Anectodally there have been more and more people planning on this forum to obtain PR but not to settle in Canada only to secure domestic tuition for their children. The origin purpose of the loophole was to welcome back PR children who had spent part of the childhood and schooling in Canada but had to move for parents job or other reasons. What we were and continue to see is children who may have spent a week in Canada 10 years ago or even a few days as an infant counting on the fact that they will be given access to domestic tuition rates. It is a huge cost savings to these families. There are examples on this forum of families applying for PR for their family with no intention to relocate to Canada their only intention is to secure domestic tuition. The aim of the PR program is to invite skilled workers and their family to move to Canada and participate in the Canadian economy and in exchange your family gets to benefit for the Canadian programs and services like Canadian citizens. Granting a family PR is not a way to allow people to avoid paying domestic fees when they have never settled in Canada like other international students. This year we did see a shift. Where as young adults from 18-22 were getting approved regularly many started being refused. Especially the older ones.
I grasp the analysis, the rationale. And it makes sense. So it is not as if I am challenging it.
And in just this forum alone there is clearly a recent escalation in the number of reports indicating
removed-minors having PR TD applications denied/refused.
In particular, I agree with posts cautioning young PRs that their chances to keep PR status may be very limited if they spent rather little time in Canada and never were much established in Canada.
But the outcome of these cases could be consistent with IRCC Visa Offices giving the lack of establishment factor weight that offsets the lack-of-personal-choice (removed as a minor) factor, and not necessarily a significant policy or practice change, given the particular facts in these cases (the main fact being very little time in Canada). Especially if it is true, as you describe, there has been this trend by some Foreign Nationals to actually pursue the PR process to facilitate later educational opportunities for their children, and the recent reports of TD refusals is specifically in response to those cases in particular.
More importantly, it does not illuminate much about how other factors might influence the outcome, or for that matter much about what degree of establishment or presence might make the difference, let alone the very important question about whether or not, and if so what additional information the young PR might include in making a stronger H&C case.
Even a newspaper report describing what government officials have said about this could be informative and helpful. For sure, any formal decision articulating the reasons for not allowing the PR to retain PR status would be especially useful.
SO, TO BE CLEAR: REFERENCE TO ANY SOURCE OF INFORMATION ADDRESSING THIS ISSUE WOULD BE APPRECIATED.
Obvious cases tend to be easy cases. Not my bailiwick. To my view it is important, helpful to some, to identify what factors influence how these things go. Even if it is impossible to quantify the probabilities, if we can identify how certain factors will typically influence things, which direction they might push the needle, that should be useful for some.
Example: what would make a difference in terms of establishment? Two months rather than two weeks? Six months rather than two? A year? Two years?
My estimation is that there will NOT be any direct correlation between a specific amount of time and the outcome, that other factors will have some influence, and that otherwise there are also bound to simply be variable outcomes depending on the Visa Office. But if there are actual policies and practices in play, what those are and the manner in which they are applied can be valuable information for many young PRs abroad trying to decide if it is worth trying to come to Canada. And if so, whether the young PR could provide additional information in their PR TD application which might make his or her H&C case stronger.
It is also worth noting, remembering, that at least among the more sober voices here there was NO guarantee that a PR
removed-as-a-minor would be issued a PR TD on H&C grounds, and well before this recent trend of refusals more than a few here advised caution in applying for a new PR card for those who were able to come to Canada via the U.S. without getting reported, emphasizing that the safer approach was to stay the two years, thereby cure the breach of the RO, rather than relying on a positive H&C outcome. Personally I am not much surprised by the outcome in these recently reported cases, which it warrants emphasizing are largely about PRs with NO established life in Canada. If the child was not established in Canada, it is no stretch to distinguish that child's case from those given relief because they were "removed" from Canada.
A note about the apparent trend by some Foreign Nationals to actually pursue the PR process to facilitate later educational opportunities for their children, and the recent reports of TD refusals is specifically in response to those cases in particular:
While this may very well be where many of these recently refused cases, involving PRs who spent rather little time in Canada, are coming from, my sense is there are probably many cases also coming from situations in which the process of immigrating to Canada did not work out and then later, when the children approach university age, and they become familiar with reports that PRs
removed-as-a-minor are easily given a chance to keep PR status, that simply appears to be an opportunity worth pursuing and one that many will pursue . . . note, after all, a large number of new PRs simply fail to actually settle in Canada, and I would anticipate that those with young families, in particular, might find making the actual move a lot more difficult than it looked on paper. Which is NOT to say that should give the children an anchor-right to come to Canada later in life, particularly to take advantage of Canada's educational opportunities for residents if they never have been in fact a resident.
THE MAIN THING: is to identify what is known about actual policies and practices, about the criteria employed and how that is applied given typical variables. Does a year in grade school in Canada before being "removed" make the difference? We know that the nature and degree of establishment is a big factor. We know that the lack-of-personal-choice (in the reason for being abroad) is a big factor. We know a big factor is how soon after attaining majority or emancipation as an adult the young PR attempts to return to Canada.
And, I have a strong apprehension that making the PR TD application prior to actually reaching the age of majority might HURT the young PR's chances. If this is the case, that is important for young PRs to know.
FINALLY, and importantly, can we still say, EXCEPT for these cases of minimal-establishment, that young
PRs removed from Canada as a minor who seek to come to Canada soon after attaining the age of majority
have a very good chance of being issued a PR TD, which would allow them to come to Canada and once in Canada apply for and be issued a PR card? Do the reports of recent refusals signal a tougher approach generally?
My sense is that there are more than a few young PRs around the world with some significant hopes hanging in the balance.