60,689 candidates active in the pool as of October 3rd.

[jianxia15]

This is a snapshot presented at Immigration Law Summit according to CIC NEWs.

http://www.cicnews.com/2016/11/express-entry-human-capital-skills-experience-more-prominent-under-new-system-118705.html

It would be useful to find the rest of the snapshots and related PDF.

Could experts like Alexios please help analyze? Thanks.

 

[vensak]

This is a snapshot presented at Immigration Law Summit according to CIC NEWs.

http://www.cicnews.com/2016/11/express-entry-human-capital-skills-experience-more-prominent-under-new-system-118705.html

It would be useful to find the rest of the snapshots and related PDF.

Could experts like Alexios please help analyze? Thanks.

The problem of that article is that is a bit misleading. You cannot compare static amount of candidates (amount of active account at the certain date) against the quantity that was achieved within some period of time (ITAs issued in 2016).
Thing is that the main pool is replenishing as fast as the draws are made.

 

[Alexios07]

Thanks for your kind words, but I am no experts like Asivac or Stanlee. I just spend more time playing with Google than other members here.

I believe we can find the presentation file through the CBA website which requires membership. However, I think the guy who did the presentation is Philip Somogyvari, Director of Immigration Strategies and Analysis from IRCC, based on the Summit agenda:

https://store.lsuc.on.ca/Plugins/ProductAttachments/DownloadFile/bc915f80-7b73-415a-91af-20b64b851402

 

[Calgary2014]

Let's suppose that 4000 applicants are entering the pool every month (this is a reasonable assumption based on the 2015 year end report and this new data)
From October 3rd to November 30th 8000 new applicants have entered the pool which bring us to about 48000 applicants by November 30th.
We've had 4 draws after October 3rd with total ITAs of 7829
So we'll have about 40000 active applicants in the pool by next draw.
About 20,000 ITAs have been issued since Jan 2016. Let's say 40% of the ITAs were issued to job offer holders (rough estimate based on 2015 year end report). Suppose 20% of them could have claimed score above 400 without the LMIA score. That means only 1600 of them would have got invitation if the cutoff was 450 and their LMIAs were worth 50-200 score. that means 6400 of them which is 32% of the ITAs would have been issued to other applicants in the pool.
Now let's suppose 15% of the folks in the pool are international grads and 66% of them had CRS of above 420 by Nov 19th and 30 points have been awarded to them (which is very unlikely as almost half of them are eligible to get only 15 points). that means 4000 of them are now sitting above 450. Now suppose 20% (1200) of int grads are now sitting above 470 which is almost twice the numbers of LMIA holders (with CRS below 400 without counting their 600pts).
In conclusion, I believe even if we experience the increase in cutoff, that would only be for two draws and after that the cutoff starts to drop (slowly, because of the high number of applicants sitting between 450 and 469)

 

[jianxia15]

What do them mean by active candidates?

The previous snapshot of the pool in March indicates 1% of the active candidates with higher score than 450. This seems impossible for this snapshot?

But even if there are 10% that are higher than 450, there is only around 6,000? is that possible?

 

[vensak]

What do them mean by active candidates?

The previous snapshot of the pool in March indicates 1% of the active candidates with higher score than 450. This seems impossible for this snapshot?

But even if there are 10% that are higher than 450, there is only around 6,000? is that possible?

problem is that the group of 450+ is the one that is moving the fastest from all. Would the EE been left several months without any draws, the amount of candidates in this group would be increasing reaching almost 25% of all candidates (we can get that assumption from the amounts of released ITA in 2016).
With the new rules, there will be decrease of applicants with score 600+, but at the same time same or bigger amount of applicants from the group 400-450 will jump to the group 450+

So I do not expect any significant drop of the current score.

 

[jianxia15]

Yeah, the score is unlikely to drop soon, but i do not think 25% of the candidates in the pool have >450 scores.

 

[vensak]

Yeah, the score is unlikely to drop soon, but i do not think 25% of the candidates in the pool have >450 scores.

In the static Picture of course not. But in the dynamic Picture yes. Like every 2 weeks there will come new applicants (lets say 4000) and certain percentage of them will be above 450. Then also during those 2 weeks, some applicants improve their score to reach over 450 (PNP, full year of Canada employment, LMIA, finished studies....).
Then the upper 2000 candidates (also the average is more like 1500) will be taken away (ITA recieved).
But if there would be no ITA, the number of those above 450 would be increasing.

So if you compare amount of ITA issued during the year against Flash Picture of amount of candidates in the EE at certain date, you will get those 25 to 30%.
If you compare amount of ITA issued against amount of EE active accounts during the year (practicaly you will count together EE candidates in the pool at certain moment and nominated candidates), then the % will drop to around 18%.

That is the reality behind.

 

[Calgary2014]

In the static Picture of course not. But in the dynamic Picture yes. Like every 2 weeks there will come new applicants (lets say 4000) and certain percentage of them will be above 450. Then also during those 2 weeks, some applicants improve their score to reach over 450 (PNP, full year of Canada employment, LMIA, finished studies....).
Then the upper 2000 candidates (also the average is more like 1500) will be taken away (ITA recieved).
But if there would be no ITA, the number of those above 450 would be increasing.

So if you compare amount of ITA issued during the year against Flash Picture of amount of candidates in the EE at certain date, you will get those 25 to 30%.
If you compare amount of ITA issued against amount of EE active accounts during the year (practicaly you will count together EE candidates in the pool at certain moment and nominated candidates), then the % will drop to around 18%.

That is the reality behind.

4000 applicants every two weeks? that's not realistic

 

[vensak]

4000 applicants every two weeks? that's not realistic

It can be very very realistic. Let us compare following:
At the beginning January, there were also 60000 applicants in the pool. Profile is deemed as active only if it is not ineligible or if it did not receive ITA.
Now. In October, after 10 months of ITA sitation is the very same. That is after another 20k ITA.

So at very least, the whole system points out that the pool is replenishin at the speed of ITA, Which is app. 500+ new profiles every week. In reality it is even more, but not all are made correctly, hence they will become ineligible fast. Also some profiles do expire, but most of the owners will recreate them.

 

[Calgary2014]

It can be very very realistic. Let us compare following:
At the beginning January, there were also 60000 applicants in the pool. Profile is deemed as active only if it is not ineligible or if it did not receive ITA.
Now. In October, after 10 months of ITA sitation is the very same. That is after another 20k ITA.

So at very least, the whole system points out that the pool is replenishin at the speed of ITA, Which is app. 500+ new profiles every week. In reality it is even more, but not all are made correctly, hence they will become ineligible fast. Also some profiles do expire, but most of the owners will recreate them.

There were about 60,000 applicant in the pool at the beginning of 2016
http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/resources/reports/ee-year-end-2015.asp
after 9 months, there are still the same number of applicants in the pool
20,000 ITA have been issued in the mean time.
That means only 2300 entries per months. You said 4000 every two weeks which is almost equal to 8000 per month

 

[vensak]

There were about 60,000 applicant in the pool at the beginning of 2016
http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/resources/reports/ee-year-end-2015.asp
after 9 months, there are still the same number of applicants in the pool
20,000 ITA have been issued in the mean time.
That means only 2300 entries per months. You said 4000 every two weeks which is almost equal to 8000 per month

4000 every 2 weeks was going only under assumption of the latest draws that were bigger. So my bad if I have overestimated. However that might be the reality in the future. The way things are running, higher and higher % of applicants will be pushed to go through EE and not to use old paper based applications anymore.