Brother, I got your point. I apologize if my reply was harsh. I have modified it by the way
The point I wanted to mention here is that so many people are reading this thread. And you know nowadays rumors spread in seconds. Tomorrow you will hear it back from someone and you will take is seriously because according to your calculation it makes sense (regarding 50%).
To guys and girls who didn't submit their applications yet, you still have time to apply if your NOC is not one of the hot list (that reached cap or more than 500-600 applications till the last cap update). Be optimistic and submit
Best wishes for everyone