CIC 19th Draw - How many 450 and above still waiting?

[cyronn]

461. Entered on 10th Oct.

 

[KNinja]

447 and fingers crossed.... I hope they have a draw sometime tommorow

Hey Rafzy
I am preparing my docs after recieving PT Notification of Interest from Ontario.....i have a question regarding the $1500 Draft....I heard that we have to get this draft issued from a Public Sector (Govt Bank) as the Ontario authorities accept those drafts only...Is it tru? Plz guide

 

[Jad77]

No...No...Don't get this wrong, this is not that POOL, where you may shiver or catch cold/flu is you enter in winters. ;D

Hahahhaha, I thought so !

But seriously, don't you think that there is maybe less motivation to think about immigration to Canada in October, while winter is coming?
Some people could say : "brrrrr, Canada now is gonna be Cold, lets think about it in spring...". So less candidate?
That's only a very psychological assumption !

I agree that there is very few people thinking like that, but even if it's 4 or 5 people per day, it means less people entering the pool... (And could affect the CRS cutoff by one point, for example).

 

[cyronn]

Hahahhaha, I thought so !

But seriously, don't you think that there is maybe less motivation to think about immigration to Canada in October, while winter is coming?
Some people could say : "brrrrr, Canada now is gonna be Cold, lets think about it in spring...". So less candidate?
That's only a very psychological assumption !

Lol! My wife (who's my co applicant) thinks exactly like this.. But the way i see it, if we start all this now and it takes about 6 months for the PR to come, we can hopefully be there in Canada during the spring/summer

 

[Jad77]

Lol! My wife (who's my co applicant) thinks exactly like this.. But the way i see it, if we start all this now and it takes about 6 months for the PR to come, we can hopefully be there in Canada during the spring/summer

I agree with you Cyronn, but if your wife thinks like this, it might be others "main applicant", thinking like that, so less people entering the chilling pool ;D ;D ;D

 

[CanadaWeCome]

Hahahhaha, I thought so !

But seriously, don't you think that there is maybe less motivation to think about immigration to Canada in October, while winter is coming?
Some people could say : "brrrrr, Canada now is gonna be Cold, lets think about it in spring...". So less candidate?
That's only a very psychological assumption !

I agree that there is very few people thinking like that, but even if it's 4 or 5 people per day, it means less people entering the pool... (And could affect the CRS cutoff by one point, for example).

No...No... the EE PR process is not same as buying an airline ticket where you buy, board, land and brrrr...its so cold in here.

The fact about Canada is a FACT that's true all year round irrespective of if its winters or spring there, as if, if they apply in spring the next winters won't showup.

So whoever is thinking that way are good dreamers, who need to wake up.

 

[number411]

As the CRS points for any draw has not gone below 450 so far, one point which cannot be denied is that the number of candidates between 440 and 450 is also increasing after every draw to the extent that there might be even around 1500 to 2000 of them including me.

This is a very critical point.

Till July 6th, when CIC reported data for the first half of the year, 8770 profiles were there from 400-449. At the same rate, it will be 13,155 now. Of course, it will not be uniformly distributed from 400-449 and more will be towards the lower end, but assuming it is uniform distribution, there will be 2,631 between 440-449 and again assuming uniform distribution each point has 263 people, and increasing.

Whenever cut-off falls below 450, and if it all it falls, it will take a long long time before it hits 440, 430 etc, because of the back-logs of profiles that remain unclear in these ranges. I think there is hope for 445+ scores in the near future, but below that is anybody's guess.

We need to see annual data reported by CIC to estimate what happens for further lower scores.

 

[cyronn]

This is a very critical point.

Till July 6th, when CIC reported data for the first half of the year, 8770 profiles were there from 400-449. At the same rate, it will be 13,155 now. Of course, it will not be uniformly distributed from 400-449 and more will be towards the lower end, but assuming it is uniform distribution, there will be 2,631 between 440-449 and again assuming uniform distribution each point has 263 people, and increasing.

Whenever cut-off falls below 450, and if it all it falls, it will take a long long time before it hits 440, 430 etc, because of the back-logs of profiles that remain unclear in these ranges. I think there is hope for 445+ scores in the near future, but below that is anybody's guess.

We need to see annual data reported by CIC to estimate what happens for further lower scores.

Fair assessment. Considering so many previous draws have been around 450, there's a good chance the next draw will lower the cut off to a few points below 450. Lets see.

At the same time one can only hope CIC starts working on the 400+ applications soon. From what I've read on this forum lot of people have been waiting in that range for months!

 

[ybjianada]

Actually, it is not far-fetched to say that winter makes one less active overall. There is a thing called "Seasonal Affective Disorder" – SAD for short (aptly):


Seasonal affective disorder (SAD), also known as winter depression, winter blues, summer depression, summertime sadness, or seasonal depression, is a mood disorder subset in which people who have normal mental health throughout most of the year experience depressive symptoms in the winter or summer.

...

