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Canadians more secure in their jobs, but split on economic future: Poll

OTTAWA — The economic bulls and bears are running neck-and-neck in Canadian public opinion, according to a poll released Thursday that suggests nearly as many people think a double-dip recession is in the offing as believe more hopeful times are ahead.


Despite their glasses apparently being both half full and half empty, respondents to Monster.ca's second annual Labour Day poll were feeling far more secure in their jobs this year than they were in 2009.


Fifty-seven per cent said they felt secure, compared with 46 per cent last year. While a significant portion of respondents — 29 per cent — said they feel uncertain about their job security, that was down from the 38 per cent who felt that way last year.


"What we're hearing is a collective sigh of relief from Canadians," says Mike Jackson, a Monster.ca employee featured in a company video about the survey. "They're not as worried about companies downsizing as much as they were last year and really, what this translates into, is a much higher level of job security across the country."


Poll respondents were nearly evenly split on the country's economic prospects, with 46 per cent worried about another recession next year, and 47 per cent more hopeful. Not surprisingly, respondents in two of the provinces hardest-hit by the economic downturn, Ontario and B.C., were most worried about a double dip, while people in Manitoba and Saskatchewan, which came through relatively unscathed, were least concerned.


Work-life balance continues to be an issue for Canadians, as 82 per cent of respondents said they'd accept a pay cut if that's what it took to achieve it, and 34 per cent saying that that's what's most important to them in a job.


It seems that young people are the most likely to feel a disruption in the work-life continuum — 69 per cent of workers aged 18 to 24 say young, single employees are more likely to be picked to work the unpopular evening and weekend shifts than married people.


"It's called paying your dues," Jackson says in the video. "We've all had to do it."


More than half of the married respondents disagreed that young singles are being discriminated against in this way.


"Work-life balance is becoming a priority for more Canadians," said John Kervin, sociology professor at the University of Toronto. "But there's a price, and it seems young, single workers may be the ones paying it by picking up the slack."


The Harris/Decima survey of 1,008 Canadians, conducted in early August, is accurate plus or minus 3.1 per cent, 19 times out of 20.
 

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Western Canada has strongest labour markets: Study

OTTAWA — Alberta and Saskatchewan were the best performing labour markets in Canada between 2005 and 2009, while Eastern Canada lagged well behind its western Canadian counterparts, according to a study released Thursday by a Canadian public policy think-tank.


Alberta topped all provinces and American states in the ranking reported in Measuring Labour Markets in Canada and the United States: 2010 Edition, published by the Vancouver-based Fraser Institute. The province recorded the highest level of employment growth over the five year span, along with low durations of unemployment.


Saskatchewan recorded the second-best performing labour market in Canada and third overall in North America, an improvement from its eighth place ranking in the 2009 report.


British Columbia ranked third in Canada, and sixth in North America, with Manitoba ranking fourth in Canada and eighth overall. Both provinces moved up in the latest report, from ninth and 21st in North America, respectively.


"There's a clear delineation in the labour market performance of the western provinces compared to Eastern Canada," said Niels Veldhuis, Fraser Institute vice-president of Canadian policy research and co-author of the study.


New Brunswick had the highest ranking of the remaining provinces, 27th overall, followed by Ontario at 31st, Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island, tied at 39th, Quebec at 43rd, and Newfoundland and Labrador last at 49th.


"Ontario and Quebec's labour market performance continues to be very poor, underscoring the need for labour policy reforms," Veldhuis said.


Alaska was the top ranked American state, second overall behind only Alberta.


The report notes that while the recession negatively affected labour market performance in both Canada and the U.S., the deterioration in the U.S. was more severe.


The study assesses the performance of labour markets based on five indicators: total employment growth, private sector employment growth, unemployment rates, duration of unemployment, and labour productivity.

© The Financial Post
 

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Job market at its brightest in nearly 2 years: Survey

OTTAWA — Canada’s jobs market for the final months of 2010 looks the brightest it has in almost two years, according to a quarterly survey released Tuesday.

Staffing agency Manpower’s latest quarterly survey on job prospects showed 21 per cent of the country’s employers plan to expand staff levels in the fourth quarter, seven per cent expect to reduce, 70 per cent anticipate no changes and two per cent are unsure.

