Actually nothing applies to me, my friend. I understand you completely here, we all are trying to decode the process. I had NOC 2121, so no demand or anything. Education from a good Indian University but nowhere good on world statistics, ranking around 400.
No relatives in Canada at all. And I was the one of the lucky people who saw the beginning of quick PPRs from Ottawa, but had no advantage on all 3 grounds you mentioned.
Trust me, NOC, education and relatives play no role whatsoever. I was just lucky (with god's grace) to be shipped off to Ottawa and had real nice Visa officer. Logically, I had no travel history and no past refusal or application ever to any other country ever (study visit etc.), I believe my case was really easy to process and check background, I had only one job, worked in the same company for 2.5 years, single, no criminal record or multiple address changes etc., no gaps. So all these factors combined with getting a good Visa officer who was efficient and quick enough to process file quickly, my PPR was one of the first few in May batch.
I believe its 90% dumb luck (or whatever you call it) here, on how quick we get a PPR. Sadly all people with past refusal have to go through CIO-LVO route, its mandatory, so that is the only logic that is applying to the file stuck at NDVO as of now. Point is if NDVO was efficient it would have only caused a delay of month for people stuck at NDVO, as that is the only extra time which is needed at CIO. But as NDVO is very slow, even now they are sending March PPRs like 2-3 per day, so even if they work, they work extremely slow. Its the Visa Office against us nothing else i believe.
Like you my friend I will share my view also on this delay tell me what you guys think too-
The people who got updates on 22 August were just again lucky enough to be picked up, as the Visa officer opened that specific batch, all were among late April to mid may AORs, so some visa Officer opened the batch and issued updates. Then it is evident that there policy changed suddenly, they shifted to concentration on PNPs and people hitting 180 day mark which was mostly Feb/March AORs.
So I believe the late may and mid June people are in the same batch and our batch has not been opened till now due to this change of work concentration on their part.
Our friend wan11u had a past rejection and his file was opened merely 14 days after being transferred from CIO and issued IP2 and PPR the next day. His GCMS clearly shows that his file was opened a day before he was issued IP2 and then next day PPR. So within 3 days and only few working hours, the Visa officer cleared his file. This shows that they do not need extra time for any reviews for past refusals also. Some people I see, think that the files are being delayed due to extra checking etc. are deluding themselves, our files are gathering dust and waiting for someone too look into them. It takes only 3 hours at maximum to finalise the file, they have all the access to all the data they need on their desks. only very very rare cases are delayed due to security screening.
NDVO is simply less efficient, Ottawa is sending PPRs in 20-25 days even now, and it is processing PNP inland, FSW Outlands, CEC Inland CEC outland, US applicants , stamping Passports etc. so thinking that NDVO has much more work then Ottawa is also wrong (apart from the time study rush is there). Its simple, Ottawa has clear priority for FSW Outlands, and they are showing exceptional efficiency in that. NDVO is showing no such efficiency as of now for any stream.
I strongly believe that fate of our file (if all is ok) depends on the Visa Office and the Visa officer, how quickly the Visa Office opens a batch to process and how efficient and nice your Visa officer is. I have seen 3 cases who had files approved in 5 months at NDVO, but NDVO issued a PPR to them a year after approval, the said people kept on ordering set of GCMS and raising CSEs, still it took a year for NDVO to respond. i know our rational mind wants some logic pattern to evaluate our situation, but I think there is none here. All we can do is wait patiently and pray as there are many random factors which influence the processing of files. Also we know from many our friends cases that NDVO does not care about due dates.
If NDVO starts processing April folks in September, we end May and mid-June people might have a hope till at least November beginning, that is what the current trend predicts, i really hope this changes though. And also hope they don't start processing study files for January after mid October otherwise it will be again a huge delay.
Really praying for the best for all of us.
