Cam1234 said:
Hi Asaif:
Out of curiosity, if our forum represents 3% of the total applicants under the cap, how in the world did you calculate the probability that our group will not rceive an AOR in any given day to be 13%? :
I would think it would be much higher than that... just passing time
Cam
since we are only 3% of the entire population, if an AOR is issued, there is a probability of 97% that it doesn't belong to one of us.
If two AORs are issued, the probability that both of them don't belong to someone in the forum = 97% * 97% = 94.1%
If n AORs are issued, there is a probability of (0.97)^n that all of them belong to people outside this forum, which means that in this particular case, none of us will get AORs.
Since I assumed that they issue 67 AORs per day (2 / 3%), so the probability that no one in the forum gets an AOR = (0.97)^67 = 13% approximately.
This figure is just a very rough estimation based on the limited data available to us and contingent on the soundness of the assumptions used.