The overall outlook is a positive score of 15 per cent, which is essentially the proportion planning to hire minus those planning layoffs, adjusted for seasonal variations.

It’s up four points from the outlook going into the current third quarter, and a 10-point jump from last year’s fourth quarter. It’s Manpower’s strongest quarterly outlook since it hit 16 per cent going into the first quarter of 2009.

“It’s been steadily increasing over the course of the year,” said John Cappelli, a director with Manpower Canada. “If you look back at the way things were in the second and third quarter of 2009, and then still weak into 2010, it’s been a steady, gradual increase.”

The mining sector came out as the strongest area for short-term job prospects, with a positive hiring outlook of 25 per cent. That was followed by manufacturing in durable goods with an outlook of 21 per cent, that sector’s strongest showing in 10 years.

Regionally, the most active hiring environments are expected to be in Atlantic Canada and Western Canada, each with a net outlook of 17 per cent. Ontario is expected to have a “respectable” hiring climate with a positive score of 14 per cent, and Quebec’s job market for the fourth quarter is “moderate” with an outlook of eight per cent.

Cappelli said it’s mining that is largely responsible for bringing the bright hiring outlook on Canada’s east and west coasts. He also noted that the recharged automotive industry, concentrated in Ontario, is big part of why there’s ample hiring in the manufacturing sector.
 

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Economy may stall in its track in July, analysts warn

OTTAWA — After a blistering start to the year, Canada's economy may have ground to a halt in July, economists said Monday after the release of a report showing another key segment of the economy faltering.


Wholesale trade, an indication of what's coming at the consumer level, slipped 0.1 per cent in July to $43.9 billion, the fourth straight month of declines, Statistics Canada reported. The drop comes on the heels of second-half weakening in housing, manufacturing and trade. Taken together, those numbers mean the economy, which was roaring along at 5.8 per cent growth in the first quarter, could post a zero in July, analysts said.


"Economic output is expected to start the second half of the year on decidedly weak footing following the healthy 0.2 per cent advance recorded in June," said David Tulk, strategist at TD Securities.


"It is likely that real GDP will contract in July," said Tulk.


To post a positive number, the economy will have to outperform on several fronts, said Scotia Capital economist Derek Holt.


Primary among them is retail sales. Growth in the numbers, to be released Wednesday, would signal continued expansion in the two-thirds of the economy that is driven by consumers.


For them, an economy coming off its stimulus-driven boil will likely mean jobs and wage gains will be harder to come by. But it could also spell a temporary reprieve from higher borrowing costs as the Bank of Canada pauses from its recent round of rate hikes, which sent the overnight lending rate to one per cent, Tulk said.


And while the economy is slowing, Tulk warned against reading too much into the monthly data. April produced zero growth while the second quarter still eked out gains of two per cent, he pointed out.


But gone for now are the stimulus-driven days of scorching job growth and roaring housing markets.


"The third quarter is going to be a lot closer to what we saw in the second quarter than what we saw in the first," Tulk said.


Weighing as well are weaker economic numbers out of the U.S., our biggest trading partner, and high levels of personal indebtedness in Canada that will likely cap consumer spending.


Monday's wholesale sale figures were in fact worse than the 0.1 per cent decline suggests, Holt said. The number is lower than economists had been forecasting and, once adjusted for the impact of prices, shows sales volumes falling by 0.3 per cent.


The motor vehicle and parts sector led the declines, falling 3.2 per cent, while inventories expanded for the fifth time in six months. That expansion of available goods poses a risk to jobs and production, which would be more likely be curtailed with excess inventory available in warehouses.


Inventory-to-sales ratios are now bloated, just as they were going into the crisis in 2008, Holt said.
 

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B.C. municipality first to apologize for discrimination against Chinese Canadians

The city of New Westminster — once home to one of the largest Chinatowns in British Columbia — is making a historic formal apology to the Chinese-Canadian community for past racism and discrimination.


The first ever such apology to be given by a Canadian municipality will be read by New Westminster Mayor Wayne Wright in city council chambers Monday evening, first in English then in Chinese.


"It is a good start, a courageous start," said Bill Chu of the Canadians for Reconciliation Society. "But this is only the beginning of the process of reconciliation, which is an endless project . . . and something we really need to continue working toward as a community."


