Correct pool model & decent statistical predictions for the next draws

[economicalindian]

That's a 90 mark increase..what is ur ielts score as of now

Im under 383 at the moment, going for another ielts to score CLB9 , hopefully go straight to 470 in May. So far, one of the best model i´ve seen about the draws, keep em coming!

 

[anishsm]

The most accurate calculator so far!!! This would be really useful for people in the next year when we have an entire years worth of data to feed this code!! Superb work man!!

This should be made sticky!!!

 

[senor_1980]

hello...we have 2 more month's data since April...can we have updates and if the 360 mark still stands true? thanks

 

[moamana82]

If they didnt stick to 2 draws per month how can we have statistics with no fixed standards ...i dont know what they are up to exactly ..but i am starting to lose hope with a score of 378 can increase it to 328 by clb9 ielts but then what?

 

[ajanoni]

That's really difficult to predict but I will try to give my opinion.

If we consider the 8th (17/04) for the 9th (22/05) draw, 1361 people entered in the pool and from the 6th (27/03) for the 7th (10/04) the pool increased in 925, let's do the math.

People entering in the pool prediction:

1361 / 35 days = 39 per day
924 / 15 days = 62 per day

Average: (62+39)/2 = 50 per day

In a month we have roughly 1500 people entering in the pool.

 

[Pippin]

Stats is not my strong point, but that seems a really low number. I must have it wrong. The actual number entering the pool would also include many more with scores lower than the draw. Do you really mean there are 1500 with high enough scores to be drawn FROM the pool?

 

[ajanoni]

Stats is not my strong point, but that seems a really low number. I must have it wrong. The actual number entering the pool would also include many more with scores lower than the draw. Do you really mean there are 1500 with high enough scores to be drawn FROM the pool?

Obviously it's a rough prediction once we don't know how many people below 453 joined in the pool and its frequency. Let's say we have the same figures for the low score part of the pool. So we have about 3000 people entering in the pool every month and 36,000 per year. If there will be about 40,000 invitations per year, we conclude that scores will remain above 400 points for a long time.

 

[ajanoni]

http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/department/media/notices/2014-11-06.asp
We will have 51,000 (FSW) + 23,000 (CEC) + 48,000 (PNP) = 122,000 people = 122,000 / 3 = 40,666 invitations counting on 3 people per invitation average

 

[T365]

Guys, what is the purpose of this thread? It's just raising people's hopes based on assumptions, without any certainty.

CIC is un-friggin-predictable even with a perfect statistical model.

Let's stop talking about this, hope for the best and expect the worst.

 

[sunnyvin]

Score will come down to 375 by August end. Only reason the PNP programme will take a lot of people.
OONP will help from next week as those profiles will not be inEE. One doubt that CIC would reduce the number of ITA.

 

[Michau]

hello...we have 2 more month's data since April...can we have updates and if the 360 mark still stands true? thanks

We have 2 months of more data but the data still makes little sense.

There is one important factor which the model does not take into regard, which is the number of people refusing ITAs or submitting their applications and being rejected, then re-creating EE profiles (which, statistically speaking, is the same as if they got ITA but rejected it). From the last two months it looks like this number can be quite high, therefore the model needs to be adjusted for that. But there is not enough data yet to estimate the number of rejected ITAs.

Also, so far CIC is making draws much less frequently than anticipated. It remains to be seen if and when they finally get up to speed.