Elections 2015
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rmust
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Yes you can vote. Go to the Elections Canada website for information on what documents are required for voting: http://www.elections.ca/home.aspx. You can also find where your voting station will be.
I am taking my oath on Oct 19th, and voting the very same day.
I am taking my oath on Oct 19th, and voting the very same day.
The polls open in a few hours.
Get out there buzz123 and cast your vote. ABC I hope.
While the margin is still very much up in the air, in less than 24 hours the Liberals will most likely be the clear winners of more ridings than any other party. Stephen Harper will, sooner or later, resign, first as Prime Minister, and then, eventually, as leader of the Conservative Party. He will then fade quickly from the Canadian political scene. For most Canadians he will be but a bad memory. More so, perhaps, among Conservatives, who may mostly remember him as the one who led the Party astray.
I already voted, the second day of advance voting, one among 3.6 million, as it turned out, who voted in the four days of advance voting. This was a truly impressive turnout. Elections Canada is anticipating more of the same, perhaps a lot, lot more, today. They say they are ready. I hope so.
For some reason the pundits are not giving the turnout factor much weight. I suppose they think it is a bit like sitting on the waterfront in Digby, Nova Scotia and watching the tide come in. When the tide rises it lifts all boats. I think that's the saying. I just do not think the swelling turnout is like the tide rising. I do not think that all parties are going to benefit from what is almost certainly going to be a huge turnout (compared to elections in the last decade or two). In fact, I am quite certain that the Conservatives are not going to benefit much, if any, from the turnout. For them it may even go the other way.
The so-called shy Tories may be too shy to show their identification at the polling stations.
Besides, among the older demographics, traditionally sure-to-vote, and to vote Conservative, Tony Turner's chorus of the somewhat elderly is singing a different song, the "Harperman, we want you gone, gone, gone" song. Who, like the Veterans Harper so callously betrayed, have good reason to cast their votes ABC (Anyone But Conservative).
Beyond that, sure, increased turnout means a less predictable outcome. It could be the Liberals by an astoundingly big margin. Or the NDP could totally surprise the pollsters. Either way, though, the Liberals are going to come out on top, by a little or a lot, and the Conservatives will be embarrassed.
And Conservatives will be embarrassed. Or at least they should feel embarrassed. But since Harper can rant and rail about a Liberal who has smoked a joint, some pot, but then campaign with his arm around the most famous crack-smoking drunk driving, under-the-influence mayor in the world, I am not sure embarrassment is in the Conservative portfolio. (Who thought a Canadian mayor could overshadow Washington, D.C.'s coke snorting mayor Marion Barry? Imagine an American presidential candidate with his arm around Marion Barry? No, that is unimaginable. But no need to imagine Harper with his arm around the Ford brothers, just two days before the election, since Doug Ford tweeted the photo for the whole world to see. Kind of reminds me of the youtube video and the dude seeing a double rainbow, when stoned, what does it mean? what does it mean? I just cannot get my head around this photo, Stephen Harper on the eve of a huge election, with his arm around the infamous Rob Ford. Why? What does it mean?)
Then what happens?
There has been a great deal of discussion about what happens when a party wins the most seats but does not have a majority.
Traditionally in Canada this is not the stuff of drama. The party who wins the most seats then, traditionally, forms what is called a minority government.
Despite my prediction above, given the so-called shy Tories, and inherent flaws in political polls, and whatever is this election's version of robo-call dirty tricks, it is possible that Harper's Conservatives could win the most seats. No chance of winning a majority. None at all. But they could, at least ostensibly, win the most ridings.
If they did, traditionally they would form a minority government. Stephen Harper has said, with some emphasis, that the party which wins the most ridings (or "seats") is the only party which can form a legitimate government.
Except Stephen Harper has not always been of that mind. In 2004 Harper sent a letter to the Governor General with the proposal that he be allowed to form a government if Paul Martin's Liberal minority government failed to get a confidence vote.
Harper's change of mind came in late 2008, when his rather recently elected minority government faced the impending doom of a global economic crisis and a commitment from the opposition parties to not only give a vote of no confidence at the first opportunity, but who had entered into an accord to establish a coalition to govern Canada. Indeed, the then leader of the Liberal Party, Stéphane Dion, had advised the Governor General Michaëlle Jean that he had the confidence of the Commons to form the government. (See, for example, 2008 story about the Liberal, NDP, and Bloc accord.)