Chu's group has been advocating for the reconciliation process since last year, after the New Westminster school district's plan to build New Westminster Secondary School on top of a former Chinese cemetery drew outrage from local community groups.


As part of the reconciliation process, the council will consider creating a memorial at the site of the former cemetery and erect plaques and signage at the site of the former Chinatown, before it was relocated to an area known as "the swamp." The city's Chinatown was completely destroyed in the great fire of 1898.


Also, the city turned the site where the Chinese Benevolent Association once stood into a dog-walking park.


The Canadians for Reconciliation Society drew attention to the historical injustices against the Chinese population living in the then-capital city, as well as all across B.C.


New Westminster city council conducted its own research over eight months, digging into archived minutes of council meetings from 1860 to 1926.


It concluded that the Chinese community was discriminated against at that time through restrictions of employment opportunities and through appeals by council at the time to the federal government advocating discriminatory policies, such as the Chinese Exclusion Act.


More than 15,000 Chinese labourers came to Canada in the mid-1900s to assist in the construction of the Canadian Pacific Railway. They were paid less than white workers and were given the most strenuous and dangerous jobs.


When the railway was finished, the government set in place measures to stop the flow of immigrants from China to Canada, including the tax.


In 2006, Prime Minister Stephen Harper offered a full apology to Chinese Canadians for the Head Tax imposed on Chinese newcomers. He also expressed sorrow for the exclusion of Chinese immigrants from 1923 until 1947.


"For over six decades, these malicious measures, aimed solely at the Chinese, were implemented with deliberation by the Canadian state," said Harper. "This was a grave injustice, and one we are morally obligated to acknowledge."


The federal government apologized in June to Canada's First Nations for the treatment of aboriginals in residential schools during the 19th century that were intended to force their assimilation into Canadian society.


Harper used five languages — Ojibwa, Cree, Inuktutuk, French and English — to apologize to the estimated 87,000 living survivors of the school system and their families "for failing them so profoundly."


The prime minister recounted the legacy of the century-long assimilation policy that wrenched 150,000 aboriginal children from their parents and forced them to live in schools where their language and culture were banned and where many were abused physically and sexually.
 

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'Naked' screening may land at Canadian airports, says privacy czar


OTTAWA — Canada's privacy watchdog has warned that even more intrusive "naked" screening machines at airports could be in the works with the federal government's emphasis on national security.


Speaking to members of the Canadian Bar Association, Jennifer Stoddart on Monday highlighted national security as one of the pressing issues that keeps her "up at night" and mused openly about second generation full-body scanners coming to Canada in the future, calling them "naked, naked" scanners.


"National security pressures — they're real, they're constant," Stoddart, Canada's privacy commissioner since 2003, told participants of the special symposium about privacy in the age of technology.


"Are we going to get naked, naked machines? Apparently, not for the moment."


Stoddart's office began probing privacy considerations of full body imaging technologies in 2008, and signed off earlier this year on the use of millimetre wave body scanners as a secondary screening tool at major airports across Canada.


At the time, Stoddart acknowledged the imaging machines, which scan through clothing and produce a three-dimensional outline of a person's naked body to catch any non-metallic objects, were controversial, but said the Canadian Air Transport Security Authority agreed to use the technology to minimize the intrusion to privacy.


In an interview following her remarks, Stoddart noted the Transportation Security Administration in the United States already uses machines with "more sharply" defined imaging technology called backscatter.


And recently, "there was some talk in the United States of another form of scanner in which the images are even sharper," said Stoddart.


"We're called upon to continuously pass judgment on these."


A spokesman for CATSA confirmed Canadian airports are currently using millimeter wave technology, but declined to say whether an investment in new imagine machines to obtain even sharper images is in the works for the future.


"We do not have any information to share on 'upgrade,'" said spokesman Mathieu Larocque.


In January, Ottawa announced the purchase of 44-full-body screening machines using millimetre wave technology for $11 million for installation at airports in Toronto, Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Montreal, Ottawa and Halifax.


The announcement came on the heels of a failed terrorist attack in the U.S. on Dec. 25.


