manish baissoya said:
Total received toward the overall cap: 887 of 25,000 are PER received for applications reached CIO till 7th May 2014.
That means below numbers are for applications counted in 1 week around the world, or can assume application/ seats filled in 1 week.
So on that basis, below hot NOCs' will be filled in following weeks.
1112 Financial and investment analysts -- 198 seats filled in 1 week.
So, 1000 seats will be filled in 1000/198 - 5 weeks. - in 38 days - till 8th June 2014.
2174 Computer programmers and interactive media developers -- 197 seats filled in 1 week.
So, 1000 seats will be filled in 1000/197 - 5 weeks. - in 39 days - till 10th June 2014.
2173 Software engineers and designers -- 99 seats filled in 1 week.
So, 1000 seats will be filled in 1000/99 - 10 weeks. - in 70 days - till 10th July 2014.
2171 Information systems analysts and consultants -- 64 seats filled in 1 week.
So, 1000 seats will be filled in 1000/64 - 15 weeks. - in 105 days - till 15th August 2014.
2132 Mechanical engineers -- 58 seats filled in 1 week.
So, 1000 seats will be filled in 1000/58 - 17 weeks. - in 119 days - till 30th August 2014.
2281 Computer network technicians -- 44 seats filled in 1 week.
So, 1000 seats will be filled in 1000/44 - 22 weeks. - in 154 days - till 24th Sep 2014.
2133Electrical and electronics engineers -- 33 seats filled in 1 week.
So, 1000 seats will be filled in 1000/ 33 - 30 weeks. - in 210 days - till 30 th Nov 2014.
2131Civil engineers -- 32 seats filled in 1 week.
So, 1000 seats will be filled in 1000/32 - 31 weeks. - in 217 days - till 7th Dec 2014.
And rest all NOC will be filled after 7th December 2014, it is just an assumption .
I think its a gud topic u hav highlighted but it is way too difficult to predict by when cap may b filled for hot categories like 1112...and above mentioned calculation would b too simplistic, as pointed out by sum1 that 300 cap for NOC 1112 fr 2013 was filled by 27th may so to assume 8th june for 1000 applications would b vry aggressive..nobody can say that it cannot happen but doesn't look probable...
I think # of applications in the
SS visa-vi the # PERs issued till date for a NOC might give a better view. So this is my try at giving out tentative PERs filled for NOC 1112 by 15 Aug 2014...Plz this is just an assumption guess work so do not hold me to it if the cap is filled much sooner or much later.
This is only for NOC 1112. I base my calculation on the # of applications in the
SS and # of PER issued till date along with some historical and current trends.
Total # of PER issued as per CIC are 198 till 7th May (assumption no 8th may PERs as per forum data) and
SS indicates 42 PERs issued, so this makes about 21.2% ratio (SS PERs / CIC PERs)...now assuming this trend and # of 1112 applications in the
SS this would mean that only 651 PERs will be issued till 15/8/14. This is based on total 148 applications for 1112 in the
SS (few have been excluded as no receive dates were mentioned), current acceptance rate of 93% for this category as per SS data, and finally applying 21.2% rate. This gives out 651 PERs to b issued by 15/8/14..would this mean every1 who has applied till now in such a HOT category will be safe...
...
may b and may b not. Bcoz I think that 21.2% might not be a true representation and this should b lower as lot of 2013 applicants were there till 7th may and they were much more active on the forums, and updated the
SS, and this might not b true fr lot of recent applicants. I also think that 1112 candidate usually belong to KPOs which r much more demanding (plz no offense to other professions) and may not b vry active on forums. Just my assumption.I for sure do not belong to this category.
So below is the table indicating the PERs issued based on varying rate (SS PERs / CIC PERs) from the current 21.2% to 2013 rate of 19.7% to some much more lower assumed rates.
21% 20%18% 16% 14% 13% 1112 apps in SS
5/07/2014 198 198 198 198 198 198 58
5/14/2014 431 465 508 572 653 704 98
5/21/2014 506 546 596 671 767 826 115
5/28/2014 532 574 627 706 807 869 121
6/04/2014 550 593 648 729 833 897 125
6/05/2014 559 603 659 741 847 912 127
6/12/2014 581 626 684 770 880 948 132
6/13/2014 581 626 684 770 880 948 132
6/18/2014 590 636 695 782 893 962 134
6/19/2014 590 636 695 782 893 962 134
6/20/2014 594 641 700 788 900 969 135
6/23/2014 594 641 700 788 900 969 135
6/24/2014 603 650 710 799 913 984 137
6/25/2014 603 650 710 799 913 984 137
7/04/2014 616 664 726 817 933 1000 140
7/07/2014 616 664 726 817 933 140
7/08/2014 616 664 726 817 933 140
7/17/2014 634 683 747 840 960 144
7/18/2014 634 683 747 840 960 144
7/21/2014 634 683 747 840 960 144
7/22/2014 634 683 747 840 960 144
8/15/2014 651 702 767 863 987 148
The above table was based on what is the universe represented by total # of 11112 category applications in the
SS compared to total actual applications for 1112. This clearly shows that based on historical and recent trends the 1112 applicants who hav applied till 15th aug would b safe but then if the SS (the forum members) for ths category are under represented than assumed based on historical trends, lets say smthing like just 13% of total applications, then this category may be filled up by early july. What wuld b interesting is if the rate of CIC PERs issued for this category sharply decline, as SS applications for 1112 indicate, then every1 who has applied til now wuld b safe.
I knw all this is just fudging wid assumptions. i have been just working arnd on the
SS for calculating tentative cap fill date for categories of my interest and even I am still not sure that this is correct but I can atleast see some range here based on + or - few variations.
Will try not to bore all of u wid these calculations further but had to put this in open after manish's post. 8)