How will you ever know where you stand in Express Entry pool???

[joelmath]

Hey guys,

Going through the recent updates by CIC on EE, it appears that they'll post the lowest score that got selected for Invitation to apply "after" the draws are completed. This leaves all of us in a very uncertain scenario wherein we will never know our chances of selection based on our points.

I was trying to get a rough idea on the number of applicants who may want to apply under EE and could not find any data. The spreadsheet that was created by @srbhrn has only 160 odd entries which is not a great indicator of the reality.

So how many people may enter the pool in the coming months. The Answer is "No idea". Just to make a guess, I checked the number of members who joined this forum on/after 01 Nov 2014 and found 71 pages*99 members per page = 7029 members (I chose Nov assuming that anyone who started FSW 2014 application after this date may not have been able to complete it so would most likely apply under EE pool).

http://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-discussion-board/index.php?action=mlist;sort=registered;desc;start=7000

Now since this forum handles a variety of topics assuming that of these new members 20% may be looking forward to apply for EE seems alright (again this just for a broad idea so there are several assumptions).

That means 1500+ people may apply for EE in the coming months. Or may be less or may be way more....

And nobody has a clue about the profiles of these probable EE entries as majority have not updated their profiles in the EE spreadsheet. So a sincere request to all.. Please update your entries in the spreadsheet below.. even if you think you score above most of the current entries. Thousands may simply be keeping an eye on the spreadsheet but not updating thinking that they have comparatively better scores and will make it through the ITAs and vice versa. Remember if thousands who haven't updated there profiles are the ones with job offer or provincial nominations, several entries with job offers/pnp but with lower overall scores will not be selected for ITA in reality. Alternatively many with scores of under 300 will not proceed further with the process assuming that they'll never be selected while the reality may be that the actual pool has majority with under 200 score.

Basically there is only 1 way for all of us to be certain. please update your profiles. It will save a lot of time and hard earned money for thousands of others.

Spreadsheet created by @srbhrn in this post :

http://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-discussion-board/-t256213.0.html

Express Entry Spreadsheet
http://tinyurl.com/mwstg52

To get yourself entered in Spreadsheet, enter details here:
http://tinyurl.com/ke3hjef

Good luck to all..

 

[boske83]

@joelmath

Although I agree that 160 members in spreadsheet is very few, i think that this random sample is actually very good and will reflect the structure of the pool pretty accurately...
If you think about people who are interested to move - they are either CEC, or FSW... For CEC, most of people are post graduates and their education is usually BsC, and less than 3 years experience, without LMIA... that is 400-450pts...
For FSW class, people have more work experience, but language is bit problematic, so it also puts most of them inside 400-450 category...

So, we need to wait and see, but my personal guess is that 450+ will receive ITA immediately, and there will be struggle in the above mentioned rank...
I can see from the sheet that you seems to be on a safe side

 

[AndreasChen]

@ joelmath

Although I agree that 160 members in spreadsheet is very few, i think that this random sample is actually very good and will reflect the structure of the pool pretty accurately...
If you think about people who are interested to move - they are either CEC, or FSW... For CEC, most of people are post graduates and their education is usually BsC, and less than 3 years experience, without LMIA... that is 400-450pts...
For FSW class, people have more work experience, but language is bit problematic, so it also puts most of them inside 400-450 category...

So, we need to wait and see, but my personal guess is that 450+ will receive ITA immediately, and there will be struggle in the above mentioned rank...
I can see from the sheet that you seems to be on a safe side

Hoping you are right :'(

 

[joelmath]

but my personal guess is that 450+ will receive ITA immediately, and there will be struggle in the above mentioned rank...

This was my opinion as well but then we can never be sure unless there is a good sample size for comparison.. with 481 points currently I may be in the top 20%. I might go ahead with process and spend additional money to fast track everything only to realize "after" the draw that I wasn in the top 2000 selected for ITA..

I was eagerly hoping that CIC will provide more info during the recent Media Advisory on December 18. They clarified that the details of the draws will keep changing based on their requirements and they'll publish the least score after the draw..so its best if we all act together and treat the spreadsheet as our own database and regularly update it..

 

[boske83]

This was my opinion as well but then we can never be sure unless there is a good sample size for comparison.. with 481 points currently I may be in the top 20%. I might go ahead with process and spend additional money to fast track everything only to realize "after" the draw that I wasn in the top 2000 selected for ITA..

I was eagerly hoping that CIC will provide more info during the recent Media Advisory on December 18. They clarified that the details of the draws will keep changing based on their requirements and they'll publish the least score after the draw..so its best if we all act together and treat the spreadsheet as our own database and regularly update it..

First thing we need to see is size of the pool... if in earlier months pool size is smaller, it will be easier to pass with solid marks... i would be worried after April, when a lot of people collect all papers and join in... also, the Job Bank will be used more, which makes more people get LMIA or PNP...

We all risk money for IELTS and WES - and that is it... it is not cheap, but I still believe that with 450+ we will be invited in first next draw... Everything else is on hold until ITA is received - in my country it should not take more than a few days to collect documents, translations and police checks in case we receive ITA...
After the first draw, we will know more for sure, but I also think that the very first draw will not be so good sample because of existing LMIAs and PNPs... just my opinion...

 

[AndreasChen]

For draw the paperwork do not have to be ready.
LMIA will not grow with the job banking either because employers dislike LMIA/LMO itself. The EE job bank is just a government version of Monster.com, which is pretty much a joke.

 

[boske83]

For draw the paperwork do not have to be ready.
LMIA will not grow with the job banking either because employers dislike LMIA/LMO itself. The EE job bank is just a government version of Monster.com, which is pretty much a joke.

