July draw predictions
- Thread starter aommnd
- Start date
This is why I am a libertarian, my default expectation is IRCC like most government entities is incompetent. They will do okay when it's not a challenging situation, and make impulsive and subpar decisions when the time is critical.
Any predictions for score in the next draw? I'm thinking maybe 535 (hopefully not higher)
I'd agree. If we're lucky we might get down to the 520s but that seems unlikely if they keep the small draws.
I wish they provided a breakdown of how many are in each band above 500 like they do for those below. I'd even taken bands of 20 points lol. Just something to have any idea how many I'm competing against.
I wish they provided a breakdown of how many are in each band above 500 like they do for those below. I'd even taken bands of 20 points lol. Just something to have any idea how many I'm competing against.
My PGWP is expiring in February 2023. Currently my score is 484 and my employer agreed to apply for LMIA which will increase my score to 534. However my profile is expiring in August 3rd and I have to create and submit a new profile. So if I consider the tie- breaking rule, there is no chance to get ITA before February. Because In the last draw the tie-breaking rule was until December 2021. So even though my score will increase after getting the LIMA but due to the tie- breaking rule, i dont see any hope to get ITA before February 2023. I m very scared and frustrated. I was wondering if I get LMIA to increase my score, can I still continue working after expiring my PGWP under the same LMIA even if i don’t get ITA? Looking for expert opinions
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To apply for LMIA, your salary must be above the regional median, is that right?
I am so mad only because is turbulence is 100% human-made.
From CRS 75 to 550, fairness means nothing to IRCC.
CEC was suspended for 10 months, the program's continuility means nothing to IRCC.
There is no date for the CRS requirement to drop from 540 to the pre-padanmic level which is about 460-480, the program's consistency means nothing to IRCC.
If the CRS had always been 550 since years ago, I wouldn't complain a little bit. I am not good enought to get this score and be invited.
I wouldn't even have come to Canada if that were the case, because I would know that my chance was too low.
But I came to Canada when it was 470, which is the expectation IRCC gave ppl and ppl were supposed to plan their future based on it.
It should be stable and predictable.
Now, after I have spent a lot of money and time in this country, all of sudden you tell me I don't have a chance?
You ever saw any government departments do this to its own citizens? Just because I am a foreigner I should be played like a fool?
From CRS 75 to 550, fairness means nothing to IRCC.
CEC was suspended for 10 months, the program's continuility means nothing to IRCC.
There is no date for the CRS requirement to drop from 540 to the pre-padanmic level which is about 460-480, the program's consistency means nothing to IRCC.
If the CRS had always been 550 since years ago, I wouldn't complain a little bit. I am not good enought to get this score and be invited.
I wouldn't even have come to Canada if that were the case, because I would know that my chance was too low.
But I came to Canada when it was 470, which is the expectation IRCC gave ppl and ppl were supposed to plan their future based on it.
It should be stable and predictable.
Now, after I have spent a lot of money and time in this country, all of sudden you tell me I don't have a chance?
You ever saw any government departments do this to its own citizens? Just because I am a foreigner I should be played like a fool?
You are affected by a tie breaking rule only if your score is at the cutoff. With 534 points, you have a good chance to be above the cutoff. I mean, we sure hope the cutoff will not be that high later in the year, let alone in February. Tie-breaking rule doesn't affect ALL profiles created at the specific date. Only those that are at the lowest CRS score invited in that round. So if the lowest score is 533 or anything below that, you are not affected. And again, I sure hope it will be nowhere near that later in the year or in February.
I hear you - the pandemic messed things up for everyone (not just CEC). But yes, many of us came to Canada with one set of immigration rules and we organized everything according to that one, only for them to change it. My wife started her PhD during the Doctoral stream, so the assumption was that she could apply for PR after completing a few years of her PhD. Then they abandoned that stream. This is just an example. I was having a heated discussion with FSWs the other day about it, how difficult it is to organize yourself and do something while the work permit clock is ticking. You do something that fits current rules, only for them to change it, and then you wasted a year or so of your work permit that you can't get back. Stuff is always changing. Corona pandemic made a total mess and people (regardless of program: CEC, FSW, everyone) are unfairly left out while doing everything right.
I think they are trying to right that wrong to CEC people through TR to PR new pathway, though. However, we still don't know how that one will look like or who will be eligible. If it's just for people working in health, transportation and other occupations that they mentioned, then it won't mean much because most CEC candidates will be excluded. I know they keep promising things for international graduates but again, if it's NOC specific that doesn't mean much.
The pandemic is no excuse for human stupidity. It's like the central bank printing half of money supply in existence and then say oh inflation is not my fault, it was the supply chain that gets disrupted first. Yes there are external factors, does not mean IRCC should draw down to 75 points without forecasting what the processing timeline would look like. These pensioned gov employees literally spent half the day eating donuts, sipping coffee, and chitchatting, it baffles me as to what the impetus was to have a 75 points draw?
I'm just wondering how the pool will change for 500+. If more and more candidates enter with 520+ then we all know how it will end...
Looking at https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/services/immigrate-canada/express-entry/submit-profile/rounds-invitations.html
1750 were invited, taking out 600+ that means 1170 from the 501-600 pool.
That means 7931 left over, the top candidate from this group had a score <= 541.
In the next draw, assume 1750 invites gain, 600 in PNP so 1150 from 501-600 again.
It really depends on how many candidates enter with 541+ and if there are a lot then the scores won't go down. Assuming nobody joins and an equal distribution between 500-541 of 7931 people, that means 2000 candidates from 530 to 541, hence the score could be 535 for this draw, but assuming nobody with >= 541 and < 600 joins which is doubtful.
tbh with the delays, cec/fsw draws gap and study/work permits backlog they kind of destroyed their reputation completely
I don't see any temporary workers or students coming to Canada in the nearest future
who would want to gamble their life with these fucking idiots
I don't see any temporary workers or students coming to Canada in the nearest future
who would want to gamble their life with these fucking idiots
Even if their reputation sinks to the bottom of Mariana Trench, there will still be loads of ppl coming into Canada.