thourb said:
Although I disagree that there is no need to bring in people for $13 an hour jobs (I've read articles of places such as Tim Horton's finding it difficult to attract Canadian workers), I'd say that the whole idea of EE was to bring in the brightest and best candidates from around the world. That aim of EE is entirely defeated when you consider that 16% of invited candidates last year were cooks and fast food supervisors.
It has been noted though by the government and they will be bringing in changes to fix this. I'm sure you've already seen this, but the following presentation shows what they've been telling stakeholders that they are proposing.
https://c.ymcdn.com/sites/www.cerc.ca/resource/resmgr/government_relations/Express_entry_national_stake.pdf
Note that they talk about a "significant reduction" in points awarded to candidates with offers of arranged employment, which will put "significant downward pressure" on the required CRS scores to be selected for an ITA. I read this to mean a very large drop. It wouldn't surprise me if they dropped it as low (or likely even lower than) 200 CRS points.
My thinking behind this is that even if only 200 CRS points were allocated to those with job offers, any candidates with 300 CRS points would still almost certainly get an immediate ITA. 300 CRS is not a difficult score at all to obtain (1 year course at college, 1 year work exp, aged under 30, CLB7 gets you over 300) - so all of these candidates with a job offer at McDonalds would still leapfrog someone with a PhD, 3 years foreign experience, aged under 30 and CLB10 (496 points). Seems to me that reducing the CRS awarded to job offer holders to anything more than 200 would be entirely redundant as just as many low-paid, low-skilled workers would be able to get ITAs as they currently do.
**Maths below possibly not entirely correct - approximations alert**
An interesting thing that I noticed from that presentation is that CIC seem to have been a bit more transparent with their statistics than they are elsewhere - by breaking down CRS scores held by people on March 28th 2016 into 10's rather than 50's. I can only approximate this as the numbers aren't given, only a bar chart without the underlying data - but I'll give it a shot. Bear in mind that the statstics for everyone over 470 CRS reset 5 days prior to that snapshot, as on 23rd March there was a draw with a 470 cut off. It's not an especially large sample on which to base my estimates, but it's about the best I can find. I'm also using the 2015 year end report to assist with my calculations.
In my estimate, it seems that on 28/03 approximately 0.1% of the entire pool had scores in the 270s. On 3rd January there were 60,042 candidates in the pool. Assuming that the numbers remain broadly stable throughout, That would mean that in that 5 day period, approximately 60 people entered the pool with a score in the 470s. The number of people in the 460's is broadly similar, but the number of people who entered the pool in the 480's appears to be around a quarter of the number. Let's be generous and assume half so perhaps only 30 people.
There have been no draws below 470 since April 20th and since then there have been 176 days. On that basis I can approximate that there are 1056 people currently backlogged in the 480s (likely between 480 and 481) and 2112 people with scores in the 470s. That analysis puts away any suggestions that there are thousands of people waiting in the 480s like some are suggesting on here. A very small percentage seem to get that high a score. The difficulty is (and always has been) that with relatively modestly sized draws where half of the draw goes to those with PNP or LMIA there are few places which can be allocated to those based solely on CRS. I'm optimistic that when they change the points given for LMIAs that we will see a reasonable drop in the required CRS score.
Yes you actually do have very good logic there. I just did some simulations and estimation in my head and I have come up with aroun 14k free nomination per year in the EE system. But then again I am missing LMIA datas to have better idea there. It might be even much less (those 14k is based on estimation that around 40k economics will go with the EE system and that 20k will go for provinces and 6k for LMIA. But if LMIA is for example 10 or 15K, then we will actually have less than 10k free nominants per year).
There is another part of this indurstry that not many people seem to see. And that is emigration from Canada.
Here we are talking about Canadians leaving Canada but mor importantly immigrants returning.
For one part we have those that are supposed to return (students and temporary workes), but we also have good portion of people that got PR but still left. and here we are talking about 30% overal.
So guessing that in the Family class these returns are much lower, that gives us higher return of the economic class.
And here is second part of this.
Ideally for Canada, you should come over there young with lot of savings and work there hard in positions that Canadians do not want. And then few years later after using up your Money and paying taxes you shall return back to your home country.
So while education business can be somehow estimated with the total revenue divided by % of foreign students, the immigration business is even bigger.
Lets assume that 60 000 people from economics migrant class will leave canada every year (30k for main applicant + 30k for accompanying family). They will spend like 15K CAD per person and on the top they will have some income around 30k CAD from which taxes are let say 10K.
So you will get 25K of Money per person that is 1500k millions of CAD. All those Money will go into economy or as the taxes surplus without much of a return for the people (they are young and healthy, so they will get little to no support Money from the social system and after leaving as they work there way too little they will not have any claims for further benefits after retirement).
This reality is very well known to all immigration officers. And it is also clear that the real surplus from immigration is much much lower than those 260-300k.