A spokesman for TSA said the agency currently deploys 135 units using backscatter technology and 89 machines using milllimeter wave technology, and plans to continue to have a mix of the two as it ramps up to 1,000 units by the end of 2011, completing a shift from using full-body scanners as secondary screening to primary screening.


"Privacy is a keystone to this technology and there's privacy algorithms that are placed on the images as well as other steps taken to ensure that passengers' privacy is always protected," said Greg Soule.


He added, "Our machines are delivered to the airport without the ability to store, transmit or print images. Once an image is cleared, it is gone forever."


During her symposium presentation, Stoddart also took a shot at the U.S. government for failing to take on the Google and Facebook "empires."


"Why is Canada paying for the cost of this enforcement for this technology that's coming to us out of Mountain View (Calif.), so we're looking for the U.S. federal government to step up there," said Stoddart.


Situated in California's Silicon Valley, Mountain View is home to many of the largest technology companies in the world, including Google.


In the spring, Stoddart led an international effort of nine data protection authorities around the world "to express their concerns" about privacy issues related to Google Buzz. Since then, Canada's privacy watchdog has launched an investigation into the online giant's inadvertent collection of data from unsecured wireless networks as its cars were photographing streetscapes for its Street View map service.


In the case of Facebook, after announcing in July 2009 the social media giant was operating outside of Canada's private-sector privacy law, Stoddart gave the company one year to change or face the risk of being hauled before a federal judge. The idea was to compel Facebook to implement the commissioner's directives to provide users more detailed control over their personal information and to curtail the access of outside software and website developers to their data.


Stoddart is expected to make an imminent announcement about Facebook, which is also facing a second investigation, launched in January.
 

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Recession caused global decrease in economic freedom: Report

The effects of the global recession caused the average level of economic freedom around the world to drop for the first time in decades, according to a new study released Monday by a Canadian public policy think-tank.


Canada wasn't spared from the decline, although its score changed only slightly, maintaining its ranking of seventh overall, according to the Economic Freedom of the World: 2010 Annual Report produced by the Vancouver-based Fraser Institute.


"Although Canada remains one of the world's most economically free nations, our government's response to the recession, which included additional borrowing and debt plus increased regulation, resulted in a slight drop in Canada's overall level of economic freedom," said Fred McMahon, Fraser Institute vice-president of international policy research.


The Fraser Institute defines economic freedom as having personal choice, voluntary exchange, the freedom to compete, and security of private property.


According to Fraser's research, people living in countries with high levels of economic freedom enjoy higher levels of prosperity, greater individual freedoms, and longer life spans.


The study found that economic freedom experienced its first global downturn in a quarter century, with the average score falling to 6.67 out of 10 in 2008 (the most recent year for which information is available) from 6.74 in 2007.


Of the 123 countries with economic freedom rankings dating back to 1980, 88 saw their rankings decrease while only 35 recorded increases.


McMahon said the economic downturn of the last few years caused changes, but that "even in the wake of recession, the quality of life in nations with free and open markets is vastly superior to that of countries with government-managed economies."


Hong Kong leads the rankings of 141 nations, followed by Singapore, New Zealand, Switzerland, Chile, the United States and Canada.


Zimbabwe maintains the lowest level of economic freedom according to the study, joined by Myanmar, Angola, and Venezuela at the back of the pack.


The annual report measured economic freedom in five areas: size of government, legal structure and security of property rights, access to hard currency, freedom to trade internationally, and regulatory structures.
 

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Bankruptcies down in July, but still showing 'culture of debt'

OTTAWA — The latest figures show a clear downward trend for bankruptcies in Canada, though some say the number of cases are still at problematic levels.


Data released Monday by the federal Office of the Superintendent of Bankruptcies showed bankruptcies down in July on a monthly basis, a year-to-year basis, and in both categories of consumers and businesses.


Overall bankruptcies were 7,435 in July, down 30.7 per cent form a year before and a 13.5 per cent decline from June.


Most bankruptcies — 7,141 — were at the consumer level, down 30.6 per cent from July 2009 and a drop of 13.3 per cent from the previous month.


Business bankruptcies came in at 294 for July, down 31.9 per cent from a year before and a drop of 16.7 per cent from June.


