FSW 2013 Applicants Timeline- Lets Network Here.

[jars123]

I sent my application early June under the NOC 2174. I had an issue though. I sent the older version of the schedule 3 form. I know one other person got their application returned because of the older schedule 3 form. I remember few more forum members also sent the older schedule 3 form. Did any of them got their CC charged or application returned recently ?

 

[ez2remember]

but this time the rules are little complicated like
ECA
IELTS 6 BAND EACH
SPOUSE IELTS SCORE
AGE FACTOR
Therefore it will take atleast 16 days for the hot NOCS to get filled because the intake/ noc is only 300 compared to 500 of 2011.

yes this year it takes longer, I guess too.

 

[ez2remember]

I guess CIC will update the site after they complete one week of documents. So once May 13 is done, they will update the site.

So by assuming that if it'll really happen, we can estimate better after the update. just waiting...

 

[kkj]

It took NOC 1112 just 10 days to get filled up in 2011 as per the forum's spreadsheet.....i guess this should give brief idea hw scenario this year should be.... (Dont keep any expectations - Hot NOCs)

PS : Found this info from 2011 forum spreadsheet in "returned application" tab

NOC 1112 was not there in 2011....You are mixing 1122 (Professional Occupations in Business Services to Management) with 1112...

 

[balkanada]

It took NOC 1112 just 10 days to get filled up in 2011 as per the forum's spreadsheet.....i guess this should give brief idea hw scenario this year should be.... (Dont keep any expectations - Hot NOCs)

Nizam, I beg to differ so I will still keep my expectations. Sorry, but I applied late and I can't just say now - I'm giving up hope!

BTW, I don't believe the global cap can possibly be met 'till September because of one simple reason - the limit is put at 300 per NOC and there are with current CIC update only 6 NOCs that have more than 1 case processed. Let's call them hot - that's 6*300=1800 apps that will be filled fast. Who's gonna fill the rest of 3200 applications to hit the global limit, until September?
Currently we have 14 NOCs that don't have a single application. NOCs 3214-3218 will be happy if they get 100 apps all together (a flimsy personal estimate). But I think this year the difference between hot and cold NOCs will be even bigger than 2011, which will slow down the global cap hit. What will happen faster is hot NOC caps.

 

[balkanada]

BTW, I don't believe the global cap can possibly be met 'till September because of one simple reason - the limit is put at 300 per NOC and there are with current CIC update only 6 NOCs that have more than 1 case processed. Let's call them hot - that's 6*300=1800 apps that will be filled fast. Who's gonna fill the rest of 3200 applications to hit the global limit, until September?
Currently we have 14 NOCs that don't have a single application. NOCs 3214-3218 will be happy if they get 100 apps all together (a flimsy personal estimate). But I think this year the difference between hot and cold NOCs will be even bigger than 2011, which will slow down the global cap hit. What will happen faster is hot NOC caps.

Further, to break the global limit, we need approximately 12-15 NOCs hitting their own limit (which goes in total to around 3600-4500 applications) with the rest of 'cold' NOCs making up the difference. I don't see that happening so soon.

Another important thing - it took 10.5 months last year to fill 10000 applications, with NOC limit at 500 and with 29 NOCs. 29*500=14500 => that means NOC caps summed were at 145% of global cap.

Now there are 24 NOCs, the NOC limit is at 300, for 5000 application, so that would make: 24*300=7200, so NOC caps summed together are 144% of the global cap, so the situation is almost the same and I expect around the same time to hit the global limit this year.. So somewhere in winter/spring 2013.

Unless we also calculate in the bigger hot/cold extremes this year (call it a global warming ) which will slow down the global cap hitting even more, I'd say there are even chances for global cap not being hit at all before 30th April 2014, when the whole thing ends.

Simply - there will be many people standing at the entrance, but many of the doors will be too small to go through.

 

[idima]

Nizam, I beg to differ so I will still keep my expectations. Sorry, but I applied late and I can't just say now - I'm giving up hope!

