Express Entry mid year report by CIC July 31 2015- Very Informative!

[Lahoria]

Few points worth noting.

1. The number of persons above 450 were 2181 as of July 6. 3097 got invited above 451 in next two draws. So in two weeks 900 people with score higher that 450 joined the pool. Per week 450 people with score higher than 450 joining the pool. I think that is a big number considering the job bank is not fully active and province nominations are just starting to come out. At this rate CIC is going to find 23000 people above 450 in an year. May be enough to meet the FSW target!!!

2. Only 655 application approved so far??? That is much lower than the impression I got by seeing the forum. Obviously it is not counting the PPRs as approvals but still the number is lower than what I thought.

3. 7528 have applied, 5835 in process, 655 approve. Means 1038 applications rejected. That is about 7 percent.

Good analysis. The rate of new profiles above 450 CRS in July is also consistent with the overall rate in the first six months of the year. 12,017 invitations in six months without dropping below 450 would result into a 24,000 invitations in the full year provided the rate of new profiles above 450 does not reduce. This means candidates like me in the range of 400 to 450 have to actively pursue for improving their score through IELTS or try for a provincial nomination.

 

[lazymathstudent]

Hi all,

I've created a Google Sheet doc to try to estimate when I might be invited with my 417 points. I hope it will be useful to you guys as well.

Link: https + :// + docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1XO6AIf4A_mz3NUqrSAcvJMGrF85ngiUKBkeeQJ4zFj8/edit?usp=sharing
* Make sure copy the 3 parts of the link properly. I had to write it like that as this forum doesn't allow for links to be posted ( ?? )
Make sure to create a new copy of that doc in order to be able to change the values (like cut-off point row).

Some assumptions:
2 rounds of invitations per month, 1500 invites each
About 3000 influx of new profiles in the pool (1500 per week) distributed following distribution on Jun 6th
I've interpolated the points distribution for 400-449 segment into 3 segments. I've distributed points there by having 2/3 of profiles in higher segment than the next lower one. I hope I've guessed it close.
Probably some other as well...

To me the estimation seems reasonable if CIC expects to fulfill it's plan for 2015. Also LMIAs and nominations are much harder to get this year (most nominations also require LMIAs which I don't really get). Looking at the last 2 rounds the estimation is a bit too optimistic as I guess inflow profiles averaged higher than expected with minimum point cut of 451 (the sheet would have it at about 440-445)

For my 417 points I expect an invite in the first round in October (small chance) or the 2nd round of October (reasonable chance). 400 point cut-off seems to be reached in late February - March next year. I expect a new round in the next couple of days, we'll see...

To clarify the data in the sheet: the big table values show how the pool grows not counting the size decrease when people get invited, cut-off sum row shows number of profile above a row number (now row 16, so 417 points and above), and "(with invitations)" row shows that sum decrease by invitations every round. So when that last row goes below zero (green cells) the chances are you will get invited in that round (depending how good the assumptions are of course).

Cheers!

 

[manidhatt]

Hi all,

I've created a Google Sheet doc to try to estimate when I might be invited with my 417 points. I hope it will be useful to you guys as well.

Link: https + :// + docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1XO6AIf4A_mz3NUqrSAcvJMGrF85ngiUKBkeeQJ4zFj8/edit?usp=sharing
* Make sure copy the 3 parts of the link properly. I had to write it like that as this forum doesn't allow for links to be posted ( ?? )
Make sure to create a new copy of that doc in order to be able to change the values (like cut-off point row).

Some assumptions:
2 rounds of invitations per month, 1500 invites each
About 3000 influx of new profiles in the pool (1500 per week) distributed following distribution on Jun 6th
I've interpolated the points distribution for 400-449 segment into 3 segments. I've distributed points there by having 2/3 of profiles in higher segment than the next lower one. I hope I've guessed it close.
Probably some other as well...

To me the estimation seems reasonable if CIC expects to fulfill it's plan for 2015. Also LMIAs and nominations are much harder to get this year (most nominations also require LMIAs which I don't really get). Looking at the last 2 rounds the estimation is a bit too optimistic as I guess inflow profiles averaged higher than expected with minimum point cut of 451 (the sheet would have it at about 440-445)

For my 417 points I expect an invite in the first round in October (small chance) or the 2nd round of October (reasonable chance). 400 point cut-off seems to be reached in late February - March next year. I expect a new round in the next couple of days, we'll see...

Cheers!

Job done is completely different than your username ;D

 

[munjal]

Hi all,

I've created a Google Sheet doc to try to estimate when I might be invited with my 417 points. I hope it will be useful to you guys as well.

Link: https + :// + docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1XO6AIf4A_mz3NUqrSAcvJMGrF85ngiUKBkeeQJ4zFj8/edit?usp=sharing
* Make sure copy the 3 parts of the link properly. I had to write it like that as this forum doesn't allow for links to be posted ( ?? )
Make sure to create a new copy of that doc in order to be able to change the values (like cut-off point row).

Some assumptions:
2 rounds of invitations per month, 1500 invites each
About 3000 influx of new profiles in the pool (1500 per week) distributed following distribution on Jun 6th
I've interpolated the points distribution for 400-449 segment into 3 segments. I've distributed points there by having 2/3 of profiles in higher segment than the next lower one. I hope I've guessed it close.
Probably some other as well...

