Are we expecting the 19th draw to occur tomorrow?

[Aragorn165]

The 18th draw happened last Friday, on October 2 (as I predicted multiple times), but are we expecting the 19th draw to be tomorrow? There are still seven draws left till the end of the year, and only three months left, so i imagine there will be one month with three draws- I also think they want to get that month out of the way now, what with the holiday season and the elections coming up.
So I think it is reasonable to suppose that October is the month that will have three draws- the question is, will the next one be tomorrow? And if so, what are we expecting the cutoff to be? Will it still be 450? Rise a bit? Fall a bit?

 

[rafzy]

I hope there is a draw tommorow and the score falls down to 445.

 

[mf4361]

1. CIC never guarantees 25 draws.

2. 450, at least for this government.

3. It's Wednesday today in Canada timezone.

 

[Aragorn165]

I hope there is a draw tommorow and the score falls down to 445.

Make it 440, and I'd be right there with you

1. CIC never guarantees 25 draws.

2. 450, at least for this government.

3. It's Wednesday today in Canada timezone.

1. While true, remember, they need to demonstrate the EE program as a success, particularly against the older program, and the only way to demonstrate that is to have a higher number of enrollments (as demonstrated by the backlash against EE after they released their mid year report with a decline in YoY applications and enrollments)

2. Maybe, but again, Point #1

3. True, I messed up there

I am not saying that there will be a draw tomorrow, or that the score will drop- I am just arguing the other side of the coin

 

[Snehakhanna11]

Hello everyone. Is 406 without any jobs offer a score good enough? Also, received a message that says Ontario province has shown interest in my profile so I'm getting all my documents in line for that. Will need to pay a fees of 1500 Canadian Dollars, does anyone know if this fees is refundable in anyway? And if the highest score one can get without job offer is 600 then how exactly did the pool draw cut off start with 800 above in January 2015? Anyone knows of the number of invites or applicants targeted for 2015?? I read a few posts here that say the CIC have a target of 180000 candidates to put through express entry programs for 2015. According to all the draws so far a total of 23000 plus candidates have been sent an ITA already.. So how many more expected until December and could the score drop to 406??? :'(

 

[Aragorn165]

Hello everyone. Is 406 without any jobs offer a score good enough? Also, received a message that says Ontario province has shown interest in my profile so I'm getting all my documents in line for that. Will need to pay a fees of 1500 Canadian Dollars, does anyone know if this fees is refundable in anyway? And if the highest score one can get without job offer is 600 then how exactly did the pool draw cut off start with 800 above in January 2015? Anyone knows of the number of invites or applicants targeted for 2015?? I read a few posts here that say the CIC have a target of 180000 candidates to put through express entry programs for 2015. According to all the draws so far a total of 23000 plus candidates have been sent an ITA already.. So how many more expected until December and could the score drop to 406??? :'(

1. The lowest the cutoff has ever gotten yet is 450, so 406 is probably not going to cut it. Maybe look into increasing your score, by increasing your IELTS? Apart from that, PNPs would be a good way to go, which brings me to...
2. Accept the Ontario nomination. It is your best shot.
3. The fees is non refundable, unless your application is returned to you for being incomplete
4. You can be over 600 without a job offer too
5. By the middle of the year, CIC had invited 12,000 people, with another 9,000 ITAs having been issued since then.
6. Seven more draws are expected through to the end of the year.
7. We don't know how many invitations CIC has got left from this year's quota, we do know they have not run out of them yet.

 

[Snehakhanna11]

Thank you so much for your guidance. However, I and my friend with the same educational assessment and similar job experience I scored a 25 each on CRS skills & education transferability and a score of 122 on ielts evaluation with my ielts score being a 8 overall. And my friend scored a 50 each and a 136 on her ielts with an 8.5 overall. And There are no dates available until January 2016 for the next ielts test and by then the new 2016 years quota would start. I don't really know how exactly to go from here :'( any idea on how I can amend the work & education transferability skills and further better my score?? Thanks again

 

[purplesnow]

The 18th draw happened last Friday, on October 2 (as I predicted multiple times), but are we expecting the 19th draw to be tomorrow? There are still seven draws left till the end of the year, and only three months left, so i imagine there will be one month with three draws- I also think they want to get that month out of the way now, what with the holiday season and the elections coming up.
So I think it is reasonable to suppose that October is the month that will have three draws- the question is, will the next one be tomorrow? And if so, what are we expecting the cutoff to be? Will it still be 450? Rise a bit? Fall a bit?

they've not yet done a draw the Friday before a holiday so I'd be surprised if they did one this week. Its Thanksgiving here next Monday.