For the 12-month period ended in July, total bankruptcies were down 7.6 per cent, consumer filings had fallen 6.9 per cent and business bankruptcies were fewer by 21.6 per cent.


Despite these declines, Andy Fisher, a bankruptcy trustee with A. Farber & Partners in Toronto, said the rate of insolvencies is high on a historical basis.


"I've been in this business about 16 years, and when I started . . . we were seeing a much lower number of insolvencies," he said.


The latest figures show more than 140,000 individuals filed for bankruptcy or a proposal — the latter being a more limited form of creditor protection — in the 12 months ended in July. Fisher said 80,000 to 90,000 a year is more typical when looking at the last 16 years.


Fisher said that while the recession helped cause record figures for bankruptcies last year, current levels are more a symptom of a longer-term cultural trend than economic cycle.


"There is in Canada — and I would think in most other western nations — a culture of debt," he said. "(Governments) want people to spend. They're encouraging consumers to spend. They're encouraging the banks to loosen their credit facilities so that people can get access to credit to spend their money."


Recently, a number of reports from various agencies — including Statistics Canada, the Canadian Payroll Association, and the Paris-based Organization of Economic Co-operation and Development — focused on the relatively high household-debt level in Canada.


Fisher said this makes many people in this country vulnerable to insolvency if their income circumstances change even a little bit.


"If you're carrying a high amount of debt, you're struggling from paycheque to paycheque, and all of sudden your hours get cut — you're that GM guy that's making lots of overtime, and the overtime gets cut, you don't even have to lose your job — then it just become unmanageable."
 

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Economic concerns on the minds of Canadians coast-to-coast: Poll


Canadians are taking on second jobs and dipping into their savings to cope with the effects of last year's recession, according to a cross-country survey.


The Ipsos Reid survey, commissioned by Global News, found that more than one in five of the 7,200 Canadians polled said they had changed their retirement plans because of the prolonged economic downturn.


Among those, 17 per cent said they had been working more hours or taken on a second job; less than half said they held full-time employment.


Of all respondents, 35 per cent said they had no retirement plans whatsoever.


While the poll suggested that more Canadians feel secure about their jobs this year compared to last, a full quarter of respondents said they were uncertain of their job security.


The numbers were most dramatic in Prince Edward Island, where 42 per cent of those who acknowledged changing their retirement plans said they were spending more time working.


In Saskatoon, where a population boom has led to a doubling of house prices in five years, 20 per cent of respondents said they had altered their retirement plans in response to the recession. Of those, 28 per cent of respondents said they had been working more hours or had taken on another job.


In Regina, 82 per cent of respondents said they expected to work past the normal retirement age of 65.


More than half of the people polled in Toronto said they had dipped into their RRSPs to cover expenses.


"Across the country, what we're seeing is the aftermath of a storm," said John Wright, senior vice-president of Ipsos Reid. "The storm was the recession."
 

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Canada's economy goes into reverse

OTTAWA — Canada's economy declined in July for the first time in almost a year as the country's recovery faltered after an initially strong rebound from recession.


Statistics Canada said Thursday the economy shrank 0.1 per cent during the month, as widely expected. "Manufacturing, retail and wholesale trade, construction and forestry all posted decreases. Increases were recorded in the mining sector and, to a lesser extent, in some financial industries and the public sector," the federal agency said.


The decline in gross domestic product was in line with economists' forecasts.


The July report marked the first monthly contraction since August 2009, when GDP shrank 0.1 per cent. That had been the only month to show a decline in economic activity since a 10-month string of reduced GDP readings between August 2008 and May 2009. Economic growth was flat in April.


Diana Petramala, economist with TD Economics, said July's economic retreat "was likely temporary in nature."


"It's not all that surprising that Canadian economic growth has started to unwind given the introduction of the harmonized sales tax in Ontario and B.C., and as the positive impact from stimulus spending is beginning to wane," she said.


"If the respectable 35,000 job gain in August is any indication, positive economic growth should resume in August, albeit at a tepid pace."


BMO Financial Group chief economist Sherry Cooper said July's weak GDP reading was "reflecting sluggish U.S. demand and payback for having home-renovation activity and home sales pulled forward earlier in the year, along with the lingering legacy of a lofty loonie."