Harper lambasted the opposition for being "undemocratic," despite the simple fact the opposition parties represented the majority of Canadians who voted in the 2008 election. And then Harper did the far more undemocratic thing, he prorogued Parliament, procedurally precluding a no confidence vote. Then the backroom wrangling began, Harper's operatives engaged in doing everything they could to cause the accord among the Liberals, NDP, and Bloc to breakdown. It was not until after Harper was confident the coalition was broken that he reconvened Parliament. He then hung onto his minority government for two more years, until he was found to be in Contempt of Parliament in the spring of 2011.
Back to the present, plus some, October 20, 2015:
All the indicators, the polls, the pollsters, the pundits, and most of politicians themselves (other than the party leaders), are all confident the outcome will not result in a majority government for any party. No party will win 170 seats. It does not seem likely any party will come even close to winning 170.
No party is going to be able to form a government without the support of at least one of the other major parties.
Again, traditionally that would be the party which wins the most seats, which has the most members in the new Parliament.
My prediction is that Trudeau's Liberals will win at least ten more seats than any other party, that Stephen Harper will then resign from being Prime Minister, and then the current Governor General, David Johnston, will offer Justin Trudeau an opportunity to form the government. A vote of confidence after the Speech from the Throne, by Trudeau, will allow the Liberals to form and run a minority government. For how long, who knows.
That's the easy scenario. But if that is not the scenario which unfolds in the next 24 hours or so, there could be some high drama playing out on Parliament Hill.
For example, what happens if Harper's Conservatives were to win more seats, whether by one or ten, perhaps even more (but less than a majority)? Both leaders of the major opposition parties have avowed to not allow Harper to form the next government. "No way in hell." Muclair has shouted. "I will not support, I will not allow Harper to form the next government," Trudeau has stated multiple times in various ways.
To be clear, not only will Stephen Harper still be Prime Minister on Tuesday morning, he will continue to be the Prime Minister until he either resigns or there is a vote of no confidence against him. The big question looming over this election is what will Harper do if the Conservatives win the most seats, recognizing that he will not be able to forthwith give a speech from the throne and expect a vote of confidence. That is not going to happen. Not in the short term.
Could he wait the opposition parties out? Parliament is not in session so it cannot be prorogued. All Harper can do is delay reconvening Parliament. But the government must function in the meantime, and is dependent on warrants from the Governor General to continue paying the bills. Harper cannot delay reconvening Parliament for too long. But what if he does? What constitutional powers does the Governor General have to force Harper to face a confidence vote or resign? Technically, depending on the source, Harper could delay reconvening Parliament until at least February, some sources saying next June. February seems beyond the possible to me, but I do not really know. Several weeks or a couple months seems within the range of possible to me.
The question is whether there is any possibility at all for Harper to wrangle support in the backrooms this time around. That seems unlikely. Will Harper nonetheless attempt to swim against the tide, and pursue this or that maneuver in an effort to form a minority government? I do not know. I hope it does not come to that. I doubt it will come to that.
I think the Liberals will win the most seats, and by a big enough margin there will no effort to block them from forming a minority government.
That said, the Liberals will need the support of the NDP (or the Conservatives) in order to form a minority government. That hardly seems automatic. The Conservatives probably have the most to gain from a quick turn around to another election, probably with a new leader. But the NDP might feel shorted in how this election unfolded and ready to take another shot. My guess is that would be risky, that Canadians might respond to an unwelcome election by giving the Liberals a majority. The Conservatives will probably have little to lose. Their base constituency is hard and fast and they vote. The NDP is at risk for losing the most. Muclair seems to be someone inclined to take such risks. And he does not seem predisposed to cooperating with Trudeau.
It could get messy in a big hurry.
There is also the scenario where the Liberals win the most seats, but only by a tiny margin over the Conservatives. Again, Stephen Harper continues to be the Prime Minister until he resigns or gets a vote of no confidence. Might Harper consider a delay in convening Parliament, if the Conservatives fall just a couple seats short of having the most, in order to attempt marshalling support for him to form a minority government? The prospect of success seems so utterly implausible there is no reason why Harper should even attempt this. But who knows? It is hard to see Harper as one willing to go gently.
Mostly, though, I'm thinking it will be time for Tony Turner to change the lyrics to his song, to sing how Harperman is indeed gone, gone, gone.
And thus, hopefully, scientists may again sing.
Get out there buzz123 and cast your vote. ABC I hope.
