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July draw predictions

Ultraxion

Hero Member
May 10, 2022
258
190
That calculation looks right assuming the draw structures. Now just need to keep hoping that the economy does not nosedive and they pause immigration again (biggest worry at the moment - the recession). This is why it would be in the candidates favour now to get bigger draws.
Canada needs immigrants to boost her economy, so I don't think IRCC will kill immigration (or even lower the quota). But IRCC is notorious for its lack of transparency, so who knows? At the end of the day we can only hope for the best. For now I can only say there is still plenty of room to be optimistic, cuz my calculation is pretty conservative (like 3000/draw is less than pre-pandemic level, 1200/draw of 501-600 every single time is probably not gonna happen, etc). Another thing worth waiting for is gonna be the new level plan, which should be published in November.
 

raghavgrover

Star Member
Jul 26, 2019
186
57
For CEC applicants, can we get 50 points for a job offer if it is until Jan 2024? I think the rule about it being 1 year after receiving PR sounds so vague, how can we even know when will we get ITA and when will we even receive PR

Does anyone have any insight on this?
If it’s the job offer that was used to obtain the work permit, then it cant be used. You need to obtain a new job offer letter and it should be recent and not more than 1 year old when you submit the application and the letter should have that clause about one year post PR - otherwise they tend to reject the 50 points , though some lucky ones might still go through depending on the officer who’s looking at the file making a mistake
 
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raghavgrover

Star Member
Jul 26, 2019
186
57
I did a rough calculation earlier in this thread, with a lot of if's:

As of today (July 26, 2022) there are 11 draws remaining for 2022. Assuming the +250 trend stays until it hits 3000 and keeps at 3000, there are 2000+2250+2500+2750+3000*7=30500 waiting to be invited this year. Notice how this is only about 40% of 75000 (FHS quota for 2023), and this number includes PNP as well. But let's say IRCC will consistently invite 3000 ppl each draw in H1 2023, I believe 30500 for the rest of this year is fair.

Post the draw on July 20, there are roughly 8000 ppl within the range 501-600. Let's assume in between each 2 draws there are always 1200 new ppl entering the pool in the range 501-600, by the end of the year there will be 8000+11*1200=21200 ppl between 501 and 600, without any draws. If you add ~8000 PNP (~11*800), that's still a bit shy of 30500. That's why I think they will clear 500+ this year.
IRCC defies logic so it can all go to shit lol.
But anyways your calculations based on those assumptions sounds about right to me
 

lumberjack23

Full Member
Mar 17, 2015
49
13
Anyone else received an email from IRCC asking us to "Complete new questions about your Canadian education in Express Entry"? Of course the explanation link they included in the email is utterly useless/provides no explanation, not even sure how to find said new questions
 

tobyboy

Star Member
Sep 25, 2009
121
32
Anyone else received an email from IRCC asking us to "Complete new questions about your Canadian education in Express Entry"? Of course the explanation link they included in the email is utterly useless/provides no explanation, not even sure how to find said new questions
Yes! You have to go to Study and Languages, choose the entry with your Canadian Education and click Modify. Three questions are added at the bottom of the form.
 
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SatNight

Hero Member
Dec 2, 2017
797
387
Anyone else received an email from IRCC asking us to "Complete new questions about your Canadian education in Express Entry"? Of course the explanation link they included in the email is utterly useless/provides no explanation, not even sure how to find said new questions
Yes. Just updated. You have to go to your profile and edit it. The new questions will be in the "study and languages" section. Do you know how to get there?

The new questions are: did you attend more than 50% of your studies in person? Did you study full time for at least 8 months? Were you physically present in Canada for at least 8 months during your studies?
 

tobyboy

Star Member
Sep 25, 2009
121
32
Yes. Just updated. You have to go to your profile and edit it. The new questions will be in the "study and languages" section. Do you know how to get there?

The new questions are: did you attend more than 50% of your studies in person? Did you study full time for at least 8 months? Were you physically present in Canada for at least 8 months during your studies?
Hopefully there's a CEC only draw next week!
 
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Phan Do

Full Member
Dec 17, 2019
29
4
Yes. Just updated. You have to go to your profile and edit it. The new questions will be in the "study and languages" section. Do you know how to get there?

The new questions are: did you attend more than 50% of your studies in person? Did you study full time for at least 8 months? Were you physically present in Canada for at least 8 months during your studies?
If I stayed in Canada for the whole 2 years of education but only went to class for one semester (the rest is online due to Covid). Do I put No for the first question (50% of study in person)?
 

tomtom104

Star Member
Apr 24, 2022
92
35
If I stayed in Canada for the whole 2 years of education but only went to class for one semester (the rest is online due to Covid). Do I put No for the first question (50% of study in person)?
Just be honest in your answer. If you click to the question mark next to the question, you may find it wouldn't affect your profile that much.
 

aommnd

Star Member
Apr 6, 2022
117
25
Yes. Just updated. You have to go to your profile and edit it. The new questions will be in the "study and languages" section. Do you know how to get there?

The new questions are: did you attend more than 50% of your studies in person? Did you study full time for at least 8 months? Were you physically present in Canada for at least 8 months during your studies?
Did they ask this to everyone? Why are they asking? I didnt get this yet wondering whats up
 

tomtom104

Star Member
Apr 24, 2022
92
35
Yeah but I haven't received it still. What is it going to be used for? Is it rolling to everybody?
My friend still hasn't either, probably they were not sending at the same time. Or you can just check your profile in "Study" sector
 

tobyboy

Star Member
Sep 25, 2009
121
32
Yeah but I haven't received it still. What is it going to be used for? Is it rolling to everybody?
This is what's in the email:

"This is to notify you that there have been changes to how Express Entry evaluates Canadian education credentials that may impact your Express Entry profile.

If you have claimed to have a Canadian educational credential, you should update your profile by answering three new questions in the Education History section about the amount of in-person study/training, study/training in Canada and full-time study/training you completed to obtain the credential. If these fields remain incomplete, your Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) points score may drop and you could miss an opportunity to be invited to apply for permanent residence."

I updated mine but my score didn't change so I'm not sure how this affects future draws.