21st Draw- 20th November. Scores might drop

[JoacRy]

I agree with your analysis. In the event we want to speculate, all we have are recent trends which broadly are the following:

1) CIC chooses 1,500 candidates +/-
2) Draw takes place every 2-3 weeks (for the last 3-4 months)

To all new Forum members, any other comments on immigrant intake/possible CRS points threshold else may not be based on reality as the score is a function of the number of people they want to take in.

 

[redfox05]

I agree with your analysis. In the event we want to speculate, all we have are recent trends which broadly are the following:

1) CIC chooses 1,500 candidates +/-
2) Draw takes place every 2-3 weeks (for the last 3-4 months)

To all new Forum members, any other comments on immigrant intake/possible CRS points threshold else may not be based on reality as the score is a function of the number of people they want to take in.

The most sensible and simple thing said on this thread. Thanks.

And yes, I think the mods should allow just one thread, or one forum for predictions. Sigh, its getting too much

 

[nickarter84]

I agree! He has a right to opinion.

And while he does, he should learn to offer his opinion responsibly. Just like the EE pool keeps growing, this forum has new member everyday. So therefore, it would not be nice for a new member who created his EE profile recently, doesn't yet understand the system, reads his prediction that the next draw scores will fall dramatically and makes an opinion that CIC uses probability and mathematics to set CRS cut off for the draws..

Basically, his posts may mislead people.

This forum has provided reliable and useful information, let's keep it that way please.

I do agree with this....

 

[bestofluck]

May I delve into the depths of your wisdom? What is a probability to flip tails on a 100-th coin flip, if first 99 were heads?

its 50 an Its 50. the probability is a pure mathematics. Hope u know mathematics or may be you just know English and good at IELTS!

 

[bestofluck]

;D ;D ;D ;D ;D LOL

Instead of saying LOL you could have answered it as 50. The answer was 50.

 

[royalking]

Update on CRS:

CIC spokesperson says CRS point’s requirement likely to go down over time:

At the 23rd Annual Immigration Law Summit held earlier this month in Toronto, Ontario, a spokesperson for Citizenship and Immigration Canada (CIC) made some notable comments about the past, present, and future of draws made from the Express Entry pool.

The main takeaway, however, is that the CRS point requirement for Express Entry draws is likely to go down. Foremost among the forecasts made by CIC is that the total intake of economic immigrants to Canada through Express Entry is set to increase once the backlog of applications from 2014 has been cleared.

More recently, however, the CRS points requirement has increased. The CIC spokesperson stated that this is largely due to the fact that many provinces did not open their Express Entry Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) streams, through which successful candidates may obtain an additional 600 CRS points, until months after the system was launched. As a result, there has been a rush of PNP certificates being issued to proactive candidates in the Express Entry pool. This has had the effect of increasing the number of candidates who have received an additional 600 CRS points.

With both an LMIA rush and a PNP rush out of the way — together with the 2014 backlog being cleared and CIC having previously stated that “Express Entry will become the main source of applications to meet annual immigration levels targets” — CIC has said that it expects the CRS requirement for Express Entry draws to drop over time.

 

[bestofluck]

;D ;D ;D Good one!

You also dint know the answer was 50. Try mathematics rather than only being happy with IELTS

 

[bestofluck]

Hi Bestofluck,

I was very much free at office today, so thought of digging some useful links for the probability and draws predictions available on this forum,
Kindly go through all these threads.

http://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-discussion-board/19th-draw-any-guessing-t366147.0.html;msg4714706#msg4714706

http://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-discussion-board/19th-draw-any-guessing-t366147.0.html

http://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-discussion-board/2oth-draw-519-t368521.0.html;msg4725478#msg4725478

http://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-discussion-board/no-draw-on-30th-a-disappointing-ee-scores-will-be-900-on-13th-nov-t373723.0.html

http://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-discussion-board/20th-draw-anyone-expects-it-on-3oth-october-t372716.0.html

http://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-discussion-board/anyone-expects-a-draw-today-there-has-been-a-draw-on-tuesday-pereviously-t378095.0.html

http://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-discussion-board/13th-november-a-big-draw-awaits-t379124.0.html;msg4769959#msg4769959

http://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-discussion-board/20th-draw-a-big-one-t370909.0.html

http://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-discussion-board/21st-draw-20th-november-scores-might-drop-t382906.0.html

I was annoyed with the some spam threads(Something in chinese, I really don't understand purpose of those either), then I gladly managed to search for this thread hidden in all those.