To me the estimation seems reasonable if CIC expects to fulfill it's plan for 2015. Also LMIAs and nominations are much harder to get this year (most nominations also require LMIAs which I don't really get). Looking at the last 2 rounds the estimation is a bit too optimistic as I guess inflow profiles averaged higher than expected with minimum point cut of 451 (the sheet would have it at about 440-445)

For my 417 points I expect an invite in the first round in October (small chance) or the 2nd round of October (reasonable chance). 400 point cut-off seems to be reached in late February - March next year. I expect a new round in the next couple of days, we'll see...

Cheers!

I checked it.. but could not understand anything.
Pls can you explain.. what to see in it and how to see it?? ???

 

[lazymathstudent]

I checked it.. but could not understand anything.
Pls can you explain.. what to see in it and how to see it?? ???

I've put a short description in the post above:

To clarify the data in the sheet: the big table values show how the pool grows not counting the size decrease when people get invited, cut-off sum row shows number of profile above a row number (now row 16, so 417 points and above), and "(with invitations)" row shows that sum decrease by invitations every round. So when that last row goes below zero (green cells) the chances are you will get invited in that round (depending how good the assumptions are of course).

I'll try to improve it by calculating all data in the big table above so that it's more clear when I get a chance...

Cheers

 

[Jazzman]

Job done is completely different than your username ;D

Lol. Well, nice job lazymathstudent

 

[lazymathstudent]

Lol. Well, nice job lazymathstudent

Yeah, thanks.

I've improved the sheet a bit so hopefully now it is a bit more clear. If only we could get more detailed stats from CIC we could do more precise estimations... (more finely grained point distribution and distribution of points of new profiles in the last month would be great)

 

[Denis-ne]

According to the report, by July 6, there were only 2181 eligible applications in total with scores above 450 points. However, the number of ITAs was about 12000 by this time. Am I the only one who can't understand this? Can someone, please explain to us how's that possible? I suspect I don't really understand what numbers in this report really mean.

 

[Asivad Anac]

According to the report, by July 6, there were only 2181 eligible applications in total with scores above 450 points. However, the number of ITAs was about 12000 by this time. Am I the only one who can't understand this? Can someone, please explain to us how's that possible? I suspect I don't really understand what numbers in this report really mean.

The pool is dynamic. Anyone who gets an ITA exits the pool. So these 12000 people entered the pool anytime between 1st Jan and 6th July and exited after getting their ITAs leaving behind those 2181 eligible applicants (as on that date) with 450+ points.

 

[Denis-ne]

The pool is dynamic. Anyone who gets an ITA exits the pool. So these 12000 people entered the pool anytime between 1st Jan and 6th July and exited after getting their ITAs leaving behind those 2181 eligible applicants (as on that date) with 450+ points.

Yes, you are right. I just had to reread the report a couple of times. Wording there is pretty nebulous in some places.
I had to add these 12K invitations to the pool (according to the drawing history) to see the entire historical accumulated pool. These are very rough estimates without taking mathematical distribution into account:

By July 6 Numbers of applications that went through Express Entry:

>1000	1572,00
950 - 999	1559,00
900 - 949	1561,00
850 - 899	1586,00
800 - 849	1381,00
750 - 799	1228,00
700 - 749	932,00
650 - 699	671,00
600 - 649	665,00
550 - 599	666,00
500 - 549	702,00
450 - 499	2450,00
400 - 449	8770,00
350 - 399	14597,00
300 - 349	12517,00
250 - 299	2247,00
200 - 249	585,00
150 - 199	225,00
100 -149	75,00
<100	21,00

Total 54010


As you can see, total of eligible applications is way over 50K

 

[Ibyt]

Nobody knows what CIC plans to do next, if there is anyway you can improve your score, please do. I will do nothing only if I have have exhausted all possible ways I can improve my score. *just saying*

 

[Omosexy]

OOPNP will take about 2700 out of 8770 candidates in the range 400 - 449 and move them to the >1000 range. So, the number of candidates in former range will come down in the coming months.

 

[new_day]

I know right, the number of applications approved is really low compared to those in progress. Makes me think that the same officers handling the 2014 applications are also handling EE, so no need to panic, It will be everyone's turn soon.


My only advice for anyone below 450 is to improve their score the best way possible, it doesnt look like the scores will have a drastic drop any time soon. There are a lot of people in the 400-450 range, coupled with the fact that the pool has 1500 new applicants every week.

The points will go down if they want to meet their target and they will increase their ITA very soon -as mentioned on report.
seems over 350 can dream 8)

 

[new_day]

This is where the concentration of CRS is:

400 - 449 8,770
350 - 399 14,597
300 - 349 12,517

Even if the pool is growing by 1500 profiles per week, 70% chances are that they will end up in either one of the 3 above mentioned brackets.... Going forward we can expect to see more ITAs based in between 350-450 if CIC were to meet their Immigration Levels.

One thing I have noticed is people who have received the ITAs based on high scores or PNP or LMIAs will disagree with me as they think they are in an exclusive "My *censored word* doesn't Stink" club..

Well said (for last para) ;D

 

[sanjj]

For 2015 CIC has target of 47000 to 51000 under FSW. Does this number include only the principle applicants or their families also. If this number include family members then taking average 3 members per family the number if ITAs are reduced to one third of 47000. Any ideas?