Express entry : New Stats Revealed!

[Jcgo9355]

I think the 3,000 figure is highly doubtful.

Based on the spreadsheet, a total of 29 out of 1,558 people who received invitation from this forum.

This indicates that our spreadsheet roughly represents 3% of the total eligible application population.

Based on the number of people on our spreadsheet, also to account for the number of people did not register themselves on the spreadsheet, I think we are looking at approximately 15,000 eligible application in the pool, if not more.

Of course, because the sample size is small, this projection may not fairly reflects the total number of eligible application in the pool.

Personally I welcome the idea that there's only 3,000 people in the pool though.

 

[AndreasChen]

You need to learn more entry level statistics.

 

[Globaldesi]

Any dates on the third draw and Job Bank activaton, folks? Has anyone tried applying for Provincial Nomination yet for the EE program?

 

[bomber1980]

I give my personal idea.

I think the numbers that they have given are reasonable as I do not think that the total number of people who applied for e.g. FSW met the minimum marks required. We do not have to forget is not a new way to apply for the permanent works but just a different tool. In other words, whoever passed the 67 marks with the previous system will get the ITA in the next future.

It is also normal that at the moment only the people with a job offer or provincial nomination have been called but I assume that in the future they will not only consider the number of CRS but also the NOCs as for the previous systems. You can see from our shared spreadsheet that there is no balance about the number of people for each NOC and I assume that in the next draws (e.g. in 2-3 months time) there will maybe somebody with 360 points getting the ITA for a NOC with a few people applying and not somebody e.g. applying for a popular NOC but with 400 points.

I think that whoever got more than 67 marks with the previous system needs only to "wait and see" for the next draws.

 

[Globaldesi]

I give my personal idea.

I think the numbers that they have given are reasonable as I do not think that the total number of people who applied for e.g. FSW met the minimum marks required. We do not have to forget is not a new way to apply for the permanent works but just a different tool. In other words, whoever passed the 67 marks with the previous system will get the ITA in the next future.

It is also normal that at the moment only the people with a job offer or provincial nomination have been called but I assume that in the future they will not only consider the number of CRS but also the NOCs as for the previous systems. You can see from our shared spreadsheet that there is no balance about the number of people for each NOC and I assume that in the next draws (e.g. in 2-3 months time) there will maybe somebody with 360 points getting the ITA for a NOC with a few people applying and not somebody e.g. applying for a popular NOC but with 400 points.

I think that whoever got more than 67 marks with the previous system needs only to "wait and see" for the next draws.

This makes sense to me, bomber! Do people think it will be a good idea to start a parallel stream of PNP/ FSWP'14 as well besides EE'15?

 

[bomber1980]

This contradicts what CIC have said publicly. ITAs are being issued in a fully automated way and are based on CRS points exclusively, not on NOCs. There is no indication that this will change, and certainly not in the next few draws.

They are planning to use job offers and provincial nominations as the sole indicator for which skills are actually in demand, rather than a top down estimate by some government bureaucrat who has calculated that next year Canada needs 9.7% more truck drivers. That is the whole point of the new system.

That said, there is the possibility for program-sepcific draws (e.g. CEC only). In this case, it is possible that candidates with lower scores are chosen simply because the average cut-off score in that subset may be lower.

If you on the CIC website, they say:

CIC will invite candidates from the Express Entry pool to apply on a regular basis. Every round of invitations will have a set of instructions the electronic system will use to invite candidates from the pool. These instructions will be posted on the Citizenship and Immigration Canada website before each round of invitations..

These instructions will include:

the date and time of the round of invitations,
the number of candidates that will get an ITA, and
if it applies, which specific immigration program(s) will be included.
If the instructions do not specify which immigration program the candidates must be eligible for, the invitations will be based solely on the Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) score.

and if you go to the instructions:

The Express Entry application management system will be primarily governed using Ministerial Instructions. These instructions are authorized by s.10.3(1) of the IRPA, which includes provisions that authorize the Minister to issue instructions to manage most features of the Express Entry system.

Express Entry Ministerial Instructions include:

The economic immigration programs included in Express Entry and associated eligibility criteria;
The electronic submission process a candidate must complete in order to submit an Express Entry profile, and any associated exemptions;
How candidates will be ranked in the Express Entry pool;
Information on invitation-to-apply draws;
Time limits for the maximum amount of time a candidate can be in the Express Entry pool, and if invited, how long they have to submit an application for permanent residence;
Candidate information that can be shared with third parties including other government departments; and,
How candidates will be notified about any matter relating to their expression of interest.


When they talk about associated programs and associated eligilibity criteria, I read this that it will not only depend on the CRS points only but also on eligibility criteria which may be the NOCs. If it was on CRS points only they would have put this in writing or not be vague as in this case

 

[Globaldesi]

They are planning to use job offers and provincial nominations as the sole indicator for which skills are actually in demand, rather than a top down estimate by some government bureaucrat who has calculated that next year Canada needs 9.7% more truck drivers. That is the whole point of the new system.

