I did a rough calculation earlier in this thread, with a lot of if's:
As of today (July 26, 2022) there are 11 draws remaining for 2022. Assuming the +250 trend stays until it hits 3000 and keeps at 3000, there are 2000+2250+2500+2750+3000*7=30500 waiting to be invited this year. Notice how this is only about 40% of 75000 (FHS quota for 2023), and this number includes PNP as well. But let's say IRCC will consistently invite 3000 ppl each draw in H1 2023, I believe 30500 for the rest of this year is fair.
Post the draw on July 20, there are roughly 8000 ppl within the range 501-600. Let's assume in between each 2 draws there are always 1200 new ppl entering the pool in the range 501-600, by the end of the year there will be 8000+11*1200=21200 ppl between 501 and 600, without any draws. If you add ~8000 PNP (~11*800), that's still a bit shy of 30500. That's why I think they will clear 500+ this year.