As per the trends, your eligibility is cleared within the first 5 months and then what is left is the security and criminality. This is for the FSW (outland). For the inland applicants, the process is different, their BGC goes in progress within a few days after they receive the AoR. So its is difficult to predict if it is just a technical issue, or the BGC is initiated sooner in the application.
The anatomy of an standard application is as follows:
1. Enter the EE pool.
2. Receive the ITA.
3. File application and supporting documents.
4. AoR - Automatically acknowledged, usually on the same day as submission.
5. The first step is to check for completeness. This usually triggers the application review "IN PROGRESS." This is done at the Centralized Intake Office (CIO).
6. Next stage is the R10 review. This is the first stringent check of the application against the EE profile you created. The Regulation 10 of the Immigration and Refugee Protection Regulations imposes a strict liability on the applicants to account for all documents uploaded, satisfy what was stated in the EE profile, and ensure that there are no gaps. If you do not provide the documents or they are filed incorrectly, your application can be rejected due to the strict liability on the applicant under this regulation. However, a lot depends on the agent reviewing the file. Under the R 10 review your IELTS, ECA are checked against the websites to ascertain that there is no misrepresentation. (R10 review is done within the 1-3 months of filing the application). If an applicants age has changed from EE profile to ITA, then the same is recorded and his score is affected. This is also done at the CIO level. Most of the applications are rejected here.
7. At the R10 review if you have any documents missing, the application is rejected, or more time is given to file the document if there is a Letter of Explanation (LoE). It largely depends on the agent reviewing it. Some are brutal and will reject the application even for a minor error.
8. Usually by this stage the medicals are also passed. Recently some applicants received request to re-access their medicals when the file reached the Local Visa Office (LVO). I have a theory for this, but in most cases, once the medicals are passed, they are good until the final review stage. The applicants who received a re-assesment for the medicals could be because of two reasons:
a. The doctor or the facility which examined them had a complaint against it, or the CIC found something fishy about how things were being conducted there; or
b. The medicals did not disclose the required parameters, or the applicant had an underlying medical issue, which the CIC wanted to get re-assessed.
8. Now the next stage is to determine eligibility, i.e. whether the application meets the program prerequisites under which it is filed. For FSW, your experience, letters of reference, education, etc are in order. For the PNP, FSW and your nomination is present, for CEC, your Canadian experience is on file. And, so on so forth for the other categories. The objective here is to review whether you meet the program threshold and what you claim is correct. If there is any suspicion, or things don't sound good, the agent can send you application for further review. Which includes an interview, extra doc request etc. If the applicant meets the requirements, and his score is over the cut off for the ITA she received, his eligibility is passed. If there are issues, they will be addressed. This usually happens at the LVO. This stage happens when the application is usually 4-5 months into the process. At this stage, if the eligibility is met, the chances of refusal considerably go down, unless there is a criminal history. However, if your score goes down due to CIC not acknowledging your experience, NOC and reference letters not matching, or a change in age, the application is rejected.
9. As soon as the eligibility is met, next comes the security and criminality (or background check). Usually the criminality is met through the Police Clearance Certificates (PCC) uploaded with the application. If the applicant has been to a country which is suspicious, or your travel history does show frequent visits to a country without any explanation, the same are recorded and evaluated. If things look good, your criminality is passed. A lot of applicants receive a request for Schedule A at this stage to ensure no gap time is present and the history is clear.
10. The last and the final stage is the security. This is a serious & time-consuming stage, involving many agencies, including Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS), International Police (INTERPOL), Criminal Database Checking & touch-base with Local Police. Many things are considered here. Number of countries visited, Applicant coming from 'certain' countries, past law enforcement or military record, Prolonged stay in a country w/out sufficient docs to prove cause, frequent traveling to certain nations, your *Name (?), Inter-Religion/Nationality Marriages etc. If everything is simple & straight, the file soon gets into the 'final review' stage. If there are any 'red flags', the case goes into a 'spin'. Then the file might go to the local Police/intelligence agencies; the outcome/timeframe of which is beyond the control of CIC. And thereby the timeframe can be anything [sometimes beyond 1yr]. But, usually this stage should be over within 1-2 months. However, a point to be noted is that the applicant can also be called for an Interview [at this stage], due to this reason. For some people the security has a quick turn around. But in the last two weeks a lot of applicants are stuck at this stage.
11. At the final review, when the security results come in, the PPR is issued.
Now, this is NO way is a generalization of the process. Some applications are processed much faster, some are slow. This is what I could gather from my GCMS notes, my experience with dealing with the immigration authorities in US on behalf of my clients and my personal application which is still in progress.
This is only for information to provide a picture about the process, but CIC has never disclosed their processing procedure. However, looking into some immigration cases, and the information through the GCMS notes available on the forum, this is the best generalization I could come up with. Albeit, for some applicants the criminality is done before the eligibility is checked, for other after. So please don't debate as to how one case you saw was different from what I have stated.
This is just an overview. If you do not find it appealing, just ignore it. If it was up to me, I would process all applications much faster.
But, this is a long wait and probably the most important decision you will make in your life. Be optimistic, helpful and supportive of others. This forum is an excellent resource for many, so even when you receive your PPR, please hang on for a few more months and update your timelines and answer any questions other applicants may have. Don't be a parasite.
. I got ITA right after the new year and submitted everything for PR application on January 31 2016. Two weeks into February my application was cancelled as my home country noncriminal record was too old (yup, stupid me. I used the same noncriminal record which I used to obtain visitor visa back from 2011! :'() I got a full refund but I had to enter EE pool again. And somehow I was lucky to be invited second time with a score of 454. We all know what happened afterwards.