Dear Asivad, could u pls share a little prediction?

[mysunshine]

If the draws go twice per month instead of 3 draws per month(everyone wishes), what the trend would be?
I know it is hard to say because we don't know how many people with crs 450+ Enter the pool every week.

 

[N0M0re]

It's simple.... no matter what trend you trying to find or making.
CIC have to have 24 Draws in a year. Now how many monthly or weekly can't be predicted. 1 thing for sure there will be 24 draws in 2016 all together.

 

[Queries]

If the draws go twice per month instead of 3 draws per month(everyone wishes), what the trend would be?
I know it is hard to say because we don't know how many people with crs 450+ Enter the pool every week.

I know i am not Asivad but thought to share my view

looking at the rate at which PNP are given and if there will be two draw every month - chances of score going below 450 seems difficult. As you rightly said everyone wants at least 3 draws a month because that is the only way where the cutoff can go below 450 (at least in present scenario).... BUT no one can predict CIC so lets hope for the best ....

 

[Asivad Anac]

It's simple.... no matter what trend you trying to find or making.
CIC have to have 24 Draws in a year. Now how many monthly or weekly can't be predicted. 1 thing for sure there will be 24 draws in 2016 all together.

Source for this info?

 

[Asivad Anac]

I know i am not Asivad but thought to share my view

looking at the rate at which PNP are given and if there will be two draw every month - chances of score going below 450 seems difficult. As you rightly said everyone wants at least 3 draws a month because that is the only way where the cutoff can go below 450 (at least in present scenario).... BUT no one can predict CIC so lets hope for the best ....

Agree.

Expect higher PN action this year compared to 2015. That would naturally mean more applicants with 600+ score in 2016 than in 2015 which would keep the cutoff higher. The good news though is that IRCC has to increase the draw size or frequency - they cannot avoid this unless they drastically reset their immigration targets for 2016. And if either the draw size or frequency (or both) increase, the cutoff will fall.

Having said that, I don't expect the cutoff to fall sharply in the initial period. It might hover close to 445 or so. Eventually it might go down below 440 but I don't expect it to ever fall below 430.

 

[mysunshine]

I know i am not Asivad but thought to share my view

looking at the rate at which PNP are given and if there will be two draw every month - chances of score going below 450 seems difficult. As you rightly said everyone wants at least 3 draws a month because that is the only way where the cutoff can go below 450 (at least in present scenario).... BUT no one can predict CIC so lets hope for the best ....

Thank you for sharing your ideas, good information! good luck for all of us!

 

[mysunshine]

Agree.

Expect higher PN action this year compared to 2015. That would naturally mean more applicants with 600+ score in 2016 than in 2015 which would keep the cutoff higher. The good news though is that IRCC has to increase the draw size or frequency - they cannot avoid this unless they drastically reset their immigration targets for 2016. And if either the draw size or frequency (or both) increase, the cutoff will fall.

Having said that, I don't expect the cutoff to fall sharply in the initial period. It might hover close to 445 or so. Eventually it might go down below 440 but I don't expect it to ever fall below 430.

Thank you. Do you think i might have a chance before april? I am @ 451

 

[Asivad Anac]

Thank you. Do you think i might have a chance before april? I am @ 451

Sure!

If they repeat Jan trend and have 3 draws of ~1500 applicants each in Feb, you'll have an ITA before Feb is over.

 

[mysunshine]

Sure!

If they repeat Jan trend and have 3 draws of ~1500 applicants each in Feb, you'll have an ITA before Feb is over.

Great to hear this! But what if they only do 2 draws per month? When can I expect ita to come?

 

[Asivad Anac]

Great to hear this! But what if they only do 2 draws per month? When can I expect ita to come?

Even then, it could come through in 2-3 months.