June 2018 AOR - join here

[cadgijoe]

Yes everyone has to cause there is no channel to dispute that. But my experience as a finance professional is if someone gives me that data I can surely make the average processing time to 5 months if not 3.
However, i think your input are duely considered by forum members.

Btw, that number is average for last year (2017). This year (2018) has seen a record breaking ITAs which potentially stretched CIC's resource.

 

[richa1987]

Btw, that number is average for last year (2017). This year (2018) has seen a record breaking ITAs which potentially stretched CIC's resource.

Even CBSA has been screaming foul since last year.
https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2018/01/17/canada-border-services-agency-struggling-under-freedom-of-information-backlog.html
It is the most commonly used practise to keep passing on the ball to other basket if you have maintain the weight of one basket.

 

[navinball]

Your assumed numbers are a little out of perspective. During the first half of the ITA every month was more like 4000. Taking conversion of 80% based on your assumption, applications would be 3200. Immitracker has sample size of about 500 every month which is like 15-20% sample size and no sample is the world for any research has such a large sample size.
Now, there are many analytical dashboards on immitracker which will show you that even after 7-8 months conversion is standing between 65-80%. This demonstrates that processing time is slower by atleast 30%.

Is there a huge probability that of only bad profiles AS PER IRCC, landing on immitracker!!! Don't think so because its a random sample and IRCC doesn't have any interference in selecting this sample.

In fact if you pls reflect on your statements, 3 places you referred number were all assumptions.

Your numbers are off. During the first half the ita's were 2750 to 3200 biweekly. Which comes to 6000 to 7000 monthly as a month is a bit more than 4 weeks. So immitracker has only about 5 to 10% cases at best. That too highly inaccurate as most don't update the tracker. Using that data to get to any kind of conclusion is ridiculous and foolhardy at best.

 

[ts270890]

Yes everyone has to cause there is no channel to dispute that. But my experience as a finance professional is if someone gives me that data I can surely make the average processing time to 5 months if not 3.
However, i think your input are duely considered by forum members.

i am in machine learning and data science. in my opinion, the data in myimmitracker is pretty good. if in June CIC had 7000 applications then we need about 350 applicants data to estimate the data trends within 5% margin error and having 95% confidence.

in myimmitracker right now there are 410 active cases from june 2018. therefore although not accurate but it gives us a good indication if the processing is slow or not.

https://www.surveymonkey.com/mp/sample-size-calculator/

 

[ts270890]

Hi, 2 weeks ago I called CIC and the agent was extremely agitated, refusing to tell me anything. Until I literally begged him for only 1 question regarding my security check, he reluctantly said in progress. But I honestly didn't know if he was telling truth or just wanna get me off, so I asked him when it started and if it's security screening, he rejected me. Now I'm still confused.
My eligibility Met, criminality Passed. Can I trust/draw anything from his response? I'm just worry about security screening now. My family only stays and travels to safe countries though.

i had a similar experience. my eligibility is met and criminality passed. i made a call in the middle of december. the agent was seriously rude and i got similar replies. i think you should apply for gcms/atip and cbsa notes just to be totally sure.

 

[tanush14]

Hmmm...so the fact that I’m in my 7th month, with security not started as confirmed by an agent I spoke to on 26Dec18 - after completing 6 months - means I’m in SS? My latest GCMS notes issued on 27Nov18 also indicate that security hasn’t started. How would you explain cases such as these @navinball? And these are increasingly the norm for June, with many cases of security not started despite Eligibility met and Criminality passed...

If your GCMS notes say Security not started then you’re not in security screening for sure. Anyone in security screening has this section blank in GCMS notes with a mention of S15 (clause under which the information is protected)
Do a quick search on this forum about S15/S16 and you will get the correct picture.

 

[cadgijoe]

i had a similar experience. my eligibility is met and criminality passed. i made a call in the middle of december. the agent was seriously rude and i got similar replies. i think you should apply for gcms/atip and cbsa notes just to be totally sure.

Thanks for sharing. I think that's what I'm gonna do.

 

[cadgijoe]

Hi @tanush14 , just curious, when was the last time you know your security is still 'Not Started'? Thanks.

 

[richa1987]

Your numbers are off. During the first half the ita's were 2750 to 3200 biweekly. Which comes to 6000 to 7000 monthly as a month is a bit more than 4 weeks. So immitracker has only about 5 to 10% cases at best. That too highly inaccurate as most don't update the tracker. Using that data to get to any kind of conclusion is ridiculous and foolhardy at best.

Your data is right for ITAs in June onwards but pls consider that June ITAs don't get converted the same month. My calculation for 1st part of the year is as per AORs based on ITAs from prior month.
You are also right wet to people not updating but those are being discounted while calculating PPR conversion.

@ts270890 I find your observation also relevant.

@navinball you may be right but more people think the other way around. However, you basic point will get clarified in 30 days when people are in possession of their GCMS and CBSA notes.
Let's hold our horses till then. But I love the discussion on the forum. Many people are going to get hell lot of help from these.

 

[arun_kumar543]

Yippee...

Got my Passport Request Letter from NDVO just now...

Thank you all Guys for your support...

 

[richa1987]

Yippee...

Got my Passport Request Letter from NDVO just now...

Thank you all Guys for your support...

Congratulations! It will be great if you could share your detailed timeline with the group

 

[EE456]

Hmmm...so the fact that I’m in my 7th month, with security not started as confirmed by an agent I spoke to on 26Dec18 - after completing 6 months - means I’m in SS? My latest GCMS notes issued on 27Nov18 also indicate that security hasn’t started. How would you explain cases such as these @navinball? And these are increasingly the norm for June, with many cases of security not started despite Eligibility met and Criminality passed...

I think they're keeping you in Mauritius so you could be a witness at our wedding and then you can go to Canada.

 

[ishq74]

Yippee...

Got my Passport Request Letter from NDVO just now...

Thank you all Guys for your support...

Congratulations! I got the PPR email again today (1st one on 31st Dec). NDVO is very desperate to clear backlogs. lol

 

[ripudamansodhi]

Not so far - will raise a CSE again on January 5.

Did you receive PPR?

 

[ripudamansodhi]

Not so far - will raise a CSE again on January 5.

Did you get PPR?