Hi everyone,
As our previously estimated Cap Full dates come closer for NOC 2173 and 2174, I felt like a single estimated Cap Full date per NOC doesn't really represent a complete range of possible outcomes. The existing estimates were mostly conservative/pessimistic, but in reality there can actually be much more room for more applications.
I've re-checked FSW 2013 data, made some additional calculations from FSW 2014 official cap data and cross-referenced all of it. As a result, I've added a second estimated Cap Full date, which is more realistic based on the observed data
It's now in the spreadsheet, on the
"Apps by NOC / Cap estimates" tab.
Interestingly enough, according to the calculations, cap for NOC 1112 does not gets full for applications received until New Year even in the pessimistic case.
If anyone is interested where did I get all the percentages for the estimates, here's a major part of my calculations (tables, formulas and charts):
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11hVAKeHjNUWusOSeRdd7QWXpLiUJeHB8DmFSa2Zl_LI/edit#gid=270344101
Not all the values are named there, but I hope formulas speak for themselves for interested individuals.
Here's another part, for FSW 2013 data (apparently, spreadsheet-to-worldwide percentages were calculated incorrectly in the FSW 2013 spreadsheet! The estimated Cap Full dates are further away with proper percentages):
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AhXTGxY6rOpidFVuRUhzcHptLVpSWlpKYVRmNm9tOFE#gid=70
I've reviewed and double-checked my calculations carefully, but if someone wants to re-check by himself and has questions, I'm open to discussion.