Jkal said:
How did you get this info? Could you please share the source?
I first calculated the rate of influx of applicants with CRS scores higher than 453. You can find the details of the calculations in my previous posts. In the last 6 months the rate has been around 78 applicants per day in the multiple time points I calculated, and accordingly the total ITA count as of June 26th is ~13000.
Now, the spread sheet on this forum has a nice distribution curve of CRS scores. The distribution might be biased to some extent as the entries were not randomly selected, but otherwise I assumed it is statistically reasonable as the sample size is quite large (> 1200).
From the distribution one can easily estimate the number of backlogs at any score range by calculating a ratio of the counts in the range to the counts above 453. For example, there are 225 counts of scores above 453 in the spread sheet. If you want to estimate the number of backlogs between 434 and 452, for example, count the number of entries in that range (110) and calculate a ratio to the number of entries above 453 (0.49). If you use the total ITA counts (12928), then multiplying the count to the ratio yields 6320 backlogs as of June 26th. If you use the rate of influx, then (0.49 * 78 applicants/day * 193 days) gives 7360 backlogs as of today.