Counting started for 12,000 cap

[MenicMonday]

^But those applications sent prior to resetting of the cap are counted with the ~2100, isn't it? So this number is not just from May 1 but includes those submitted prior to that date but were only counted towards the new cap.

 

[zareef]

^But those applications sent prior to resetting of the cap are counted with the ~2100, isn't it? So this number is not just from May 1 but includes those submitted prior to that date but were only counted towards the new cap.

No. It's clearly (latest update) 2,486 / 8,000 in CIC website. Does not include old submissions before resetting caps.

EDIT: I see your point. But then again, would the following apps count towards the new cap or old cap: those that were sent (mailed) before May 1 but for which the AOR were sent after May 1. I wonder.

 

[MenicMonday]

^Why would the old cap still matter? The website mentions applications counted against the cap, which was reset on May 1. Not necessarily applications submitted as of that date.
For all we know, those sent Mar/Apr but were issued an AOR after May will most likely count against the new cap.
I may be wrong though.

 

[zareef]

For all we know, those sent Mar/Apr but were issued an AOR after May will most likely count against the new cap.
I may be wrong though.

Have to agree with you, but we may never know.

 

[MenicMonday]

BTW, if one sends an application not knowing that the cap is filled up, they just return the package right?

 

[zareef]

BTW, if one sends an application not knowing that the cap is filled up, they just return the package right?

Yes, it gets returned pretty quickly, because they won't check to see if it's complete.

 

[mapletrunk]

This is how I forecast whether it will still fall within the overall cap:

Calculation was based on AORs.

Average AORs issued per week = 300

Remaining as of August 19th = 8000-2486 = 5514

Consider the number of weeks before AOR is issued. The current ave is 6 to 8 weeks. Say, 7 weeks.

For example, application to be submitted middle of November. So that's 12 weeks more to go.

Number of weeks from August 19th till issuance of AOR = 12+7= 19

Number of apps processed = 19*300 = 5700

5700 > 5514, not good, but don't take it. this is only a forecast.

 

[zareef]

This is how I forecast whether it will still fall within the overall cap:

Calculation was based on AORs.

Average AORs issued per week = 300

Remaining as of August 19th = 8000-2486 = 5514

Consider the number of weeks before AOR is issued. The current ave is 6 to 8 weeks. Say, 7 weeks.

For example, application to be submitted middle of November. So that's 12 weeks more to go.

Number of weeks from August 19th till issuance of AOR = 12+7= 19

Number of apps processed = 19*300 = 5700

5700 > 5514, not good, but don't take it. this is only a forecast.

Lol, more forecasts. So we both agree mid-November might be too late to apply.

Anyways, let's not discourage potential applicants. Even CIC itself would not be able to come up with an accurate forecast - so there's still hope!

 

[LPS]

^But those applications sent prior to resetting of the cap are counted with the ~2100, isn't it? So this number is not just from May 1 but includes those submitted prior to that date but were only counted towards the new cap.

The current cap applies only to applications received by CIO on or after May 1 - http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/resources/manuals/bulletins/2014/ob572.asp

"Received" means delivered to CIO.

 

[ABS_1382]

Numbers updated today - 2,649 / 8,000 (25/8/2014)

 

[anjushri]

This is how I forecast whether it will still fall within the overall cap:

Calculation was based on AORs.

Average AORs issued per week = 300

Remaining as of August 19th = 8000-2486 = 5514

Consider the number of weeks before AOR is issued. The current ave is 6 to 8 weeks. Say, 7 weeks.

For example, application to be submitted middle of November. So that's 12 weeks more to go.

Number of weeks from August 19th till issuance of AOR = 12+7= 19

Number of apps processed = 19*300 = 5700

5700 > 5514, not good, but don't take it. this is only a forecast.

It has been 15 weeks since the counting started and the count is still at ~2600 making it ~175/week.
Accounting for the 7 week backlog and even if the pace increases to 200/week we can assume that Applicants in Jan 2015 will be safe as well.
More forecasts I know, but as everyone points out we never know how things go with CIC 5 months down the line.

 

[jasminep]

Is the total cap 12000 (As announced in Nov 2013) or 8000 (As announced in may 2014) ?

 

[ABS_1382]

Dear, The cap is 8000 starting 1st May 2014.

The subject of this thread is 12000 as it was started earlier but then with this new cap we have all the updates in this thread itself....So the latest status as of today is that 2642 applications have been received out of 8000.

Is the total cap 12000 (As announced in Nov 2013) or 8000 (As announced in may 2014) ?

 

[jasminep]

Dear, The cap is 8000 starting 1st May 2014.

The subject of this thread is 12000 as it was started earlier but then with this new cap we have all the updates in this thread itself....So the latest status as of today is that 2642 applications have been received out of 8000.

Thanks

 

[ABS_1382]

Cap updated as of 09/02/2014 - 2,794 / 8,000