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July draw predictions

Ultraxion

Hero Member
May 10, 2022
258
190
I do think 495 has a chance. Maybe not this year, but it will go below 500. I also think they will continue with at least some general draws even after they include category draws. Not to give people false hope, but 495 is not impossible, imo.
I agree with this, but also after C-19 even if there are generic draws the percentage of ppl getting invited through it will shrink, meaning the cutoff will bounce back, to 500+ again would not be at all surprising. I do think 49X can still be optimistic at this point, but the critical point could be the implemetation of C-19, you get ITA before that or never.
 

Sid_rash

Full Member
May 22, 2020
40
3
Guys to confirm for the people who expect to get an ITA before TEER system gets implemented on 16 November 2022, we don't have to change the NOC to TEER right? It would stay according to 2016 until 16-11?
 

lilyt

Full Member
Feb 18, 2022
40
23
you are all forgetting they have promised some kind of program in September for cec
whatever it will be, it will clean the top a little bit
 

SatNight

Hero Member
Dec 2, 2017
797
387
you are all forgetting they have promised some kind of program in September for cec
whatever it will be, it will clean the top a little bit
That remains to be seen. I don't even want to think about it until I see if it's NOC based or not. I know some of it will be NOC based but not sure about the rest.

It also remains to be seen if the new thing will be a part of EE or not.
 

lilyt

Full Member
Feb 18, 2022
40
23
That remains to be seen. I don't even want to think about it until I see if it's NOC based or not. I know some of it will be NOC based but not sure about the rest.

It also remains to be seen if the new thing will be a part of EE or not.
they will keep NOC based draws for the next year
otherwise, it's just insanity
they really need to do something with their pgwp candidates
 

Ultraxion

Hero Member
May 10, 2022
258
190
And if the new thing processes fast (comparable to EE) so high scoring EE are attracted by it rather than waiting for a few more draws. This is all assuming the new thing is not part of EE, in which case could be a program with low priority (slow processing time).
 

lilyt

Full Member
Feb 18, 2022
40
23
and even if it is noc-based, still, it will clear at least some percentage of high ranking candidates
tbh I think this breakdown cic news provided is bullshit
 

SatNight

Hero Member
Dec 2, 2017
797
387
they will keep NOC based draws for the next year
otherwise, it's just insanity
they really need to do something with their pgwp candidates
No, I mean the new TR to PR might be at least in part be NOC based (it will probably be). They singled out occupations in healthcare, occupation and a few more areas. It remains to be seen if it will be only that, or if it also offer some non-NOC related options.

Why do you think the news is incorrect?
 

SatNight

Hero Member
Dec 2, 2017
797
387
No, FSW. CIC News revealed that there were like 200 FSW drawn on July 6 when the cutoff was 557. I assume this is the news they were talking about.
The OP will need to clarify, but the general assumption (among many CEC candidates at least) is that CEC people have lower points and that most people invited in the last two draws were FSW and not CEC.
 

Ultraxion

Hero Member
May 10, 2022
258
190
The OP will need to clarify, but the general assumption (among many CEC candidates at least) is that CEC people have lower points and that most people invited in the last two draws were FSW and not CEC.
Well general assumption is stupid, exactly why some (low scoring) CEC can't compete with FSW even with all the advantages.
 

scylla

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Jun 8, 2010
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