Dan,

i believe if this will be the case there is a high possibility that they will end up having too many immigrants with common skills only rather than a diverse skill set. I dont think any govt wants that.

Secondly, if they want to use job offers and PN- I dont think the system is geared up yet. The Job bank doesnt work, no one knows when it will work. I am assuming that express entry was initiated to attract people living out of Canada, hence, they might not have a provincial nomination and most of the PN's criteria is to have a job offer. Plus, any corporate might refrain from giving job offers to candidates living overseas and may need an onboarding time of 6-7 months (if everything goes well). IMHO, i dont think Job offers and PN will be the sole criteria as lot of candidates might not even have them in the first place.

regards.

 

[bomber1980]

Yes, this just confirms what I said before: there may be program specific draws with their own eligibility criteria. This is different from ranking criteria though - rankings will still be based on CRS within that subset, and not on NOC.

Also:

13. Will there be a list of eligible occupations for Express Entry?
No. Express Entry will not include an eligible occupation list or occupation caps at the time of launch.

In my opinion, saying Express Entry will not include an eligible occupation list or occupation caps at the time of launch could mean two things:
Not including eligibile occupation does not mean the there will not be a specific selection for each NOC. A list of eligible occupation was a list of a few NOCs required, here they are just saying that EE is open to all NOCs.
Occupation caps is a limit of people for each NOC but does not mean that the minimum CRS may vary from NOC to NOC.
then they talks at the time of launch. So, everything may change.

 

[bomber1980]

Dan,

i believe if this will be the case there is a high possibility that they will end up having too many immigrants with common skills only rather than a diverse skill set. I dont think any govt wants that.

Secondly, if they want to use job offers and PN- I dont think the system is geared up yet. The Job bank doesnt work, no one knows when it will work. I am assuming that express entry was initiated to attract people living out of Canada, hence, they might not have a provincial nomination and most of the PN's criteria is to have a job offer. Plus, any corporate might refrain from giving job offers to candidates living overseas and may need an onboarding time of 6-7 months (if everything goes well). IMHO, i dont think Job offers and PN will be the sole criteria as lot of candidates might not even have them in the first place.

regards.

I agree

 

[Globaldesi]

So what do we do?? is the million dollar question!! Ontario is still saying they dont have a strategy to align with EE program hehe. I think people should not put all eggs in one basket...if you got the moolah, apply for other active programs.

Has someone read confirmed news about the number of immgrants they want to hire through EE program? I have heard the ceiling is 2.8 Lac for 2015. How many of this number will be from EE stream and how many through the regular programs. This data might be able to help us with their next actions plans and process.

 

[Globaldesi]

Thanks dan! So this means around 1.8 Lac including FSW (51K) and other programs...these guys are going a bit slow with apprs 1500 candidates in the first draw.

 

[jatinnidhi]

definately!!!!!!!!

the damm system make stuck every thing, disturb all planning. need some improvement to attract more candidate in pool.

 

[john1818]

Actually, we've been talking about this issue since the 1st draw in January, there is a myriad of topics on this board on the PGWP holders situation, the discussions are so heated that one of them was deleted. We've created a petiton that was featured in Globe and mail and on CTV.
https://www.change.org/p/citizenship-and-immigration-canada-candidates-on-open-work-permits-and-working-in-canada-need-more-visibility-in-express-entry-system

Other than that, what else can be done? Possible solutions:
1. Try to get a PNP or LMIA*
2. If you are not eligible for PNP and your company is not willing to arrange a LMIA for you, then try to find a new job, where they'll get you a LMIA
3. just wait until the score (hopefully) goes down
4. if you have the funds, go back to a university and apply for a Study permit

* I've heard on this board, positive LMIA was denied for 70% of all the LMIA applications, if your job is in NOC B category, it'll be very hard to get a positive LMIA. Also it takes up to 3-4 months to get it, as some say, if you get a EE specific LMIA, that's a bit faster but you won't be allowed to work after you WP expires and untill you obtain the PR status, which might take up to 6 months.

What esle can be done?

My WP expires in May and am going to start packing in April.

I applied under EE in January and I'll be in the pool until Jan. 2016. If I go back home, which means, I'll lose my current job, do I still have a chance to get ITA? In other words, will that fact that I've lost my job affect my current score?

You current score won't be affected my friend. You have already build up your experience and nobody can take that away from you. You will get ITA once the score drops.

 

[DevilCried2Me]

+1 petition , please encourage more related people to file for petition.

 

[fkl]

You current score won't be affected my friend. You have already build up your experience and nobody can take that away from you. You will get ITA once the score drops.

Second that. It is just uncertainty and inconvenience for the time being. Nothing beyond that.