All of the above threads are created by "1 person", but you might some useful inputs from the replies in those threads for next prediction.a


I was just thinking "Can't we have just 1 thread,something like 'Prediction of next draw' " ? So that next time someone like me don't have to waste his/her IDLE time to look for helpful links for Future draw predictions, It would be great to have all the "MATHEMATICS"(I really could never understand the probability thing) clubbed at one place.

Cheers...

Good IDea. Appreciated. Next time I will do the same.

 

[bestofluck]

OMG! All of them started by the same guy !!!

@bestofluck -With all due respect, what are you trying to do here? Why so many "prediction" threads and rhetorical and invalid posts? Why are you earning yourself such a huge -ve rating? You are only making it difficult for new people who might think your advice is correct and follow it. Please stop this abomination. You are very welcome to post something that actually makes some sense. Thanks!

Simple, I am waiting here in the pool. Not getting PT from Ontario and so positively waiting here to get ITA when scores drop below 450.

 

[bestofluck]

I agree! He has a right to opinion.

And while he does, he should learn to offer his opinion responsibly. Just like the EE pool keeps growing, this forum has new member everyday. So therefore, it would not be nice for a new member who created his EE profile recently, doesn't yet understand the system, reads his prediction that the next draw scores will fall dramatically and makes an opinion that CIC uses probability and mathematics to set CRS cut off for the draws..

Basically, his posts may mislead people.

This forum has provided reliable and useful information, let's keep it that way please.

What was wrong on the thread. I gave you dates of Draw which was 7 days apart. Anything wrong? Just tell me what was incorrect. You guys have a grudge against me but I cant help it out. Speculation or prediction is nothing wrong. In ur day to day life you peculate many things. So dont be rude and do what you like and let me do what i like. I have given perfect dates of draws. % draws of 20 have been in 7 days period. cant I expect it one more ? I mean whats so scary? Are u afraid I would be right one day ?

 

[bestofluck]

While I don't subscribe to bestofluck's train of thought, I think he / she has a right to opinion.

Who are we to say this is an abuse of expression. You don't like it, don't read it.

Very clearly written "Scores might drop".

Clear speculation but hey, who says wishful thinking is a crime. Cmon secretly we hope bestofluck is wrong and the scores are lower than 450

My 2 bits - Christmas is coming, nothing is going to change (new year, new hopes, new quota)

peace!

Thanks a lot for being reasonable.

 

[rajkamalmohanram]

Simple, I am waiting here in the pool. Not getting PT from Ontario and so positively waiting here to get ITA when scores drop below 450.

"Waiting in the EE pool" is not an excuse for providing false hope.

Done with you. I am reporting you to the mods.

 

[bestofluck]

Actually, this time I do agree with bestofluck's conclusions, if not with how he got there- I think that there is a high probability for the scores to drop in the next draw, whenever that is.

Well thanks this time.

 

[bestofluck]

I don't think we can predict the draw score at all, for it will change according to CIC's plans. In case of bestofluck, he shouldn't create too many speculation threads, if he wants, he can create a general thread and post all the speculations in there. I also have a quote for him: "Hope is the first step on the road to disappointment."

Sometimes hope is good, but do not raise your hope too high and put all your mind to it, because when it fails, so does your sanity.

accepted. good advise

 

[bestofluck]

I agree with your analysis. In the event we want to speculate, all we have are recent trends which broadly are the following:

1) CIC chooses 1,500 candidates +/-
2) Draw takes place every 2-3 weeks (for the last 3-4 months)

To all new Forum members, any other comments on immigrant intake/possible CRS points threshold else may not be based on reality as the score is a function of the number of people they want to take in.

The draw takes every 2-3 weeks but the fact is 5 times out of 20 it has happened in a time span of 7 days. see the facts.