Symptoms of SAD may consist of difficulty waking up in the morning, nausea, tendency to oversleep and over eat, especially a craving for carbohydrates, which leads to weight gain. Other symptoms include a lack of energy, difficulty concentrating on or completing tasks, withdrawal from friends, family, and social activities, and decreased sex drive

(The above was from wikipedia - but I am not allowed to post links)

So, it is possible that in places that are approaching winter at this time, some people's mood does get affected a bit. Whether that directly reduces their motivation to apply for Canadian Permanent Residence is a different question though...

However, I am a bit worried about one possibility raised by a poster on this thread – that at this time many people's PNP nominations would have been approved, and that might (significantly) elevate the entry score for the coming draws – please tell me that won't happen

Hahahhaha, I thought so !

But seriously, don't you think that there is maybe less motivation to think about immigration to Canada in October, while winter is coming?
Some people could say : "brrrrr, Canada now is gonna be Cold, lets think about it in spring...". So less candidate?
That's only a very psychological assumption !

I agree that there is very few people thinking like that, but even if it's 4 or 5 people per day, it means less people entering the pool... (And could affect the CRS cutoff by one point, for example).

 

[tozach]

Hi All,

I am one of those guys who has been hanging around this forum for a while. I made my EE profile in January hoping that the early bird would catch the prey. But it didnt quite work out that way . At 433 I didn't really have any chance (in retrospect). After losing another 5 points for my age, we managed to improve the score to 453 after doing ECA and IELTS for my wife. Now, eagerly waiting for the next draw at 453.

And thanks to this forum for the wealth of information available.

Cheers and all the best

 

[cyronn]

Hi All,

I am one of those guys who has been hanging around this forum for a while. I made my EE profile in January hoping that the early bird would catch the prey. But it didnt quite work out that way . At 433 I didn't really have any chance (in retrospect). After losing another 5 points for my age, we managed to improve the score to 453 after doing ECA and IELTS for my wife. Now, eagerly waiting for the next draw at 453.

And thanks to this forum for the wealth of information available.

Cheers and all the best

EE done in January! Wow! Hope you get the ITA in the next lot.. All the best!

 

[Jad77]

This is a very critical point.

Till July 6th, when CIC reported data for the first half of the year, 8770 profiles were there from 400-449. At the same rate, it will be 13,155 now. Of course, it will not be uniformly distributed from 400-449 and more will be towards the lower end, but assuming it is uniform distribution, there will be 2,631 between 440-449 and again assuming uniform distribution each point has 263 people, and increasing.

Whenever cut-off falls below 450, and if it all it falls, it will take a long long time before it hits 440, 430 etc, because of the back-logs of profiles that remain unclear in these ranges. I think there is hope for 445+ scores in the near future, but below that is anybody's guess.

We need to see annual data reported by CIC to estimate what happens for further lower scores.

Very good analysis !
as I said before, my assumption is that the next draw should be between 446 and 449,
based on 80 new entries per day at +450 (and maybe less than 80) + 2600 or so, between 440-449,
>> after 14 days since the last draw (16th October) >> the cutoff would be at 448 or 449 with 1500 invitation or so,
(PNP are included in the 80 per day).
>> after 11 days since the last draw (Today 13th October) >> the cutoff would be at 446 or 447 (and it's where I am).

All depends on the number of PNP given and the number of new entries per day at +450 (and "winter effect"...)!

Good luck to all !

 

[Jad77]

as I explained before, I have done some statistics on the data 8)
there is another statistical finding (since july: mid year report) - the cutoff has been going down by 6 points per month in average.
this is my projection : for October the average should be at 449, November at 443 to 446, December 439 to 443 (It depends also on the number of Ontario PNP and if they stop giving them...), it would be more probably toward 443 points by the end of the year, if they still have PNP to offer.
This average of 6 points would be lowered to 4 points, affected by the backlog in this range (440-450).

a very strong optimistic projection would give a landing at 434 to 439 points by the end of the year (but not less than 434 points!)
so the last draws of the year would be somewhere between 434 and 443... ;D

I think also that 2631 candidates between 440pts and 450pts waiting now in the pool, is a high estimation (probably it's now a miximum of 2000 or so), because not uniform distribution as you said, and even not the same number entering the pool since july within this range.
and people getting out of this range for the reason they got a PNP !!! 8) 8) 8)

lets wait and see.

This is a very critical point.

Till July 6th, when CIC reported data for the first half of the year, 8770 profiles were there from 400-449. At the same rate, it will be 13,155 now. Of course, it will not be uniformly distributed from 400-449 and more will be towards the lower end, but assuming it is uniform distribution, there will be 2,631 between 440-449 and again assuming uniform distribution each point has 263 people, and increasing.

Whenever cut-off falls below 450, and if it all it falls, it will take a long long time before it hits 440, 430 etc, because of the back-logs of profiles that remain unclear in these ranges. I think there is hope for 445+ scores in the near future, but below that is anybody's guess.

We need to see annual data reported by CIC to estimate what happens for further lower scores.

 

[Malik87]

1037 and waiting for this draw eagerly..

 

[Jad77]

1037 and waiting for this draw eagerly..

Congratulation,
nice example of PNP given for a 437 points before !

so more probably, now 1400 to 1800 candidates are standing within the range of 440-450 points...

More evidences that the cutoff will go down...