn't get invited in the VERY FIRST draw is not a reason to panic. There will be many many many more draws to come.

And to add to your point on the Aussie points drop, A Pareto of points scored by ITAs after about 5 rounds show that 60 -70% of those invited scored the minimum to qualify. Like I said there are two things that will work together (more frequent draws, dearth of LMIA applicants, and increased participation in EE by PNP that will bump some low scores up as the provinces become more engaged and dependent on scanning the pool and picking from the EE pool. The extra points will be added at the point you're picked by the province)

One last thing...the Aussie scores did not drop in half. More like from 85 at the first ITA to 60, 55 (the minimum required). It couldn't drop in half for many reasons most importantly - the points required to qualify was 60 (sometimes it get tweaked +/- 5 points). The more important factor is the points structure. The points structure of the Canadian system makes me expect at least a 50% drop in points to be invited when things stabilize

 

[EEKnowledge]

And this is quite similar to Australia as others have pointed out. During the first draws, only ones with 70/75 and up are invited while subsequently when they run out of such high scoring applicants, those with 65 and lower are invited.

Australia's very first draw's cut-off was 65.
Draw cut-off on 19 Jan =60.

A dip of ~10%. And you expect Canada's cut-off to dip by 50%?

I know you are bending the facts to favor your narrative, but hoping the scores will overall dip by half is being naive and absolutely ludicrous. The whole assumption is based on that Canada has to fill its immigration quotas. There is no need for them too. This new system favors LMIAs; and because temporary worker program was shelved this is the backdoor entry for those guys. Alberta has already very very much relaxed rules for food, beverage and hotel lodging industries; because it is feeling the heat with temporary workers ban. Last year's LMIA's were 1200; but before that LMO ran into 6000. There will be enough supply to sustain the EE program. Besides not everyone with LMIA applied for EE at this stage; because they wanted to know the outcome of first draw. There will be more applications and pool will grow bigger subsequently. And PNPs haven't even begun.

 

[namaste]

Australia's very first draw's cut-off was 65.
Draw cut-off on 19 Jan =60.

A dip of ~10%. And you expect Canada's cut-off to dip by 50%?

[size=10pt]I know you are bending the facts to favor your narrative, but hoping the scores will overall dip by half is being naive and absolutely ludicrous. [/size]The whole assumption is based on that Canada has to fill its immigration quotas. There is no need for them too. This new system favors LMIAs; and because temporary worker program was shelved this is the backdoor entry for those guys. Alberta has already very very much relaxed rules for food, beverage and hotel lodging industries; because it is feeling the heat with temporary workers ban. Last year's LMIA's were 1200; but before that LMO ran into 6000. There will be enough supply to sustain the EE program. Besides not everyone with LMIA applied for EE at this stage; because they wanted to know the outcome of first draw. There will be more applications and pool will grow bigger subsequently. And PNPs haven't even begun.

You are comparing apples to oranges when you compare the points. The point structure of Canada and Australia is COMPLETELY DIFFERENT. Australia has a continuous scale where having a job offer suddenly does not make you exceptional. It only gives you a marginal advantage. For Canada, having a job offer/PNP gives you HALF of the total points. So either you have an offer and score over 800, or you don't have a job offer/PNP and score around 400. There is no scoring in the middle 500-800 ish. A 10% drop in Australia's point system is equivalent to a 50% drop in Canada's point system. At least get the facts straight.

For everything else who said, just look at historical data. I have no personal interest in the express entry system to favor any narrative. Just stating my opinion on the program based on available facts. Of course, neither you nor I know what the future holds.

 

[tenkrun10]

Australia's very first draw's cut-off was 65.
Draw cut-off on 19 Jan =60.

A dip of ~10%. And you expect Canada's cut-off to dip by 50%?

I know you are bending the facts to favor your narrative, but hoping the scores will overall dip by half is being naive and absolutely ludicrous. The whole assumption is based on that Canada has to fill its immigration quotas. There is no need for them too. This new system favors LMIAs; and because temporary worker program was shelved this is the backdoor entry for those guys. Alberta has already very very much relaxed rules for food, beverage and hotel lodging industries; because it is feeling the heat with temporary workers ban. Last year's LMIA's were 1200; but before that LMO ran into 6000. There will be enough supply to sustain the EE program. Besides not everyone with LMIA applied for EE at this stage; because they wanted to know the outcome of first draw. There will be more applications and pool will grow bigger subsequently. And PNPs haven't even begun.

