Many people here say that because already over 660 apps are filled for 2174 for applications that have received PER till roughly May 22, the cap will be filled by mid-June, I created the following analysis.
The graph shows the cumulated amount of apps received in the SS by date for the 5 hottest NOC.
Assuming that the CAP update by CIC includes PERs for all apps received until May 22, we can figure out that on May 22, the number of apps in the SS for 2174 is 222. Let's divide this by the 662 that CIC updated this Monday and we can conclude that roughly 33.5% of all apps received by CIC for 2174 are included in the SS.
The question now is, when does the CAP reach overall 1000. To figure this out, I checked when the apps in the SS reached 335 (33.5% out of 1000), which happened on August 14.
My analysis presumes that all people who have not reported back their status for May 1 - 22 received PER and did simply not update their entry in the SS, which accounts to roughly 25%. Their might be a few May 1 - 22 applicants that still will receive PER and were not yet considered in the cap updates by CIC, but as there were also some May 23/26 applicants that received PER already, this number should balance.
I hope that this is helpful for anyone even though my estimate is more pessimistic that the official SS estimate.
All other caps are not filled yet, but based on this analysis, 2173 should be next in early October.
Again, this is just my personal take on this and only an estimate. Please do not freak out.
