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June 2021 - Citizenship Applicants

So only online single applications receive AOR so far ?? Wondering when will they send AOR for paper & family applications
 
Is it a pattern , first they were giving aors to paper applications and then now online… i hope paper are not neglected
 
from_india_to_canada said:
yes, they will get theirs by Oct.10th!!
Click to expand...
Oct 10th is an exaggeration. I am not sure what that is based on. But, a couple of early June paper applicants already got their AOR. Some June applicants might get their AOR in October but that doesn't mean that most paper June applicants will get theirs in October (especially early June paper applicants). Most May paper applicants already got their AORs. They are not going to put paper applications on hold for a month. Some people didn't have the option to apply online (family applications). I am glad that online applicants are getting their AORs. Even IRCC wouldn't be able to tell anyone when exactly they are gonna get their AOR. IRCC is not consistent with their timing.

Good luck everyone!
 
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applicant2021 said:
Oct 10th is an exaggeration. I am not sure what that is based on. But, a couple of early June paper applicants already got their AOR. Some June applicants might get their AOR in October but that doesn't mean that most paper June applicants will get theirs in October (especially early June paper applicants). Most May paper applicants already got their AORs. They are not going to put paper applications on hold for a month. Some people didn't have the option to apply online (family applications). I am glad that online applicants are getting their AORs. Even IRCC wouldn't be able to tell anyone when exactly they are gonna get their AOR. IRCC is not consistent with their timing.

Good luck everyone!
Click to expand...

It's based on a model I developed last month, which predicts the wait time for applicants:

Of course, it's a model, so it could very well be wrong.

The first number indicates the average wait time for AOR during the period.
The number left on the arrow refers to the wait time of the applicant on the first day of the period
The number right to the arrow refers to the wait time of the applicant on the last day of the period

For Jun.1-15th Applicants
Online: 90 days [105 -> 85]
Paper: 100 days [95 -> 105]

For Jun.16-30 Applicants
Online: 80 days [85 -> 75]
Paper: 105 days [100 -> 110]

Based on the model, all June Online Applicants will get AOR by the end of next week; Applicants before June.20 will get AOR by the end of month, and applicants between June.20~30 will get theirs early October!

So for paper. our conclusions are the same, I also think that most June Paper applicants (before Jun.20) will get their AOR this month, but not the ones after Jun.20!
 
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from_india_to_canada said:
It's based on a model. The model shows the wait time for applicants:

The first number indicates the average wait time for AOR during the period.
The number left on the arrow refers to the wait time of the applicant on the first day of the period
The number right to the arrow refers to the wait time of the applicant on the last day of the period

For Jun.1-15th Applicant
Online: 90 days [105 -> 85]
Paper: 100 days [95 -> 105]

For Jun.16-30 Applicant
Online: 78 days [85 -> 75]
Paper: 105 days [100 -> 110]
Click to expand...
What model are you talking about? How are you predicting that late June applicants are going to wait more on average compared to early June applicants while both didn't get their AORs? I think the wait time is around 100 days for paper applications as of now which is slightly above 3 months. That means that a late June applicant will probably get their AOR later this month or even early October but saying June paper applicants will get their AORs by October 10th isn't that accurate as some of them already got their AORs.
 
applicant2021 said:
What model are you talking about? How are you predicting that late June applicants are going to wait more on average compared to early June applicants while both didn't get their AORs? I think the wait time is around 100 days for paper applications as of now which is slightly above 3 months. That means that a late June applicant will probably get their AOR later this month or even early October but saying June paper applicants will get their AORs by October 10th isn't that accurate as some of them already got their AORs.
Click to expand...
See my updated post, I think all paper applicants before Jun.20 will get their AOR by the end of this month, but applicants between June.20-30 will get theirs early October!!
 
from_india_to_canada said:
See my updated post, I think all paper applicants before Jun.20 will get their AOR by the end of this month, but applicants between June.20-30 will get theirs early October!!
Click to expand...
I kind of agree because the wait time is now ~100 days for paper applications. However, I think your model is over optimistic regarding online applications (by the end of next week sounds like a stretch maybe within the next 15 days). I think that might be because we don't have a lot of data as of now regarding June applications. Also, a lot of people add themselves to the tracker and never update their information which is like noise.
 
applicant2021 said:
I kind of agree because the wait time is now ~100 days for paper applications. However, I think your model is over optimistic regarding online applications (by the end of next week sounds like a stretch maybe within the next 15 days). I think that might be because we don't have a lot of data as of now regarding June applications. Also, a lot of people add themselves to the tracker and never update their information which is like noise.
Click to expand...

Ya, it's just a model, we'll find out next week!! :)

Regarding being too optimistic for online applications, in my subjective opinion, I agree with you; but my model has a very high confidence score that a Jun.30 online applicant will get their AOR by the end of next week, so we will see.

Also, the training dataset only takes the earliest reported AOR into account, but the reality is a lot of people would report AOR a few days later. I removed noise from the dataset myself to the best of my ability, but I agree, the quality is not ideal.
 
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from_india_to_canada said:
Ya, it's just a model, we'll find out next week!! :)

Regarding being too optimistic for online applications, in my subjective opinion, I agree with you; but my model has a very high confidence score that a Jun.30 online applicant will get their AOR by the end of next week, so we will see.

Also, the training dataset only takes the earliest reported AOR into account, but the reality is a lot of people would report AOR a few days later. I removed noise from the dataset myself to the best of my ability, but I agree, the quality is not ideal.
Click to expand...
We will see I guess. Good luck!
 
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