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Dear Asivad, could u pls share a little prediction?

M

mysunshine

Star Member
Jan 23, 2016
106
1
If the draws go twice per month instead of 3 draws per month(everyone wishes), what the trend would be?
I know it is hard to say because we don't know how many people with crs 450+ Enter the pool every week.
 
It's simple.... no matter what trend you trying to find or making.
CIC have to have 24 Draws in a year. Now how many monthly or weekly can't be predicted. 1 thing for sure there will be 24 draws in 2016 all together.
 
mysunshine said:
If the draws go twice per month instead of 3 draws per month(everyone wishes), what the trend would be?
I know it is hard to say because we don't know how many people with crs 450+ Enter the pool every week.
Click to expand...
I know i am not Asivad but thought to share my view :-)

looking at the rate at which PNP are given and if there will be two draw every month - chances of score going below 450 seems difficult. As you rightly said everyone wants at least 3 draws a month because that is the only way where the cutoff can go below 450 (at least in present scenario).... BUT no one can predict CIC so lets hope for the best ....
 
N0M0re said:
It's simple.... no matter what trend you trying to find or making.
CIC have to have 24 Draws in a year. Now how many monthly or weekly can't be predicted. 1 thing for sure there will be 24 draws in 2016 all together.
Click to expand...

Source for this info?
 
Queries said:
I know i am not Asivad but thought to share my view :-)

looking at the rate at which PNP are given and if there will be two draw every month - chances of score going below 450 seems difficult. As you rightly said everyone wants at least 3 draws a month because that is the only way where the cutoff can go below 450 (at least in present scenario).... BUT no one can predict CIC so lets hope for the best ....
Click to expand...

Agree.

Expect higher PN action this year compared to 2015. That would naturally mean more applicants with 600+ score in 2016 than in 2015 which would keep the cutoff higher. The good news though is that IRCC has to increase the draw size or frequency - they cannot avoid this unless they drastically reset their immigration targets for 2016. And if either the draw size or frequency (or both) increase, the cutoff will fall.

Having said that, I don't expect the cutoff to fall sharply in the initial period. It might hover close to 445 or so. Eventually it might go down below 440 but I don't expect it to ever fall below 430.
 
Queries said:
I know i am not Asivad but thought to share my view :-)

looking at the rate at which PNP are given and if there will be two draw every month - chances of score going below 450 seems difficult. As you rightly said everyone wants at least 3 draws a month because that is the only way where the cutoff can go below 450 (at least in present scenario).... BUT no one can predict CIC so lets hope for the best ....
Click to expand...

Thank you for sharing your ideas, good information! good luck for all of us!
 
Asivad Anac said:
Agree.

Expect higher PN action this year compared to 2015. That would naturally mean more applicants with 600+ score in 2016 than in 2015 which would keep the cutoff higher. The good news though is that IRCC has to increase the draw size or frequency - they cannot avoid this unless they drastically reset their immigration targets for 2016. And if either the draw size or frequency (or both) increase, the cutoff will fall.

Having said that, I don't expect the cutoff to fall sharply in the initial period. It might hover close to 445 or so. Eventually it might go down below 440 but I don't expect it to ever fall below 430.
Click to expand...

Thank you. Do you think i might have a chance before april? I am @ 451
 
mysunshine said:
Thank you. Do you think i might have a chance before april? I am @ 451
Click to expand...

Sure!

If they repeat Jan trend and have 3 draws of ~1500 applicants each in Feb, you'll have an ITA before Feb is over.
 
Asivad Anac said:
Sure!

If they repeat Jan trend and have 3 draws of ~1500 applicants each in Feb, you'll have an ITA before Feb is over.
Click to expand...

Great to hear this! But what if they only do 2 draws per month? When can I expect ita to come? :(
 
mysunshine said:
Great to hear this! But what if they only do 2 draws per month? When can I expect ita to come? :(
Click to expand...

Even then, it could come through in 2-3 months.
 
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