While the margin is still very much up in the air, in less than 24 hours the Liberals will most likely be the clear winners of more ridings than any other party. Stephen Harper will, sooner or later, resign, first as Prime Minister, and then, eventually, as leader of the Conservative Party. He will then fade quickly from the Canadian political scene. For most Canadians he will be but a bad memory. More so, perhaps, among Conservatives, who may mostly remember him as the one who led the Party astray.
I already voted, the second day of advance voting, one among 3.6 million, as it turned out, who voted in the four days of advance voting. This was a truly impressive turnout. Elections Canada is anticipating more of the same, perhaps a lot, lot more, today. They say they are ready. I hope so.
For some reason the pundits are not giving the turnout factor much weight. I suppose they think it is a bit like sitting on the waterfront in Digby, Nova Scotia and watching the tide come in. When the tide rises it lifts all boats. I think that's the saying. I just do not think the swelling turnout is like the tide rising. I do not think that all parties are going to benefit from what is almost certainly going to be a huge turnout (compared to elections in the last decade or two). In fact, I am quite certain that the Conservatives are not going to benefit much, if any, from the turnout. For them it may even go the other way.
The so-called shy Tories may be too shy to show their identification at the polling stations.
Besides, among the older demographics, traditionally sure-to-vote, and to vote Conservative, Tony Turner's chorus of the somewhat elderly is singing a different song, the "Harperman, we want you gone, gone, gone" song. Who, like the Veterans Harper so callously betrayed, have good reason to cast their votes ABC (Anyone But Conservative).
Beyond that, sure, increased turnout means a less predictable outcome. It could be the Liberals by an astoundingly big margin. Or the NDP could totally surprise the pollsters. Either way, though, the Liberals are going to come out on top, by a little or a lot, and the Conservatives will be embarrassed.
And Conservatives will be embarrassed. Or at least they should feel embarrassed. But since Harper can rant and rail about a Liberal who has smoked a joint, some pot, but then campaign with his arm around the most famous crack-smoking drunk driving, under-the-influence mayor in the world, I am not sure embarrassment is in the Conservative portfolio. (Who thought a Canadian mayor could overshadow Washington, D.C.'s coke snorting mayor Marion Barry? Imagine an American presidential candidate with his arm around Marion Barry? No, that is unimaginable. But no need to imagine Harper with his arm around the Ford brothers, just two days before the election, since Doug Ford tweeted the photo for the whole world to see. Kind of reminds me of the youtube video and the dude seeing a double rainbow, when stoned, what does it mean? what does it mean? I just cannot get my head around this photo, Stephen Harper on the eve of a huge election, with his arm around the infamous Rob Ford. Why? What does it mean?)
Then what happens?
There has been a great deal of discussion about what happens when a party wins the most seats but does not have a majority.
Traditionally in Canada this is not the stuff of drama. The party who wins the most seats then, traditionally, forms what is called a minority government.
Despite my prediction above, given the so-called shy Tories, and inherent flaws in political polls, and whatever is this election's version of robo-call dirty tricks, it is possible that Harper's Conservatives could win the most seats. No chance of winning a majority. None at all. But they could, at least ostensibly, win the most ridings.
If they did, traditionally they would form a minority government. Stephen Harper has said, with some emphasis, that the party which wins the most ridings (or "seats") is the only party which can form a legitimate government.
Except Stephen Harper has not always been of that mind. In 2004 Harper sent a letter to the Governor General with the proposal that he be allowed to form a government if Paul Martin's Liberal minority government failed to get a confidence vote.
Harper's change of mind came in late 2008, when his rather recently elected minority government faced the impending doom of a global economic crisis and a commitment from the opposition parties to not only give a vote of no confidence at the first opportunity, but who had entered into an accord to establish a coalition to govern Canada. Indeed, the then leader of the Liberal Party, Stéphane Dion, had advised the Governor General Michaëlle Jean that he had the confidence of the Commons to form the government. (See, for example, 2008 story about the Liberal, NDP, and Bloc accord.)
Harper lambasted the opposition for being "undemocratic," despite the simple fact the opposition parties represented the majority of Canadians who voted in the 2008 election. And then Harper did the far more undemocratic thing, he prorogued Parliament, procedurally precluding a no confidence vote. Then the backroom wrangling began, Harper's operatives engaged in doing everything they could to cause the accord among the Liberals, NDP, and Bloc to breakdown. It was not until after Harper was confident the coalition was broken that he reconvened Parliament. He then hung onto his minority government for two more years, until he was found to be in Contempt of Parliament in the spring of 2011.