EEnowledge. While i respect your opinion, I don't share your view. I will let you guys in on something later. First read my last post on the topic (prior to this one). Where I explained why Australia could not drop invitation to 50% of points. Australia had a floor of 60 - 65 , high end scores were in the 80 - 90 range. So we have a 60 - 65 point floor that effectively limits the drop in the Aussie system. There;s also the PNP (people seem to be stuck on LMIA). Quebec mostly and then other provinces have very deep interests in immigration. There's going to be a time, very soon where provinces will be picking from the pool. This will bump some peeps with lets say 370 points up to 970 at the point of nomination. See my last post per my reasoning. Before we make the leap to the "naive" verdict....I'll be cautious and see what draw number 5, 6, 7 looks like. I am not assuming all allocations will be filled by the way. Good alternate view point though

 

[EEKnowledge]

EEnowledge. While i respect your opinion, I don't share your view. I will let you guys in on something later. First read my last post on the topic (prior to this one). Where I explained why Australia could not drop invitation to 50% of points. Australia had a floor of 60 - 65 , high end scores were in the 80 - 90 range. So we have a 60 - 65 point floor that effectively limits the drop in the Aussie system. There;s also the PNP (people seem to be stuck on LMIA). Quebec mostly and then other provinces have very deep interests in immigration. There's going to be a time, very soon where provinces will be picking from the pool. This will bump some peeps with lets say 370 points up to 970 at the point of nomination. See my last post per my reasoning. Before we make the leap to the "naive" verdict....I'll be cautious and see what draw number 5, 6, 7 looks like. I am not assuming all allocations will be filled by the way. Good alternate view point though

The stat model will behave similarly. The band of cut-off will become clear as more draws are undertaken.; their model will improve with more data points. Agreed. But, just giving a cursory look at Australia's draws; the bell curve is very very apparent and they cut it off at ~35% from the tail end; and shows that their first draw's cut-off was very point on indeed. first draw cut-off was 65; and it has hovered around that band. So first draw was dead-on with whatever assumptions they used. I think CIC's statistician's are working on the same assumption and similar models. But remember there is a reason they initially chose to seed their model with such a high cut-off of 886 points. Yes, the ranges will become clear because Canada's model will have high variation simply due to lopsided points given to two metrics. So Canada will behave differently. It is hard to digest these kind of outcomes; but I am not looking at a 50% drop any time soon. They will prioritize CEC; and CIC has said so too; but for other streams it is not looking good.

Not all provinces have been allotted quota into EE pool yet. Alberta for example has 0 nominations for 2015. But LMO/LMIA pockets are very deep.

I just saw the stats for 2013; and there are 146,870 workers with LMOs in Canada. Let's assume 30% of them are working in NOC 0,A and B....that leaves ~45K people eligible for EE. And imagine 50% of them want to live in Canada and apply for EE and are eligible:- ~25K people with LMOs. So you are looking at substantial number of LMO/LMIA in itself.

So once PNP get going; competition is going to see an increase and not a decrease. But this means that tail-end will have high number of candidates. What will be interesting to see is how the average score behaves. True, more draws will make the picture clearer but the first stroke of brush has already painted a foundation.

 

[wolfey]

dont let the high looking score fool you. ya 800s look high, but if you take lmias out of picture the people with points from 500 to 800 would be quite low, in fact i dont thing points between 600 and 700 are possible bare the odd rare case and 700 to 800 would be quite small too.
500 to 600 is going be another small number too. so really the real battle for ita will be in the 350 to 500 bracket as highest number people would be under this. anything 500 up id would presume will get called.
Numbers would depend on how many lmia and pnp are issued in each given month too , but with waiting times getting longer for these that sould not effect next few draws only people who have already aquired them.
if less then 800 people picked can knock max points from 1200 down to 868 or what ever it shows there is not a large number of these .
Once highest ranking falls below 800 in a given draw it will quickly fall onto the 500s and less rankings.

 

[doubleym]

dont let the high looking score fool you. ya 800s look high, but if you take lmias out of picture the people with points from 500 to 800 would be quite low, in fact i dont thing points between 600 and 700 are possible bare the odd rare case and 700 to 800 would be quite small too.
500 to 600 is going be another small number too. so really the real battle for ita will be in the 350 to 500 bracket as highest number people would be under this. anything 500 up id would presume will get called.
Numbers would depend on how many lmia and pnp are issued in each given month too , but with waiting times getting longer for these that sould not effect next few draws only people who have already aquired them.
if less then 800 people picked can knock max points from 1200 down to 868 or what ever it shows there is not a large number of these .
Once highest ranking falls below 800 in a given draw it will quickly fall onto the 500s and less rankings.

Agreed, it'd be a very small number of people with points between 600 - 850, would be very rare cases where someone with a base score of ~200 would be skilled enough for an LMIA to boost them up.

I'd expect the next draw to give a very good example, since they'll have cleared out all the current profiles with LMIAs.

 

[fl_pie]

Australia's very first draw's cut-off was 65.
Draw cut-off on 19 Jan =60.

A dip of ~10%. And you expect Canada's cut-off to dip by 50%?

