Same shoes buddy, sitting at 478 waiting for a FSW invite.
If it is the same old FSW with biweekly draws I would say that 2000/draw. Every invite after 2023 February won’t make the landing in 2023 thus won’t be able to contribute to 2023 fsw target which is 75K as far as I can recall. So invites between 2022 July and 2023 February will contribute to 2023 target. If we expect usual biweekly draws that means approximately 20 draws in that period. 2000*20=40K. Taking into account that most people have families or at least one dependent (on average), 40K invite can cover 80K people and they are done with 2023.
My math is not so precise, probably invites after 2023 Jan won’t be able to make in in 2023 then it means ircc has roughly 15 invitation rounds to invite those 40K people then 3000/draw is likely.
I think you are safe if your ielts expires only next year. I am losing point in Nov due to age, I think I won’t going to make it if thr draw size is 2000K:/ with 3000K, probably. I would be happy with 2024 landing though (I want to land in summer and not work for a month or two. That would be like a dream
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