Back to the present, plus some, October 20, 2015:
All the indicators, the polls, the pollsters, the pundits, and most of politicians themselves (other than the party leaders), are all confident the outcome will not result in a majority government for any party. No party will win 170 seats. It does not seem likely any party will come even close to winning 170.
No party is going to be able to form a government without the support of at least one of the other major parties.
Again, traditionally that would be the party which wins the most seats, which has the most members in the new Parliament.
My prediction is that Trudeau's Liberals will win at least ten more seats than any other party, that Stephen Harper will then resign from being Prime Minister, and then the current Governor General, David Johnston, will offer Justin Trudeau an opportunity to form the government. A vote of confidence after the Speech from the Throne, by Trudeau, will allow the Liberals to form and run a minority government. For how long, who knows.
That's the easy scenario. But if that is not the scenario which unfolds in the next 24 hours or so, there could be some high drama playing out on Parliament Hill.
For example, what happens if Harper's Conservatives were to win more seats, whether by one or ten, perhaps even more (but less than a majority)? Both leaders of the major opposition parties have avowed to not allow Harper to form the next government. "No way in hell." Muclair has shouted. "I will not support, I will not allow Harper to form the next government," Trudeau has stated multiple times in various ways.
To be clear, not only will Stephen Harper still be Prime Minister on Tuesday morning, he will continue to be the Prime Minister until he either resigns or there is a vote of no confidence against him. The big question looming over this election is what will Harper do if the Conservatives win the most seats, recognizing that he will not be able to forthwith give a speech from the throne and expect a vote of confidence. That is not going to happen. Not in the short term.
Could he wait the opposition parties out? Parliament is not in session so it cannot be prorogued. All Harper can do is delay reconvening Parliament. But the government must function in the meantime, and is dependent on warrants from the Governor General to continue paying the bills. Harper cannot delay reconvening Parliament for too long. But what if he does? What constitutional powers does the Governor General have to force Harper to face a confidence vote or resign? Technically, depending on the source, Harper could delay reconvening Parliament until at least February, some sources saying next June. February seems beyond the possible to me, but I do not really know. Several weeks or a couple months seems within the range of possible to me.
The question is whether there is any possibility at all for Harper to wrangle support in the backrooms this time around. That seems unlikely. Will Harper nonetheless attempt to swim against the tide, and pursue this or that maneuver in an effort to form a minority government? I do not know. I hope it does not come to that. I doubt it will come to that.
I think the Liberals will win the most seats, and by a big enough margin there will no effort to block them from forming a minority government.
That said, the Liberals will need the support of the NDP (or the Conservatives) in order to form a minority government. That hardly seems automatic. The Conservatives probably have the most to gain from a quick turn around to another election, probably with a new leader. But the NDP might feel shorted in how this election unfolded and ready to take another shot. My guess is that would be risky, that Canadians might respond to an unwelcome election by giving the Liberals a majority. The Conservatives will probably have little to lose. Their base constituency is hard and fast and they vote. The NDP is at risk for losing the most. Muclair seems to be someone inclined to take such risks. And he does not seem predisposed to cooperating with Trudeau.
It could get messy in a big hurry.
There is also the scenario where the Liberals win the most seats, but only by a tiny margin over the Conservatives. Again, Stephen Harper continues to be the Prime Minister until he resigns or gets a vote of no confidence. Might Harper consider a delay in convening Parliament, if the Conservatives fall just a couple seats short of having the most, in order to attempt marshalling support for him to form a minority government? The prospect of success seems so utterly implausible there is no reason why Harper should even attempt this. But who knows? It is hard to see Harper as one willing to go gently.
Mostly, though, I'm thinking it will be time for Tony Turner to change the lyrics to his song, to sing how Harperman is indeed gone, gone, gone.
And thus, hopefully, scientists may again sing.
Wow. Really, wow. A majority, a resounding majority.
The post-election analysis begins.
Why and how did the pollsters miss it by so much? Or, simply WTF happened? The simple and obvious and most overriding thing that happened is that Canadians came out and voted, exercised their franchise, and in one way or another sang Tony Turner's song, "Harperman, it's time for you to go . . . we want you gone, gone gone, you and your pawn, pawn, pawns, no more Cons, Cons, Cons . . . "
Democracy is alive and well in Canada. The king of secrecy is gone, not just from the Prime Minister's office, but from the leadership of the Conservative Party as well. It was long overdue.