I know you are bending the facts to favor your narrative, but hoping the scores will overall dip by half is being naive and absolutely ludicrous. The whole assumption is based on that Canada has to fill its immigration quotas. There is no need for them too. This new system favors LMIAs; and because temporary worker program was shelved this is the backdoor entry for those guys. Alberta has already very very much relaxed rules for food, beverage and hotel lodging industries; because it is feeling the heat with temporary workers ban. Last year's LMIA's were 1200; but before that LMO ran into 6000. There will be enough supply to sustain the EE program. Besides not everyone with LMIA applied for EE at this stage; because they wanted to know the outcome of first draw. There will be more applications and pool will grow bigger subsequently. And PNPs haven't even begun.

First of all, like other people said, Australia has a very different scoring system where no factor gives as much as 50% of the max score. Canadian point system is, in my opinion, needlessly inflated. Also, according to the OP, the first cutoff score was 75, not 65. Canada definitely has to fill the quotas; why do you think they even set them in the first place? 2013 LMO number was about 1200, too. Also, why would people NOT apply to EE and wait instead - what would they be waiting for? There's no harm in registering early; I'm sure everyone who could register did so already. Also, keep in mind FSWP statistics: by far the biggest amount of applications was always in May and was steadily dropping in subsequent months.

 

[fl_pie]

The stat model will behave similarly. The band of cut-off will become clear as more draws are undertaken.; their model will improve with more data points. Agreed. But, just giving a cursory look at Australia's draws; the bell curve is very very apparent and they cut it off at ~35% from the tail end; and shows that their first draw's cut-off was very point on indeed. first draw cut-off was 65; and it has hovered around that band. So first draw was dead-on with whatever assumptions they used. I think CIC's statistician's are working on the same assumption and similar models. But remember there is a reason they initially chose to seed their model with such a high cut-off of 886 points. Yes, the ranges will become clear because Canada's model will have high variation simply due to lopsided points given to two metrics. So Canada will behave differently. It is hard to digest these kind of outcomes; but I am not looking at a 50% drop any time soon. They will prioritize CEC; and CIC has said so too; but for other streams it is not looking good.

Not all provinces have been allotted quota into EE pool yet. Alberta for example has 0 nominations for 2015. But LMO/LMIA pockets are very deep.

I just saw the stats for 2013; and there are 146,870 workers with LMOs in Canada. Let's assume 30% of them are working in NOC 0,A and B....that leaves ~45K people eligible for EE. And imagine 50% of them want to live in Canada and apply for EE and are eligible:- ~25K people with LMOs. So you are looking at substantial number of LMO/LMIA in itself.

So once PNP get going; competition is going to see an increase and not a decrease. But this means that tail-end will have high number of candidates. What will be interesting to see is how the average score behaves. True, more draws will make the picture clearer but the first stroke of brush has already painted a foundation.

Does this number (146k) include LMO-exempt workers or not?

 

[EEKnowledge]

Does this number (146k) include LMO-exempt workers or not?

146K are the total number of workers having LMOs in Canada.

 

[MedZed]

Agreed, it'd be a very small number of people with points between 600 - 850, would be very rare cases where someone with a base score of ~200 would be skilled enough for an LMIA to boost them up.

I'd expect the next draw to give a very good example, since they'll have cleared out all the current profiles with LMIAs.

I think so,there is a big gap between 550 to 800 scores.

 

[canfsw]

I do not think the drop will be that drastic. We are asking for a drop of 400 points from today's draw. Not happening. Look at Australia; at launch the cut-off score was 75 and latest draw's score was 65. Not much variation to be frank. The have nicely settle into 60-75 band; as CIC told too.

New system is not NOC based; CIC clarified that in the presentation too. They will prioritize between FSWP and CEC; that is different streams.

Alberta has 0 nominations for EE; Sask has 600 and so on. Not nearly enough even for provinces.

where is this data "Alberta has 0 nominations for EE; Sask has 600 and so on. Not nearly enough even for provinces" available

please share the link

 

[SergiiK]

IMHO: government will be making a lot of unannounced/announced adjustments to the program according to their needs/economical/political situation in the country.
For example they can stop issuing ITA for those who have less than 900 and start giving ITA to those 400+.
I will explain. Let's take this scenario:
45 years cook (Noc B) without education, low ielts, etc. but with lmia has 890 points - gets ITA - brings his wife and two kids and immediately starts getting benefits (health card, kids' financial support, etc) for the whole family. Does it help to boost economy? You don't have to be financial guru to answer: no way, he will be milking the economy. So looking ahead and taking into consideration that the main point of the program is to bring skilled, educated, qualified people to the country will make them to reconsider the real value of points.

 

[doubleym]

I think so,there is a big gap between 550 to 800 scores.

Yea, I'd expect the next draw to clear up fewer ~800+ candidates and start dipping into the 500s, fingers crossed since I'm sitting at 510 points.