Effective date still UNKNOWN
May 1st is a possibility, but does not seem a likely one. This is just a guess.
July 1st still seems to be the oddsmakers' favourite. We really do not know.
My guess continues to be June 1st. Just one more guess among many.
August 1st is another possibility, probably a long shot. More guessing and betting.
And of course there are more than a few still betting on June 19th. No one in my office pool has picked up this bet as yet.
And of course one could bet on just about any other day between May 1st and . . . well, days in August are a very, very long shot, but I suppose even September 1st is, possibly, an outside bet someone might make.
What to do if on-the-cusp:
Some buffer is definitely the preferable choice, if there is time to add some days to the calculation.
We do not know for sure, but it seems that last minute shortfall applications have a very poor prognosis, whether the applicant is intentionally applying with a shortfall to beat the cutoff and avoid a longer wait (and accurately reporting all absences), or the applicant made an error in reporting absences which results in losing days and falling short of 1095 days APP (days actually physically present).
Applicants who have kept perfect records for themselves, not relying on passport stamps, CBSA travel history, or other sources, can be more confident about applying with minimal or virtually no buffer. Nonetheless, some buffer is probably a good idea, again if there is time.
For those on-the-cusp and planning to apply if the window remains open long enough: get prepared sooner rather than later. Do rough drafts of the application and the residency calculation. Be sure to get all necessary documentation in order, including proof of language and if necessary school records, and so on. Do the homework and be ready. Be meticulous. We have seen a number of people recently report returned applications because they failed to sign the residency calculation. Be conscientious, careful, and do it right, be complete . . . speaking of which:
Necessity for application to be complete:
An incomplete application is not considered "made" and thus will not beat the cutoff. Thus, if an application is returned to the applicant, the application will not be "made" until whatever was lacking is fixed and the application is resubmitted.
I am not certain that the application actually has to be received by CIC before the date the new provisions come into force, but that seems to be the consensus and I think that is indeed what is likely. Thus, mailings made a day or two before probably will not make it, and those applicants will have to meet the revised requirements.
Proof of language is now a mandatory part of the application, so if the proof of language is not sufficient, the application will be incomplete and will be returned to the applicant. That will not constitute a "made" application.
At this juncture, as the cut-off date is imminent, whatever date it turns out to be, incomplete applications are at high risk for not being sent back to the applicant in time for the applicant to get it resubmitted before the cutoff.
Consider waiting:
Hard pill to swallow for some, but rushed applications are always at higher risk for mistakes, omissions, or something else a little or a lot awry. My suspicion is that applications made in the last three months before the cutoff are likely to get at least a little more scrutiny, and perhaps subject to a somewhat stricter assessment.
For some, waiting another year probably looms with substantial if not major inconvenience, perhaps even resulting in lost career opportunities.
For anyone who already has a passport from a visa-exempt country, waiting probably is the more prudent course to follow.
For those who are in a rush because they have plans abroad:
CIC is geared up to root out and, if possible, to preclude grants of citizenship for applicants who, as has been said, apply-on-the-way-to-the-airport. Merely technically meeting the qualifications can make for a very tough case, and CIC is likely to make it as tough as it can. Expect little or no sympathy from the Federal Courts or the Canadian public.
