Are sudden drops in draw scores possible
- Thread starter Wolverine17
- Start date
Yup, Because of draws regularly clearing application above 480(Most applicants having PNPs and LMIAs) , such drops are possible. But looking at the current stack up of applications from March until September. I think the decline would take a slower trend.
If they invite 2500 people in the next draw then 450 is possible. Now the question is how likely they are going to invite 2500 people in the next draw. Also, the example provided in earlier comment of sudden drop is too naive. You cannot see any such drops under 480 and surely, it won't happen (100+ point drop below 470 - 460 zone).
Inviting 2500 means giving PR to 8000 to 10,000 potential applicants coz most of the applicants have spouses and children. They would mess up the targets by inviting such a large number in a single draw. 1000 ITAs every draw makes perfect sense if we see immigration targets for the year.
More than 1000 got invited in the last draw so maybe they will keep on doing that .SecularFirst said:
That is nonsense. The statistics show otherwise: http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/resources/statistics/facts2014/permanent/02.aspSecularFirst said:
For example, in 2014, in terms of skilled workers there were 28,773 primary applicants who gained permanent residence. There were 38,712 people who gained PR as a dependent or spouse. So for every primary applicant there were approximately 1.34 spouses/dependents. You're well off the mark suggesting that 1 ITA = up to 4 PRs.
Working on the basis of 1.34 to 1 ITA alone, you can expect that 2500 ITAs would mean approximately 5,850 total PRs. This isn't even accounting for the fact that many ITAs don't actually go anywhere. Remember that 1 ITA does not equal 1 PR. There are many ITAs which time out as the applicant doesn't complete the documentation within 60 days, there are many which get rejected as circumstances have changed since the EE profile was created and many who get rejected for a multitude of other reasons. In reality it's lower than this due to the factors I've mentioned.
2015 statistics back this up as well - www.cic.gc.ca/english/resources/reports/ee-year-end-2015.asp
Out of 31,063 ITAs issued, only 21,562 applications were received from primary applicants, totalling 37,424 applicants and their family members. On this basis, it appears that 1 ITA actually leads to 1.2 PRs - although in reality it will be lower than this even due to rejections.
Not entirely impossible, but very unlikely in my view. I'd expect there to still be more than 1500 people with CRS higher than 475, especially given that there is some evidence from previous draw numbers that there is a bit of a backlog around the 481 mark, although I have a feeling that it's not as big as some people are suggesting (masters degree plus max work experience, max age and max IELTS is a pretty high bar to meet imo). If I were you I'd be optimistic of getting an ITA by the end of the year if ITAs remain between 1200-1500 but perhaps not in the next draw or two.rubinderjit said:
What about the new policy says add more points to international students and people with relatives in Canada?
i think for scores to drop to around 460>, there needs to be like 4-5 draws with 2000 ITA ... consectively...thourb said:
my crystal ball (lol) says 1500 ITA with around 478 for 5th october draw... lets see hwat happens...
next 3 draws will be very crucial, i'm very curious to see if things pan out as others have been predicting.
I think they have too many applicants with the score of 450 to 480. How are they going to choose between them if they bring down the score? Do they cherry pick Educations? Taking CEC applicants over FSW? Are they going to go back to the "list of needed occupations", like when it was paper based? If yes, then why even bother having Express Entry??
Not saying they shouldn't go down, they certainly should, specially considering how many qualified applicants (like int students with CEC) are between those score range, but this is CIC, they are slow and inefficient in their programs/responses. They try something for 3-4 years and when it fails, they try it again for a few more years just to make sure it fails. Then introduce a new program and follow the same logic.
Not saying they shouldn't go down, they certainly should, specially considering how many qualified applicants (like int students with CEC) are between those score range, but this is CIC, they are slow and inefficient in their programs/responses. They try something for 3-4 years and when it fails, they try it again for a few more years just to make sure it fails. Then introduce a new program and follow the same logic.
As sad as it might sound, I am no predicting any bigger drops any time soon. The only reason we have seen some reasonable drops in the past (mainly in 2015) was the reason that the system was new and people were still hunting documents or improving their language tests. But by now, there is rather big pool of applicants who put their points on max (IELTS tests and education assessment).
So the current trend is rather to seek options how to get additional points. That can be either with direct job offer or provincial nominations.
That part does take time (especially with PNP), so about now I predict even slight point increase, because of the update in many PNP applicants.
And this trend will not go down unless they will not significantly increase amount of ITA per month.
There are way more than 1000 new EE every 14 days. so the competition gets actually tighter.
So the current trend is rather to seek options how to get additional points. That can be either with direct job offer or provincial nominations.
That part does take time (especially with PNP), so about now I predict even slight point increase, because of the update in many PNP applicants.
And this trend will not go down unless they will not significantly increase amount of ITA per month.
There are way more than 1000 new EE every 14 days. so the competition gets actually tighter.