Hi everyone,
I've been analyzing NOC caps estimates a lot recently, and, specifically, how many applications are added to the spreadsheet much later than they're received by CIC.
Here's the result of the analysis:
Let's consider amount of applications that are received today and that will be registered in the spreadsheet in the next 130 days. Let's take this amount as 100% (it's never really 100%, because the apps keep getting added slowly even far away into future, but for the purpose of this explanation it's fine).
Then, half of those applications will be added to the spreadsheet by the applicants within the first 6 days after they're received by CIC,
about 80% will be added within 45 days,
95% will be added within 100 days.
10% of applications are added more than about 4 days
before they're received.
This led me to a thought that the current NOC cap estimates still did not account for this effect completely, so I've updated the estimates to reflect that, to be on the safer side. Now the pessimistic estimate is that for applications received at CIC today, caps for hot NOCs (1112, 2132, 2171, 2173, 2174) are either full already or pretty close to being full.
Realistic estimate still leaves some more time for all NOCs except for NOC 2174. But again, it's still an estimate and there are many variables that affect it.
The same analysis has been applied really well to the charge date estimates - I hope, now the charge date estimates will drift much less over time
