Draw Forecast from 36th to the end of 2016, >GUESS> calculations

[alexliu]

Calculations:

1. Immigration target level plan cuts off from 181,300 to 160,600 that mean it drops 11% for economic class. (EE is in economic class)
2. According to Express Entry Year-End Report 2015, the invitation sent from EE was 31,063.
3. If we applies this 11% average to all the classes in Economic Class, then that's say this year overall invitations could be 31063 * (1 - 11%) ~ 27646
4. From now till the end of year, if EE draws keep every 2 weeks that means it could have another 14-15 draws by the end of this year.
5. Invitations sent since the beginning of this year is : 13761, then base on the calculation above, that means invitation left could be around 27646 - 13761 = 13885
6. Average number of invitation could be 13885 / 15(draws) ~ 925.

Could be conclusion?

If CIC wants to finish the target for 2016, they either have to reduce the frequency or increase invitations they send each draw but not a lot.

 

[tormentor]

Re: Draw Forecast from 36th to the end of 2016, Facts, statistics and calculations

The quota is based on the number of visas, and not on the number of invitations. Some ITAs later on in 2016 would be from 2017 quota.

 

[tfeddy2012]

Re: Draw Forecast from 36th to the end of 2016, Facts, statistics and calculations

Calculations:

1. Immigration target level plan cuts off from 181,300 to 160,600 that mean it drops 11% for economic class. (EE is in economic class)
2. According to Express Entry Year-End Report 2015, the invitation sent from EE was 31,063.
3. If we applies this 11% average to all the classes in Economic Class, then that's say this year overall invitations could be 31063 * (1 - 11%) ~ 27646
4. From now till the end of year, if EE draws keep every 2 weeks that means it could have another 14-15 draws by the end of this year.
5. Invitations sent since the beginning of this year is : 13761, then base on the calculation above, that means invitation left could be around 27646 - 13761 = 13885
6. Average number of invitation could be 13885 / 15(draws) ~ 925.

Could be conclusion?

If CIC wants to finish the target for 2016, they either have to reduce the frequency or increase invitations they send each draw but not a lot.

I would have loved it, if you can just tell me the next exact figure in the next draw from this long statistics SIR/MA

 

[alexliu]

Re: Draw Forecast from 36th to the end of 2016, Facts, statistics and calculations

I would have loved it, if you can just tell me the next exact figure in the next draw from this long statistics SIR/MA

That is what I can't help. LOL

 

[axlh17]

Re: Draw Forecast from 36th to the end of 2016, Facts, statistics and calculations

I think the target quota includes dependents. So one invite might have 2~3 dependents, since family would apply with the main applicant and doesn't get a separate invite. If that's correct you need to divide invites by ~2.

 

[Chiragappa]

Re: Draw Forecast from 36th to the end of 2016, Facts, statistics and calculations

Get some life... Ya?

 

[LokiJr01]

I love how people quantify something so uncertain

 

[ldrbjp]

Next Draw - CRS:480; # of ITAs:820

 

[alexliu]

I love how people quantify something so uncertain

LOL, just guess.

 

[dell2]

Oh boy !!!

 

[Encore]

Looks like the word "uncertainty" does not mean anything around here.....
Welldone for the long analysis with variables either picked from the air or many others totally ignored.