 

[Snehakhanna11]

Thanks Aragon I and my friend both applied together and we both have same educational assessments and she scored a 136 with her ielts overall score of 8.5 and I scored a 122 with a listening = 8.5 reading =7.5 writing= 6.5 speaking= 9 and overall of 8. My CRS transferable skills for education scored a 25 whereas my friend with the same scored a 50.
Our work profiles were a little different and I have a NOC 0124 experience of 2& half years and a combination of others in O A B categories. Any idea if that could be a reason for my CRS transferability work skills scored me a 25 ? Should it be a category 0 consistently or combination is ok? When I try to modify the already submitted profile I don't see the list of job duties to select as they have been a little different from my actual roles.. Can you or anyone help me figure where and how exactly do I need to log in to change that? Or shall I resubmit my profile? Since I do have an interest letter from Ontario and am within the 45 days deadline?

 

[scylla]

Hello everyone. Is 406 without any jobs offer a score good enough? Also, received a message that says Ontario province has shown interest in my profile so I'm getting all my documents in line for that. Will need to pay a fees of 1500 Canadian Dollars, does anyone know if this fees is refundable in anyway? And if the highest score one can get without job offer is 600 then how exactly did the pool draw cut off start with 800 above in January 2015? Anyone knows of the number of invites or applicants targeted for 2015?? I read a few posts here that say the CIC have a target of 180000 candidates to put through express entry programs for 2015. According to all the draws so far a total of 23000 plus candidates have been sent an ITA already.. So how many more expected until December and could the score drop to 406??? :'(

There is absolutely NO chance the score is going to drop to 406 by December. I'll be shocked if the scores drop that low by the end of next year.

The 180,000 target has been extensively discussed here so I'm not going to do it again. The majority of the individuals who make up the 180,000 are people who applied for immigration pre-2015.

 

[Asivad Anac]

Thanks Aragon I and my friend both applied together and we both have same educational assessments and she scored a 136 with her ielts overall score of 8.5 and I scored a 122 with a listening = 8.5 reading =7.5 writing= 6.5 speaking= 9 and overall of 8. My CRS transferable skills for education scored a 25 whereas my friend with the same scored a 50.
Our work profiles were a little different and I have a NOC 0124 experience of 2& half years and a combination of others in O A B categories. Any idea if that could be a reason for my CRS transferability work skills scored me a 25 ? Should it be a category 0 consistently or combination is ok? When I try to modify the already submitted profile I don't see the list of job duties to select as they have been a little different from my actual roles.. Can you or anyone help me figure where and how exactly do I need to log in to change that? Or shall I resubmit my profile? Since I do have an interest letter from Ontario and am within the 45 days deadline?

Your score is dragged down because of your Writing score. If you had a 7 there, you'll get more points under Skills Transferability.

 

[gregrdyer]

I am speculating that if October has only 2 draws then we could expect scores in the range of 447 - 470. Additionally, if October has only 2 draws then we could also expect more than 2 draws for November and December. The more draws there are in a month, the less time there would be between draws for new applicants to enter the pool, which mean that scores could fall as low as 440 (which is where I sit).

I am also speculating that because of the Christmas holidays, CIC may not want any draws after December 18th (several staff members might be spending time with their families). Which would mean less time period for the draws to take place. This could be very beneficial for us with scores below 450.

 

[gregrdyer]

So I guys, I did an Excel Spreadsheet to track all the Express Entry Draw data and there are some interesting findings. These findings are as follows:


TOTAL ITAs: 23,542
Avg. ITAs/month: 1308
Avg. CRS: 556
Avg. Draws/month: 2
Avg. days b/draws: 14


I also used Excel's TREND formula to forecast where scores could reach and amount of ITAs that could be issued, in addition to the next date for draw.

EXCEL generated the following:
============================================================================
FORECAST
============================================================================

ITA: 1700
CRS: 351

Next Draw Date:
19 Oct (ELECTION DAY)....so 16 Oct is a more likelihood.

PLEASE NOTE:
The forecast data is not fact, just what Excel generated.

 

[scylla]

I also used Excel's TREND formula to forecast where scores could reach and amount of ITAs that could be issued, in addition to the next date for draw.

EXCEL generated the following:
============================================================================
FORECAST
============================================================================

ITA: 1700
CRS: 351

There is absolutely no hope the score will drop to 351 in the next draw.

 

[ioorabh]

Can we accept a score below 450 in the 19th draw? Can that happen this week?

Although My score is less than 450, I think the draw will be above 450