azarme09 said:
I don't think that this speculation is accurate. If you look at the data on the spreadsheet, you will notice that since the beginning of this year (which was when they implemented pilot OWP and other improvements), it's taking them an average of one month to process one month's worth of applications (as demonstrated by almost all of September'13 being processed, at least for AIP some and AIP+DM for others, within the month of February). In addition to that, when I ordered my notes from CIC the last time (a few weeks ago), the "due date" of my processing was marked as sometime in November 2015. I am an April 3, 2014 applicant.
So I highly doubt that it will take CIC 3 years to process our applications. I think a better assessment would be to wait at least 3 more months and then compare the data.
Oh, it's by no means accurate. It's just a projection using their terrible performance over the past year to show how awfully they've been performing, and how unsustainable it is.
Even now their progress is awful and the backlog will absolutely continue to increase unless they continue to improve. The 2nd projection speculates an exponential improvement, which of course is completely impossible.
...but your comment regarding almost all of September 2013 being processed is not accurate. They're roughly halfway done September 2013, evidenced by them working on September 17, 2013 at the moment.
They began processing September applications around January 10, and it's February 26 now. So, even by generous math, it's been at least a month elapsed for their half-month of progress.
Continuing to process at that rate still means that the processing time goes up by 1 month for every 2 months elapsed.
Using only this past week to gauge their progress, they're still just slightly better, and it would take about 2.3 months for the processing time to go up by a month.
If you use the number CIC gives you as any kind of promise you should have been processed within the 8 or 9 months CIC was quoting back in early April, and you should have had your AIP 2 months ago.