Good analysis. The rate of new profiles above 450 CRS in July is also consistent with the overall rate in the first six months of the year. 12,017 invitations in six months without dropping below 450 would result into a 24,000 invitations in the full year provided the rate of new profiles above 450 does not reduce. This means candidates like me in the range of 400 to 450 have to actively pursue for improving their score through IELTS or try for a provincial nomination.pk_2015 said:
Express Entry mid year report by CIC July 31 2015- Very Informative!
- Thread starter Ibyt
- Start date
Hi all,
I've created a Google Sheet doc to try to estimate when I might be invited with my 417 points. I hope it will be useful to you guys as well.
Link: https + :// + docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1XO6AIf4A_mz3NUqrSAcvJMGrF85ngiUKBkeeQJ4zFj8/edit?usp=sharing
* Make sure copy the 3 parts of the link properly. I had to write it like that as this forum doesn't allow for links to be posted ( ?? )
Make sure to create a new copy of that doc in order to be able to change the values (like cut-off point row).
Some assumptions:
2 rounds of invitations per month, 1500 invites each
About 3000 influx of new profiles in the pool (1500 per week) distributed following distribution on Jun 6th
I've interpolated the points distribution for 400-449 segment into 3 segments. I've distributed points there by having 2/3 of profiles in higher segment than the next lower one. I hope I've guessed it close.
Probably some other as well...
To me the estimation seems reasonable if CIC expects to fulfill it's plan for 2015. Also LMIAs and nominations are much harder to get this year (most nominations also require LMIAs which I don't really get). Looking at the last 2 rounds the estimation is a bit too optimistic as I guess inflow profiles averaged higher than expected with minimum point cut of 451 (the sheet would have it at about 440-445)
For my 417 points I expect an invite in the first round in October (small chance) or the 2nd round of October (reasonable chance). 400 point cut-off seems to be reached in late February - March next year. I expect a new round in the next couple of days, we'll see...
To clarify the data in the sheet: the big table values show how the pool grows not counting the size decrease when people get invited, cut-off sum row shows number of profile above a row number (now row 16, so 417 points and above), and "(with invitations)" row shows that sum decrease by invitations every round. So when that last row goes below zero (green cells) the chances are you will get invited in that round (depending how good the assumptions are of course).
Cheers!
I've created a Google Sheet doc to try to estimate when I might be invited with my 417 points. I hope it will be useful to you guys as well.
Link: https + :// + docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1XO6AIf4A_mz3NUqrSAcvJMGrF85ngiUKBkeeQJ4zFj8/edit?usp=sharing
* Make sure copy the 3 parts of the link properly. I had to write it like that as this forum doesn't allow for links to be posted ( ?? )
Make sure to create a new copy of that doc in order to be able to change the values (like cut-off point row).
Some assumptions:
2 rounds of invitations per month, 1500 invites each
About 3000 influx of new profiles in the pool (1500 per week) distributed following distribution on Jun 6th
I've interpolated the points distribution for 400-449 segment into 3 segments. I've distributed points there by having 2/3 of profiles in higher segment than the next lower one. I hope I've guessed it close.
Probably some other as well...
To me the estimation seems reasonable if CIC expects to fulfill it's plan for 2015. Also LMIAs and nominations are much harder to get this year (most nominations also require LMIAs which I don't really get). Looking at the last 2 rounds the estimation is a bit too optimistic as I guess inflow profiles averaged higher than expected with minimum point cut of 451 (the sheet would have it at about 440-445)
For my 417 points I expect an invite in the first round in October (small chance) or the 2nd round of October (reasonable chance). 400 point cut-off seems to be reached in late February - March next year. I expect a new round in the next couple of days, we'll see...
To clarify the data in the sheet: the big table values show how the pool grows not counting the size decrease when people get invited, cut-off sum row shows number of profile above a row number (now row 16, so 417 points and above), and "(with invitations)" row shows that sum decrease by invitations every round. So when that last row goes below zero (green cells) the chances are you will get invited in that round (depending how good the assumptions are of course).
Cheers!
I've put a short description in the post above:munjal said:
I'll try to improve it by calculating all data in the big table above so that it's more clear when I get a chance...
Cheers
Yeah, thanks.Jazzman said:
I've improved the sheet a bit so hopefully now it is a bit more clear. If only we could get more detailed stats from CIC we could do more precise estimations... (more finely grained point distribution and distribution of points of new profiles in the last month would be great)
According to the report, by July 6, there were only 2181 eligible applications in total with scores above 450 points. However, the number of ITAs was about 12000 by this time. Am I the only one who can't understand this? Can someone, please explain to us how's that possible? I suspect I don't really understand what numbers in this report really mean.
The pool is dynamic. Anyone who gets an ITA exits the pool. So these 12000 people entered the pool anytime between 1st Jan and 6th July and exited after getting their ITAs leaving behind those 2181 eligible applicants (as on that date) with 450+ points.Denis-ne said:
Yes, you are right. I just had to reread the report a couple of times. Wording there is pretty nebulous in some places.
I had to add these 12K invitations to the pool (according to the drawing history) to see the entire historical accumulated pool. These are very rough estimates without taking mathematical distribution into account:
By July 6 Numbers of applications that went through Express Entry:
| >1000 | 1572,00 |
| 950 - 999 | 1559,00 |
| 900 - 949 | 1561,00 |
| 850 - 899 | 1586,00 |
| 800 - 849 | 1381,00 |
| 750 - 799 | 1228,00 |
| 700 - 749 | 932,00 |
| 650 - 699 | 671,00 |
| 600 - 649 | 665,00 |
| 550 - 599 | 666,00 |
| 500 - 549 | 702,00 |
| 450 - 499 | 2450,00 |
| 400 - 449 | 8770,00 |
| 350 - 399 | 14597,00 |
| 300 - 349 | 12517,00 |
| 250 - 299 | 2247,00 |
| 200 - 249 | 585,00 |
| 150 - 199 | 225,00 |
| 100 -149 | 75,00 |
| <100 | 21,00 |
As you can see, total of eligible applications is way over 50K
For 2015 CIC has target of 47000 to 51000 under FSW. Does this number include only the principle applicants or their families also. If this number include family members then taking average 3 members per family the number if ITAs are reduced to one third of 47000. Any ideas?