Not sure how it works in your country, but here where I am from IELTS test must be scheduled at least 5-6 weeks upfront, and waiting for results is taking 2 weeks. Also, WES evaluation, which is fastest, using courier service takes 4 weeks.
If you compare with 60days period to submit full application after you receive ITA, it means you have to have these two papers upfront. Not to mention IELTS score which is directly affecting CRS points, and if you provide false information you are banned for 5 years. I think there is no guarantee that you can do score on IELTS which you write in your EOI in all 4 categories, so IELTS is pretty much mandatory before EE profile creation.

Other stuff can wait.

 

[AndreasChen]

Not sure how it works in your country, but here where I am from IELTS test must be scheduled at least 5-6 weeks upfront, and waiting for results is taking 2 weeks. Also, WES evaluation, which is fastest, using courier service takes 4 weeks.
If you compare with 60days period to submit full application after you receive ITA, it means you have to have these two papers upfront. Not to mention IELTS score which is directly affecting CRS points, and if you provide false information you are banned for 5 years. I think there is no guarantee that you can do score on IELTS which you write in your EOI in all 4 categories, so IELTS is pretty much mandatory before EE profile creation.

Other stuff can wait.

Definitely agree that IELTS goes first. FYI my WES in to out is Oct.23 to Nov.3.
Find a US/Canada address and you will have it with you fairly quickly. What sücks is that WES makes tons of mistakes, so if it goes back-n-forth, you are screwed.

 

[boske83]

Definitely agree that IELTS goes first. FYI my WES in to out is Oct.23 to Nov.3.
Find a US/Canada address and you will have it with you fairly quickly. What sücks is that WES makes tons of mistakes, so if it goes back-n-forth, you are screwed.

Exactly - this is why i have decided to do it upfront. it is not so expensive, in case we get PR we will be able to compensate it within a month.

Unlike our companion Joelmath, i am very confident that we will be able to receive ITA in first few draws after we submit EOI (we have 467 pts), therefore we will risk that funds in case something goes different to our expectations. We hope for the best, but I think we will know for sure after 2-3 draws, by the end of February.

 

[AndreasChen]

Exactly - this is why i have decided to do it upfront. it is not so expensive, in case we get PR we will be able to compensate it within a month.

Unlike our companion Joelmath, i am very confident that we will be able to receive ITA in first few draws after we submit EOI (we have 467 pts), therefore we will risk that funds in case something goes different to our expectations. We hope for the best, but I think we will know for sure after 2-3 draws, by the end of February.

CIC expects first draw to happen at the end of Jan2015. By the 200,000 full year target it is reasonable to assume 10,000 will be drawn. CIC indicated 1,200 LMIA are awaiting EE, so the question is how many PNP will be in the first draw to fill up the first draw. Note that only a proportion of PNP will go through EE.

 

[boske83]

CIC expects first draw to happen at the end of Jan2015. By the 200,000 full year target it is reasonable to assume 10,000 will be drawn. CIC indicated 1,200 LMIA are awaiting EE, so the question is how many PNP will be in the first draw to fill up the first draw. Note that only a proportion of PNP will go through EE.

hmm I am not sure about this figures - can you share the source?
What I understood from the media teleconference, is that they expect low number of LMIA, and that they provide example of 2014 where only 1200 LMIA applicants applied, in addition to 80-100k PRs they want to provide this year including spouses and common law partners.

Also, they have confirmed that they will have 15-25 draws in 2015, which makes around 2000-3000 ITAs per draw, if you count in spouses.

 

[AndreasChen]

hmm I am not sure about this figures - can you share the source?
What I understood from the media teleconference, is that they expect low number of LMIA, and that they provide example of 2014 where only 1200 LMIA applicants applied, in addition to 80-100k PRs they want to provide this year including spouses and common law partners.

Also, they have confirmed that they will have 15-25 draws in 2015, which makes around 2000-3000 ITAs per draw, if you count in spouses.

Was it 80-100k? I listened to a very noisy recording and thought it was 200k ???
If 90k, the Jan draw should be around 7,500 then (counting spouses)? Otherwise they need to speedup later on because there is going to be only one draw in Jan.

 

[boske83]

Was it 80-100k? I listened to a very noisy recording and thought it was 200k ???
If 90k, the Jan draw should be around 7,500 then? Otherwise they need to speedup later on because there is going to be only one draw in Jan.

yeah, it was noisy, i have listened to that part at least 10 times, and I am still not confident that I have heard it right - some annoying persons were talking all the time.
They have mentioned that they need to wait to pool to fill a bit before draw, this is why it is not strict 24 draws, but 15-25... Also, I think the last month's draws will be for the most of candidates, and that January one will be test draw, for 2-3k candidates... at least I would act in that manner, if I am Canada - wait for competition inside pool, then choose the best...
And still, I would place a bet that even January draw threshold will be 450 CRS points...

 

[AndreasChen]

I would place a bet that even January draw threshold will be 450 CRS points...

One point clearance and fingers crossed
I blasted my speaker to its highest and now it sounds to me like "[beep] between [beep] EIGHTY TO A HUNDRED thousand"
I think you are right, and I just caught "two-hundred" by mistake...

 

[srbhrn]

I was away for a few days and just got back to have a look at the spreadsheet.. it is currently at 160+ entries, but I see that everyday more and more people are getting added to it.

I am expecting it to stand at 300+ by the time EE starts.. that is when we would know how many are actually going to be a part of first draw.. and should give a fair idea of where we stand

I assume this spreadsheet to play a longer part as and when actual ITAs are sent as people can compare their own profile to successful candidates in last few draws..

After 100 entries, the average score stood at 366 and right now it is above 380.. I would assume it to finish somewhere at 400+ and as per me, the first draw should list ITAs for higher ends of 400...

Thanks for entering yourself in SS, if not then please do so now ..