She added: "Things might improve a bit in subsequent months, but it now looks like Q3 will struggle just to maintain 1 1/2 per cent-ish annualized growth. Not only is this down from two per cent in Q2, but it represents even further underperformance versus the Bank of Canada's admittedly now stale economic projections. Recall that they were looking for three per cent in Q2 and 2.8 per cent in Q3."


David Tulk, a senior strategist at TD Securities, said the central bank — which has raised its trendsetting interest rate from a record low 0.25 per cent to the current level of one per cent — "will move to the sidelines at the October meeting and will remain there for the balance of the year."


Statistics Canada said manufacturing fell 0.7 per cent in July, with 11 of the 21 major groups within the sector posting declines.


"Manufacturing of durable goods decreased by 0.5 per cent, notably of furniture, metallic and non-metallic products. Increases in the production of food and beverages and motor-vehicle parts tempered the decrease in the manufacturing sector," the agency said.


Construction declined 0.5 per cent, led lower by residential building construction, which fell two per cent. Home resales declined for a third straight month, with activity by real estate agents and brokers dropping eight per cent. "The output of this industry stood at about two-thirds of its level recorded at the beginning of 2010," Statistics Canada said.


Retail trade declined 0.5 per cent, after a 0.7 per cent advance in June.


Mining industries saw a 1.1 per cent expansion in July, with Statistics Canada citing increased production of metals such as copper, nickel, lead and zinc.


Meanwhile, U.S. government data on Thursday showed economic growth was higher in the second quarter than previously estimated. Annualized GDP growth was revised to 1.7 per cent from 1.6 per cent, the Commerce Department said Thursday. Analysts had expected the previous 1.6 per cent reading to stand.
 

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Canadian consumer confidence drops, RBC reports

Consumer confidence in Canada has dropped "significantly," according to the September issue of the RBC Canadian Consumer Outlook Index, reflecting concerns over the rate of global economic recovery.


The report issued Friday, said consumer confidence in Canada had remained about the same as December 2009, but then fell 14 points from 108 to 94 in the three areas that make up the index: current conditions, expectations and personal investments.


RBC said that while six in 10 Canadians, or about 60 per cent, feel the overall economic outlook is good, this is down seven points from the last quarter. The report suggests job anxiety, at about 22 per cent, is up two points from the last quarter, but still down from a high of 27 per cent in November 2009.


However, looking ahead to next year, fewer Canadians, 46 per cent, feel the national economy will improve and that's down nine points from three months ago.


Personal debt management is still top of mind for many consumers, the report says, adding half of Canadians say they are focusing efforts on reducing their debt over the next year and 39 per cent plan on spending less.


"It's good to see people focused on debt management and reduction," Andrea Bolger, senior vice-president, personal financing products at RBC said in a release.


"It's important that Canadians feel confident and understand that managing debt is crucial to their financial success."


The RBC index found most Canadians, about 78 per cent, don't do an official debt review on a yearly basis, but a majority, about 60 per cent do keep a close track of their debt standing.


"Regularly reviewing your borrowing needs and credit situation while building your assets . . . is key to staying on top of your finances and ensuring your goals are being met," Bolger said.


The September index also found that 26 per cent of Canadians think their personal financial situation will improve in the next three months and about 39 per cent think their situation will improve over the next year. That's down slightly from the previous measure of 42 per cent.


Sixty-six per cent of Canadians think interest rates are going up in the next six months, a decrease from the last quarter (84 per cent). Three-in-ten Canadians (28 per cent) expect that interest rates will stay the same over the same period.


"The uncertain and uneven global economic outlook has not gone unnoticed by consumers, translating to heightened anxiety and weaker confidence," said Craig Wright, senior vice-president and chief economist, RBC.


"The continued uncertainty and uneven recovery was one of the factors contributing to us downgrading our 2010 forecast, expecting GDP growth of 3.3 per cent, down from 3.6 per cent projected last quarter."


The RBC index is conducted online by Ipsos Reid. The panel of 4,292 Canadians consists of 642 people in British Columbia, 473 in Alberta, 500 in Saskatchewan/Manitoba, 1,360 in Ontario, 848 in Quebec and 469 Atlantic Canada.
 

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