BTW, I don't believe the global cap can possibly be met 'till September because of one simple reason - the limit is put at 300 per NOC and there are with current CIC update only 6 NOCs that have more than 1 case processed. Let's call them hot - that's 6*300=1800 apps that will be filled fast. Who's gonna fill the rest of 3200 applications to hit the global limit, until September?
Currently we have 14 NOCs that don't have a single application. NOCs 3214-3218 will be happy if they get 100 apps all together (a flimsy personal estimate). But I think this year the difference between hot and cold NOCs will be even bigger than 2011, which will slow down the global cap hit. What will happen faster is hot NOC caps.

Do you realize, that latest CIC "update" was about applications received in the first couple of days since they started to accept applications?
Their figures are absolutely irrelevant now.

 

[idima]

And another update will be about next couples of days additionally, altogether about 1st week since the program started.

It wil only give you a slight hint about speed of their process, and if you extrapolate new figures further in time you can make predictions about when the hot caps will be filled.

They don't want you to now when the hot caps will be closed. Period.
That is why they put their updates that meaningless way.

They are messing with us.

 

[Soundless]

2174 - 60

up to 10th of May

Or


90 up to 12th (Friday)

 

[luckyshyama]

Is it a good move to send the missing documents thru a post. I think i missed additional document for my spouse form.

Please thro some light on it friends!!!

Regards,
Lucky

 

[Soundless]

2174 - 124

:-X up to which date?

 

[balkanada]

Do you realize, that latest CIC "update" was about applications received in the first couple of days since they started to accept applications?
Their figures are absolutely irrelevant now.

Of course I do, I wasn't speaking in absolute numbers, but in relative. We have:
1112 - 28 apps
2174 - 15 apps
2147 - 7 apps

And almost all of the rest are 1 or 0, so that shows the ratio among the NOCs. And somehow - it makes sense to me that exactly those NOCs will be huge, so, again to me, it doesn't seem so far away from how I expect the data to look in couple of months too. Now, that is nothing more then slightly educated guess.

Naturally, as I keep saying all the time too - this stats pie is so small that it are barely usable, so all we can do is extrapolate the mutual ratios, though this data is probably influenced by batch processing etc.

I *would* like to see some update soon.

They don't want you to now when the hot caps will be closed. Period.

About that, I don't think it really matters what they'd like - hot NOCs will be done QUICKLY (I just hope not too quickly for me), and I'm pretty sure most of the people realize that. Or at least all people that took some efforts/reading on the subject.

 

[idima]

Is it a good move to send the missing documents thru a post. I think i missed additional document for my spouse form.

Please thro some light on it friends!!!

Regards,
Lucky

Send it. Nothing to lose.

You already invested so much money and time into this project, why do not take additional small step?

 

[idima]

Of course I do, I wasn't speaking in absolute numbers, but in relative. We have:
1112 - 28 apps
2174 - 15 apps
2147 - 7 apps

And almost all of the rest are 1 or 0, so that shows the ratio among the NOCs. And somehow - it makes sense to me that exactly those NOCs will be huge, so, again to me, it doesn't seem so far away from how I expect the data to look in couple of months too. Now, that is nothing more then slightly educated guess.

Naturally, as I keep saying all the time too - this stats pie is so small that it are barely usable, so all we can do is extrapolate the mutual ratios, though this data is probably influenced by batch processing etc.

I *would* like to see some update soon.

About that, I don't think it really matters what they'd like - hot NOCs will be done QUICKLY (I just hope not too quickly for me), and I'm pretty sure most of the people realize that. Or at least all people that took some efforts/reading on the subject.

The point is that we have no idea if that small pieces of "stat pie" they are kindly feeding us time from time
represents only 1 hour or 1 day or whatever days from the start of the program.

Our spreadsheet gives us much more info and stat information for making educated guess. Many thanks to admins who running it.

Once again the way they put CIC updates is absolutely meaningless and misleading.

 

[Mahyn]

Hi guys,

One question that came to my mind after reading some comments here in the forum:

Is it mandatory to send the IELTS results for one's spouse even if no claim is made for Adaptabilty Points from the spousal language ability?

I sent in my application form without the IELTS for my spouse. I am not claiming any points for her language ability. I have 72 points without that.

Your opinion please :-\