Immigration and citizenship issues are probably not going to be on the front burners for the new government. There are so many huge issues confronting Canada, it will be difficult to prioritize them. A majority helps. I believe Justin Trudeau when he says he will listen to each and every member of Parliament, all 338 elected members of Parliament (Harper did not listen to even the Conservative members of Parliament; almost all of his legislation was drafted by an inner circle with minimal imput from even Conservative MPs let alone stakeholders). I truly hope Trudeau will follow through and actually make a concerted effort to govern for ALL Canadians, not just the Liberals, not just the progressives.
This should be an exciting time for immigrants and those who are on the cusp of becoming a citizen of this great country. This election represents what democracy is about, including in particular its rejection of the undemocratic governing of Stephen Harper.
I was worried. My sense is that millions of Canadians shared my worry. Part of why the Liberals obtained a big majority is probably due in large part to strategic voting, millions of Canadians coming out to vote for the Party most likely to defeat the Harper Conservatives.
The honeymoon will be over soon enough, and the criticisms will begin even before the new government has a chance to accomplish much at all. But that is OK. That is what democracy is about. In the meantime, the rule of law is safe. Canada will resume embracing diversity. Sure, many of us will disagree about this or that policy or agenda, but the core values of Canada have been re-affirmed tonight, this morning, this time to celebrate what a great country Canada is and to look forward to contributing to Canada becoming all that it can become. A good night to be alive.
Moreover, my sense is that scientists will once again be allowed to sing.
The post-election analysis begins.
Why and how did the pollsters miss it by so much? Or, simply WTF happened? The simple and obvious and most overriding thing that happened is that Canadians came out and voted, exercised their franchise, and in one way or another sang Tony Turner's song, "Harperman, it's time for you to go . . . we want you gone, gone gone, you and your pawn, pawn, pawns, no more Cons, Cons, Cons . . . "
Democracy is alive and well in Canada. The king of secrecy is gone, not just from the Prime Minister's office, but from the leadership of the Conservative Party as well. It was long overdue.
Immigration and citizenship issues are probably not going to be on the front burners for the new government. There are so many huge issues confronting Canada, it will be difficult to prioritize them. A majority helps. I believe Justin Trudeau when he says he will listen to each and every member of Parliament, all 338 elected members of Parliament (Harper did not listen to even the Conservative members of Parliament; almost all of his legislation was drafted by an inner circle with minimal imput from even Conservative MPs let alone stakeholders). I truly hope Trudeau will follow through and actually make a concerted effort to govern for ALL Canadians, not just the Liberals, not just the progressives.
This should be an exciting time for immigrants and those who are on the cusp of becoming a citizen of this great country. This election represents what democracy is about, including in particular its rejection of the undemocratic governing of Stephen Harper.
I was worried. My sense is that millions of Canadians shared my worry. Part of why the Liberals obtained a big majority is probably due in large part to strategic voting, millions of Canadians coming out to vote for the Party most likely to defeat the Harper Conservatives.
The honeymoon will be over soon enough, and the criticisms will begin even before the new government has a chance to accomplish much at all. But that is OK. That is what democracy is about. In the meantime, the rule of law is safe. Canada will resume embracing diversity. Sure, many of us will disagree about this or that policy or agenda, but the core values of Canada have been re-affirmed tonight, this morning, this time to celebrate what a great country Canada is and to look forward to contributing to Canada becoming all that it can become. A good night to be alive.
Moreover, my sense is that scientists will once again be allowed to sing.
screech339
VIP Member
- Apr 2, 2013
- 552
- Category........
- Visa Office......
- Vegreville
- Job Offer........
- Pre-Assessed..
- App. Filed.......
- 14-08-2012
- AOR Received.
- 20-11-2012
- Med's Done....
- 18-07-2012
- Interview........
- 17-06-2013
- LANDED..........
- 17-06-2013
Congrats to the Liberal Government on winning their mandate.dpenabill said:
The Conservatives simply lost on account of Stephen Harper alone. Be to be honest, had Stephen left 4 years ago and allowed someone to take over leadership, the conservatives may probably still win.
BTW: Trudeau won the election with 39.5%. That means 60.5% didn't vote for him. Does Trudeau have a right to majority government with 39.5% of votes? According to your past posts, if Stephen Harper doesn't have the right to majority government with 37.6%, neither does Trudeau. But that's okay because it's Trudeau, Right?
That's the way democracy works. The people spoke and voted. Life goes on.